300
FXUS63 KBIS 240411
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1011 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread accumulating snow late Monday afternoon through
  Tuesday evening.

- There is a medium to high chance for at least 4 inches of snow
  over most of northwest and central North Dakota, and a low
  chance for 8 inches or more of snow in this same area.

- Strong northwest winds are forecast Monday night through
  Wednesday, strongest on Tuesday. Snow combined with strong
  winds may cause areas of blowing and drifting snow during
  this time period.

- There remains increased confidence in a very cold and active
  pattern after Thanksgiving, which could lead to additional
  travel concerns for the end of the holiday weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

The near-term forecast remains on track. No significant changes
in snow expectations with 00Z model guidance that has arrived
thus far. CAMs favor a slight southward shift with the low
track, but their mean axis of highest snow amounts is not too
dissimilar from that of our current forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 625 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

The only notable forecast adjustment for this update was to
introduce a mention of patchy fog Monday morning across
northwest parts of the state. Model guidance favors clearing
there later tonight with weak surface to mid level ridging and
a deep near-surface layer of light winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

We have exceeded the 60 degree mark at the Bismarck Airport this
Sunday afternoon. We are still expecting a cool but quiet Sunday
evening and generally mild overnight low temperatures in the 20s
and lower 30s. Monday will also begin quiet enough, but with
increasing precipitation chances late in the day.

Confidence is increasing in widespread accumulating snow across
western and central North Dakota from Monday afternoon
(northwest) through Tuesday evening (James River Valley).
The potential for Warning criteria accumulations have also
increased some, and remain generally from northwest North Dakota
into the James River Valley. Given that we are entering the
the busy Holiday travel period, which is also our first
widespread accumulating snow of the season, we opted to issue a
Winter Storm Watch for Northwest and portions of central North
Dakota. We fully expect that some, maybe a majority of the
counties end up being a Winter Weather Advisory, but the
potential is there for Warning criteria snows. Currently the
area favored for Warning Criteria snow amounts extends from
around Crosby and Bowbells, to Minot, Harvey, Carrington and
Jamestown. We went with a county or two buffer around this
general area for the Watch.

Some reasons we went with the Watch:

1) The ECMWF SA Page points to an unusual snow event along and
north of Lake Sakakawea. The shift of tails is not high, but is
around 1, centered over northwest ND.

2) The WPC snowband probability tracker is indicating a decent
probability for an area of banded precipitation over northwest
and into north central ND. It also extends south of the lake
over northwest ND.

3) FG forcing is maximized over northwest ND and is strongest
around 850MB. Would like to see some stronger forcing at 70H but
there is some in the far northwest (GFS) and also later on over
eastern portions of central ND (NAM). Steep lapse rates and
moderate to strong QG forcing are evident over most of northwest
and central ND in this general timeframe. This leads to another
indicator for the potential for some banded precipitation.

4) The track of the 70H low tracks from northwest ND into the
south central/James River Valley and the upper low, as well as
the mid level low starts to deepen as it drops through this
area.

5) Very strong winds are expected on the back side of this
system. Where the strong winds line up with falling snow, you
could see a period of hazardous driving conditions due to low
visibilities in blowing and drifting snow.

6) It`s the first winter storm of the season and it`s the
busiest travel period of the season.

Some reasons why we were thinking advisory:

1) In general, we would prefer higher NBM probabilities than we
are currently getting, to increase our confidence in Warning
criteria snow. However, see #6 above.

2) It`s a pretty progressive system and deepening occurs as it`s
moving out of central ND. This limits the probability for any
one area to see warning criteria snowfall without some banding.

3) Surface temperatures are warm and of course there is no snow
currently on the ground, this will limit blowing and drifting
snow, especially early on. While the snow in the northwest and
to some extent the north central falls during the night, the
snow over the south central and into the JRV falls during the
day, which increases compaction and limits blowing snow
potential.

In addition to the Watch area, we will probably need either a
Wind Advisory or WSW for the southwest and far south central.
The far southwest could be flirting with HWW criteria winds.
However, the uncertainty in the combination of winds/falling and
blowing snow is too uncertain. It`s possible we end up with
both: wind highlights far southwest and a WSW to highlight the
potential for a combination of snow and blowing/drifting snow.
These type of situations are always tricky but are generally
best handled as we get closer to the event. Will pass this info
along to the evening shift.

After things wind down Tuesday, we do see a dry period Wednesday
and Thanksgiving day, although it will remain cold with highs
ranging from the upper teens to lower 30s.

Confidence continues to increase that we will see a very cold
Holiday weekend, with highs in the single digits and teens most
areas, and lows dropping below zero for many of us. It`s likely
the region will experience a clipper system prior to the shot of
Arctic air over the weekend. Whether or not the clipper tracks
across our neck of the woods remains to be seen.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1010 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

VFR conditions should prevail for all areas through Monday
morning, and for all but northwest North Dakota through Monday
afternoon. There is a low potential for patchy fog in northwest
North Dakota early Monday morning, but the probability is not
high enough to mention a visibility restriction in the KXWA TAF.
A storm system will begin to impact parts of western North
Dakota Monday afternoon, spreading into central North Dakota
Monday evening. The northwest is likely to see MVFR ceilings by
mid afternoon, with the rest of the state likely remaining at
VFR until Monday evening. Precipitation could begin in western
North Dakota as early as midday, with intensity picking up
through the afternoon in the northwest. KXWA is currently
forecast to remain along the rain/snow transition line through
Monday afternoon, but this could shift with future forecast
updates. Any precipitation falling to the south should stay rain
through the afternoon. Precipitation could reach KMOT as either
rain or snow late Monday afternoon. Light and variable winds
are expected at all terminals through the forecast period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
for NDZ001>005-009>013-017-021.
Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday
evening for NDZ022-023-025-035>037-047-048-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...Hollan