483
FXUS63 KBIS 132107
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
307 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend through the remainder of the work week, with
  temperatures peaking on Friday. Forecast highs on Friday
  range from the upper 50s far north to the lower 70s southwest.

- Light rain is expected to accompany a cold front moving
  through on Friday night. Precipitation chances are then low
  through the weekend before increasing for next work week, with
  widespread 20 to 40 percent chances for precipitation through
  midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

This afternoon, shallow ridging was moving over the Montana area,
with upstream troughing off both the coast of the western CONUS and
off the coast of British Columbia. Underneath the northern trough
axis, a surface low was deepening in south central Alberta,
with the attendant warm front extending southeast of the center
of the low through North Dakota. Plentiful low-level warm air
advection and enough daytime mixing has helped boost
temperatures to well above average, and even past what forecast
highs were. Numerous locations across southwest North Dakota
have reached 70 degrees F, including Dickinson, which has tied
the previous record high of 70 degrees set back in 1939. Some
high clouds associated with embedded energy aloft continued to
move through the forecast area, but otherwise a quiet and
seasonably warm afternoon continues. Calm conditions persist
tonight, with mild overnight lows in the lower 30s to lower 40s.

Friday has consistently been advertised as the warmest day of the
week, with one last day in the warm sector ahead of an approaching
cold front. We have been consistently overperforming on high
temperatures every day this week, and with breezy southwest to west
winds and the EFI signal, did opt to nudge up forecast high
temperatures for tomorrow. This paints widespread highs in the 60s,
with some locations expected to reach 70 degrees F on Friday,
although if today is any indication those temperatures could be even
warmer. The ECMWF EFI has a slight shift of tails across western
North Dakota for the low temperature Thursday night into Friday.
Dickinson is the main area we have medium potential for breaking
records on the 14th, both the daily high temperature (68 degrees in
1953), and the daily high minimum temperature (39 degrees in 1987).

The timing of Friday`s cold front will likely influence highs in the
northwest and along the International Border, but would not expect
any influence to the southwest where temperatures are forecast to be
the warmest. CAMs are consistent in advertising light rain along
the front, so carrying a 20 to 40 percent late Friday afternoon
through Friday night, from northwest to southeast. However, what
rain might fall will be light, with a very low probability of
exceeding 0.10 inch of rain. A few snowflakes could mix in on
the back end but overall this frontal passage looks low impact.
There is not much of a wind signal with this front, so although
we anticipate breezy winds along and behind the front, not expecting
them to be strong enough to warrant any headlines.

The only real influence of the front will be to knock temperatures
back down a bit closer to average, with forecast highs on Saturday
and Sunday in the upper 30s in the Turtle Mountains area to the
lower 50s in the far southwest. Winds will likely be a bit breezy in
our eastern counties on Saturday in the wake of the cold front, but
a surface high is progged to move in quickly which will help lessen
the pressure gradient.

The synoptic pattern next work week looks a bit messy. Ensemble
cluster analysis has no real handle on any sort of dominant pattern
at this point, with variations of southwest or split flow that at
various times bring shortwaves and associated precipitation to the
area. For now we are carrying a broad 20 to 35 percent chance for
precipitation Monday through Wednesday, but not a lot of confidence
in the actual timing or strength of any of these systems, and what
type of precipitation would end up falling. Higher confidence
exists in temperatures cooling down and staying near normal,
with NBM temperature percentiles highlighting high temperatures
in the 30s through the end of the work week. CIPs Extended
Analogs are hinting at anomalously cold air filtering in
potentially next weekend and into the start of Thanksgiving
Week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the TAF period.
Some high clouds will move through the area, with generally
light and somewhat variable winds this afternoon becoming more
southwesterly through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Jones