201
FXUS63 KBIS 222129
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
329 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild conditions through the weekend.

- Below average temperatures beginning Tuesday and continuing
  through the end of November.

- High chances for accumulating snow Monday night through
  Tuesday evening with a medium chance for at least 2 inches of
  snow over much of western and central North Dakota.

- Strong northwest winds are forecast Monday night through
  Wednesday, with the strongest winds on Tuesday. The
  combination of falling snow and blowing and drifting snow
  could make travel hazardous late Monday night through Tuesday
  evening.

- Although it`s too far out for details, there is increasing
  confidence in an active weather pattern which could impact
  travel across the region after Thanksgiving.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 108 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Mild and dry conditions are expected through Sunday. Lows in the
mid 20s to lower 30s tonight. Highs on Sunday could approach 60
degrees in some areas. It may be a bit breezy at times Sunday
afternoon, but for the most part we expect generally light west
to southwest winds. A good day to do any last minute outdoor
activities or winterizing, before below normal temperatures
return on Tuesday and continue through the end of November.

Monday will be a transition day from broad upper level ridge
which has been in control for the past several days, to a colder
northwest upper flow. Overall, Monday should shape up to be a
pretty nice day as well, especially farther south and east.
Highs should still remain around 50 along the South Dakota
Border, with highs near 40 along the International Border. The
shortwave that moves onto the Pacific Northwest Coast and track
across the Northern Rockies looks to bring increasing
precipitation chances over western ND Monday afternoon. The
shortwave tracks across the state late Monday night through
Tuesday. Rain initially Monday afternoon mixes with, and changes
to snow Monday night from northwest to southeast. Winds
initially (out of the east) are not forecast to be that strong.
But once the wave passes, northwest winds will increase.
Depending on how things play out we could see some blowing and
drifting snow by early Tuesday morning over western ND. The snow
and blowing and drifting snow will propagate eastward through
the day on Tuesday. By 00Z Wednesday, High pressure is becoming
situated over western ND with precipitation exiting the James
River Valley. Depending on snow amounts, some blowing and
drifting snow may linger over central ND Tuesday evening.

Looking at the WPC superensemble viewer, there is quite a bit
of uncertainty in the track of the system and resulting path of
heavier snow, ranging from southern Canada to northern South
Dakota. However if you average them all out you`d probably get
something similar to the NBM. The NBM showed medium
probabilities (40 to 70%) for at least 2 inches of snow across
most of western and central ND. The exception, at this time,
being the far southwest (with a low probability for at least 2
inches). Desi is showing about a 60 to 40 split with the slight
favoring (60%) to a slightly stronger system. The GEFS is the
major player in the stronger solution, with no membership in the
weaker solution. However, the trend of the GEFS today is more
progressive than previous runs, so when you compare the mean 24
hour snowfall for this system, there isn`t a whole lot of
difference between the higher (3-4 inch) GEFS solution and the
lower (1-1.5 inch) non-GEFS solution.

We utilized the Probability for at least 2 inches of snow for
our main messaging today. Hopefully getting the word out that
there`s a pretty good chance for some shovelable snow. When you
add the potential for some strong winds with blowing and
drifting snow, along with cold temperatures that do not climb
above freezing after the snow, the probability for travel
impacts increases.  Although it`s too early for snow
accumulations and such, we have pretty high confidence that we
will see at least minor travel impacts Monday evening through
Tuesday evening.

Wednesday and Thanksgiving day currently look to be mainly dry
as high pressure tracks southeast across the forecast area.
Highs on Wednesday will be in the lower 20s to lower 30s, then a
little cooler Thanksgiving Day with highs in the upper teens to
upper 20s. Lows Thanksgiving morning are forecast to be in the
single digits above zero into the lower teens.

Active weather may return Friday through Sunday with another
system tracking through the region and followed by another re-
enforcing shot of cold air. Stay tuned as the active weather
pattern could impact travel in the region for at least portions
of the Thanksgiving Holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1156 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the 18Z TAF period. Only mid
and high clouds expected through the period. A northwest surface
flow to begin the TAF period, a little gusty over eastern ND,
including KJMS but winds will begin to diminish by mid
afternoon. Winds become more southerly this evening around 5-10
knots and remain south to southwest Sunday morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH