747
FXUS63 KBIS 141959
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tornado threat through much of North Dakota continues through
  this evening.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through much of the
  week.

- Highs mostly in the 70s through Tuesday, then cooling into
  the 60s by the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Surface low now lifting northward, centered between Pierre and
Mobridge, SD, with warm front wrapping into the north side of
the low. Broad area of showers and storms have developed over
south central into southwest North Dakota. In this vicinity,
more low-level SRH rich air in the vicinity of the warm front
will bring a tornadic threat. This has been confirmed by
multiple tornadoes that have already occurred over far south
central North Dakota. There also is a limited large hail/wind
threat. Another great concern given the moisture rich
environment is heavy rain, thus the potential for flooding. The
threat for the severe weather continues into this evening before
dissipating.


System will meander north through the night. Models still show
a bit of timing uncertainty with the departure of the low into
Canada on Monday, now generally sometime in the afternoon/early
evening. This keeps high chances for showers but comparatively
lower chances for thunderstorms in the forecast on Monday,
decreasing from south to north in the afternoon through the
evening. Not long after the departure of the low late Monday,
another wave deepening over the Northern Rockies will begin
sending DCVA into the region on Tuesday, which keeps a 20 to 40
percent chance of rain in the forecast. Guidance then shows
another shortwave digging down from Canada on Wednesday. This
wave is likely to bring a cooler air mass into the region, which
may hold through the end of the week as the wave interacts with
the other aforementioned wave and meanders around the Upper
Midwest. The NBM maintains a 30 percent chance of rain on
Wednesday, followed by only a 20 percent chance Thursday through
Saturday.

For Monday and Tuesday, high temperatures are mostly expected
to be in the 70s, though parts of southwest and south central
North Dakota could stay in the mid to upper 60s should it rain
most of the day. Ensembles then show a distinct cool down for
the second half of the week, with highs mostly in the 60s
Thursday through Saturday. Forecast lows tonight remain closer
to summertime values of mid 50s to lower 60s, then gradually
cool to around 45 to 50 for the second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Periods of showers and thunderstorms, along with lingering low
level clouds, will bring widespread MVFR to IFR conditions
today. Winds will also be light and variable today. A few storms
today may be strong to severe. Tonight, showers with a few
thunderstorms may linger across much of the area along with some
lower clouds. Widespread MVFR conditions are expected, with some
IFR conditions possible. These same conditions may then continue
into Monday morning. Southerly winds will be found across the
eastern half of the state tonight into Monday, with westerly
winds in the west.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJS/Anglin/Hollan
AVIATION...Anglin