912
FXUS63 KBIS 110845
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
245 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with a warming trend through the week, with temperatures
  peaking on Friday (Forecast highs lower 50s north to lower 60s
  south).

- Breezy across the entire forecast area today, and in the east
  on Wednesday.

- Precipitation chances return Friday night into Saturday, along
  with a cooling trend (but still above average temperatures)
  through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Currently northwest flow is over the Northern Plains, while
zonal flow moves on shore in the Pacific Northwest. Downstream a
large upper level low sits near Toronto with a large trough
wrapping around it. At the surface a warm front and cold front
combo is sweeping through the Dakotas. Temperatures across
southern and central North Dakota have warmed from the mid 30s
around midnight, to the lower 40s at 2am! Across the northwest
part of the state sits the cold front.

Today the cold front passage will be a dry one, but it will
turn winds to the northwest across the state and create breezy
non-advisory winds. Highs will range from the 40s to 50s.
Average temperatures today are in the lower 40s across the area.
Wednesday will be similar except the breezy winds will stay in
the eastern part of the state from the pressure gradient force
from a passing clipper system in Minnesota. Thursday a ridge
moves through, warming temperatures even more. Expect highs in
the southwest to reach the low 60s. Depending how fast the snow
melts in the north central, they will eventually warm into the
50s too. Friday will be the warmest day as flow switches the
southwest.

Friday through the weekend, a shortwave trough and cold front
will cool temperatures slightly into the 50s. With the trough
and front, rain chances return to the state, although it is
currently remaining a slight (20%) chance. After this weekend a
stronger clipper system will develop and slide through
Minnesota. North Dakota will be on the backside of this, so
below average high temperatures could return on Tuesday. Since
this is so far out, forecast confidence in the actual
temperatures is lower.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR with wind shear overnight at most terminals. Then VFR the
rest for the period. Winds will turn northwest tonight and gust
near 25knots through Tuesday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Smith