161
FXUS63 KBIS 120014
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
614 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend through the week, with temperatures peaking on
  Friday (Forecast highs mid 50s to mid 60s, with some upper
  60s).

- Chances for widespread precipitation are low through the
  weekend.

- Breezy across the entire forecast area today, and in the east
  on Wednesday. Breezy winds may return on Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 611 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Sky cover was modified to account for latest satellite imagery
and trends for this evening. Will keep a mention of patchy fog
in the west for later tonight/Wed morning, as sfc high pressure
builds into western ND overnight. All other forecast elements
are on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Breezy northwest winds with a few mid to high level clouds will
be found through this evening. These breezy winds are also
providing for some warmer temperatures in the 50s today.
Tonight, surface ridge will remain in the west, while northwest
flow remains aloft. The result will be dry conditions with
diminishing winds. If winds can diminish and skies can clear,
there could be some patchy fog tonight. The higher probability
for this to occur would be in western ND where some patchy fog
was added into the forecast, although the overall chances for
fog is low tonight given dry conditions in place. The Space
Weather Prediction Center has a G4 Severe Geomagnetic Storm
Watch for tonight through tomorrow night. This could result in
northern lights across the state both nights. Northwest flow
aloft could keep some mid to high clouds at times tonight,
although most of the state should be mainly clear tonight. Lows
tonight will generally be in the 20s. Surface ridging will move
across the state on Wednesday. Ahead of this ridge could see
lingering breezy northwest winds, mainly in eastern portions of
the state. Most of the state will see lighter winds and mainly
clear skies. Cooler temperatures will also be found with the
lack of wind, with highs forecast in the 40s and 50s. As this
ridge moves eastward Wednesday night, increasing mid to high
level clouds are expected with southwest and warming flow aloft.
Mainly dry conditions are still forecast, however, increased
cloud cover may limit views of any returning northern lights
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Lows will remain mild for
this time of year and mainly in the 20s to lower 30s.

Westerly flow aloft with a developing surface low is then
forecast to bring warming temperatures both Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures look to peak Friday, with widespread highs in the
60s. Dry air aloft from this westerly flow will keep dry
conditions forecast through Friday. Perhaps some lowering of
afternoon RH is possible with this dry and warm air. Winds
however look to be less breezy than recent days.

A cold front may then move through Friday night into Saturday.
NBM currently has a dry forecast, although there are some
indications at least brief rain and snow showers are possible
from passage of this front. Post frontal conditions are then
forecast for Saturday, with cooler temperatures and breezy winds
in the forecast. ECMWF EFI values are currently low, indicating
a low chance advisory or high wind criteria winds at this time.
Less wind and continued dry conditions are forecast for Sunday.
Clusters indicate another at least brief trough moving through
late weekend or early next week. However there is some
variability on how this trough interacts with a developing
ridge. NBM introduces some PoPs late in the weekend into early
next week. Temperatures spreads are high given the uncertainty,
with NBM forecasting near normal temperatures at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the 00Z forecast period.
Mid to high level clouds will move across the area at times,
with heights remaining at VFR levels. Mainly VFR conditions
with less breezy winds are forecast on Wednesday, with some mid
to high level clouds across the region again.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...NH