602
FXUS63 KBIS 032042
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
242 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very cold through Thursday morning with overnight wind chills
  as low as 25 below zero north and east of the Missouri River.

- Breezy west and central Thursday, and in the west again
  Friday. Patchy drifting snow is possible at times.

- An active weather pattern is forecast to continue through the
  weekend, with periodic low to medium chances for snow.

- Temperatures moderate Thursday and Friday, before cooling
  down for the weekend. Another warmup is forecast for the start
  of next work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

A northwest upper level flow pattern will remain in control
through the forecast period. This will bring periodic low to
medium chances for snow through the weekend and into the first
half of next week.

Currently, surface high pressure is centered over western and
central North Dakota. A surface trough was located in the lee of
the Canadian Rockies, with a warm front extending south through
central Montana. We also remain within a broad northwest upper
level flow. Skies were mostly clear east of the Highway 83
corridor, with slowly dissipating lower clouds over western ND.
Temperatures ranged from the lower single digits above zero
north, to around 10 above far southwest and south central.

For the rest of the afternoon and tonight. Expect a slow
continuation in the clearing across the west, but do not expect
skies to completely clear. Already by this evening we see the
aforementioned warm front begin propagating eastward with low to
mid level warm advection pushing into western ND. By 12Z
Thursday, the surface high has pushed well to our southeast and
the warm front has moved into western ND, with the surface low
tracking across southern Saskatchewan. Tonight will be a tough
night temperature wise, with clouds possibly inhibiting the
diurnal temperature drop in the west this evening. Then we do
expect temperatures to rise late evening and overnight. With the
clouds west, forecast lows may be too low, and with the clear
skies east, forecast lows may not be cold enough. We still do
have some lake effect snow showers this afternoon in the
forecast, but with winds shifting southerly, this should end for
tonight. Although a flurry or brief snow shower can not be
ruled out, went with a dry forecast for tonight.

Thursday is expected to be much warmer with highs in the upper
20s to mid 30s across western and central ND. A moderate
westerly wind will accompany the warmer temperatures on
Thursday and may produce some patchy drifting snow on Thursday.

Thursday night into Friday most guidance suggests a shortwave
trough dropping southeast through the forecast area, with warm
advection along a northwest to southeast baroclinic zone. This
areas looks to reside within an area of steep lapse rates as
well. Most of the CAMs indicate a swath of QPF across western
and central ND during this timeframe. Given NBM guidance was
quite splotchy and developed little if any qpf. Used a blend of
model guidance to get a more uniform area of PoPs spreading from
western into central ND during this timeframe. We`re sure more
adjustments will be needed as we get closer to Thursday night
but this blends will with our neighbors per collaboration. The
surface low with this clipper system tracks from Saskatchewan
Friday morning, into western Minnesota by 00Z Saturday, with
cold high pressure building over the area Saturday. On Saturday,
the surface high drops northwest to southeast across the
forecast area. Southwest ND will be on the return flow side of
the surface high, and nearest to the baroclinic zone that sets
up over north central through southeast Montana. Light snow will
be possible along the baroclinic zone, on the back side of the
surface high. Depending on where the baroclinic zone ends up,
this could include the southwest half of the state, or possibly
just clip the southwest corner of the state.

Both of these systems (Thursday night into Friday and Friday
night through Saturday) look to be low impact events, with
generally light snow amounts. However, given the cold
temperatures and high SLR values, each could drop an inch or two
of snow in some areas. If you put the two events together, the
developmental NBM indicates a moderate to high probability of
greater than an inch of snow over much of western ND, tapering
to around a 20 to 40 percent chance (for an inch or more of
snow) along the Highway 83 corridor. The probability for 2 or
more inches of snow remains moderate over portions of far
western ND (40-50% far west central) and drops to less than 20
percent along the Highway 83 corridor.

The near daily barrage of impulses will keep at least some low
chance pops in the forecast through the middle of next week. We
do see temperatures warm well into the 30s and possibly lower
40s over southwest ND next Mon-Tue. Although an inch or two of
snow could tamper those forecast highs a bit. However, much of
northwest and central ND warm into the 20s and lower 30s Monday
and Tuesday as well, with the Turtle Mountains area remaining
in the low to mid 20s. We then cool back down by mid-week, but
ensemble spreads in both the high and low temperatures increase
greatly by mid-week so confidence in the extent of cooling
remains low at this time.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

VFR conditions to begin the 18Z TAF period at KJMS, otherwise,
MVFR stratus remains a problem over the western half of ND.
Satellite shows skies clearing slowly over western ND, but still
a lot of clouds around. Models are not doing a good job and are
clearing things out too fast. In general, do expect decreasing
clouds west, but lingering MVFR cloudiness can not be ruled out
today. Another round of stratus drops south from Canada later
tonight into Thursday so any breaks in MVFR cloudiness we do see
overnight will end from north to south with the next approaching
batch of clouds. Surface flow generally northwest 5-15 knots to
begin the forecast period, but shifting south from west to east
late today into this evening. Surface flow shifts westerly from
west to east Thursday morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH