669
FXUS63 KBIS 141107
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
607 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cool temperatures today, then warming back up to
  near or slightly above average mid to late week.

- Periods of rain today through Friday, with a few thunderstorms
  possible mainly late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
  night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 607 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Rain continues expanding across the southwest and south central
early this morning, and will lift northward through the day
today. Increased PoPs where the largest concentration of rain is
present. All in all, the forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 432 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Currently, southerly to southwesterly flow aloft is occurring
over the Northern Plains as upper level low pressure churns off
the coast of California, and upper level high pressure is
present over the southern CONUS. This is resulting in WAA over
the Dakotas, while embedded shortwave energy passes through the
state today. Combined, these are generating isolated to
scattered showers. As of this writing, these showers are already
present in the southwest, and will lift north through the day
and into the evening hours. Overall, not expecting a lot of
moisture today with totals generally limited to a few
hundredths of an inch or less, though localized amount of
around a tenth of an inch are possible, especially in the
southeast.

At the surface, low pressure will organize over the desert
southwest through the day today, then then over Colorado
Wednesday. Rather than tightly winding up, current model trends
favor this low to become elongated over the Northern Plains
through the day Thursday before reorganizing over southern
Manitoba Thursday night and Friday. This will likely produce
multiple rounds of rain in the forecast area, though some
questions remain in just how widespread rain will be, and the
duration of rain over any particular area.

A few thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday afternoon,
mainly in the southwest, then across the state Wednesday night.
Overall, instability looks pretty limited, however, there is a
fair amount of shear. As such a strong storm or two isn`t
entirely out of the question. However, based on the timing, more
favorable conditions are more likely than not to remain in
South Dakota. SPC brings the day 2 marginal outlook to the
border of Sioux County, while CSU machine learning brings their
marginal equivalent into parts of southwest and south central ND
near the ND/SD border. All in all, a strong storm or two is not
out of the question. However, more general thunderstorm
activity is favored to prevail.

Once this system clears out, expect mostly dry conditions
through the weekend. Temperatures for today will be seasonably
cool for most of the state with highs mostly in the 40s,
however, the far southwest will be a bit warmer and may reach
the mid 50s. Seasonable high temperatures mostly in the 50s are
then expected through the remainder of the week, though
occasional readings in the low 60s are likely as well for some
locations, some days. Lows will be mostly in the 30s and 40s
through the remainder of the workweek, and possibly cooler for
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 607 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Despite mostly cloudy skies, VFR ceilings and visibility are
present across the state at this time. Rain currently over parts
of the southwest and south central will expand and lift
northward through the day. This will ultimately lead to MVFR
ceilings mainly across western ND later this morning and
afternoon before MVFR/IFR/LIFR ceilings develop across the rest
of the state during the overnight hours. Visibility reductions
are also possible during any periods of rain that occur.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for NDZ001>005-
009>013.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken