791
FXUS63 KBIS 131746
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1146 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend through the remainder of the workweek, with
  temperatures peaking on Friday. Forecast highs Friday range
  from the upper 50s northeast to near 70 southwest.

- Widespread precipitation chances are low through the weekend,
  however, light rain will likely accompany a cold frontal
  passage Friday night. 20 to 40 percent precipitation chances
  then return to start the next workweek.

- Breezy conditions may return on Saturday, though the latest
  trends are more towards the eastern half of the state.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1146 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Frontal boundary continues to slowly push to the northeast
across the forecast area, with numerous locations in southwest
North Dakota already at the 60 degrees F threshold, so it is
warming up nicely. Thin cirrus continues to drift across the
area, but overall quite a nice day for mid November. Going
forecast looks good for the afternoon.

UPDATE
Issued at 839 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Surface warm front is oriented northwest-southeast and analyzed
across southwest North Dakota, with high clouds streaming in
from Montana and the Canadian Prairies. The increasing warm air
advection will help boost temperatures today, especially across
the southwest where forecast highs are in the mid 60s. Blended
in latest guidance but no big changes for the forecast today.

UPDATE
Issued at 524 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

The forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Quiet weather and a continued warming trend remain in the
forecast through Friday as a thermal ridge slides eastward
through the Northern Plains. Along with light southerly winds at
the surface, temperatures should warm into the mid 50s to mid
60s across the forecast area today, though northeastern ND and
the Turtle mountains may remain in mid 40s. Winds should
transition more to a westerly direction on Friday. These
downsloping winds will help generate the warmest overall
temperatures of the week. As such, highs Friday should reach the
60s across most of the state with parts of the southwest
potentially approaching 70. The northeast and Turtle Mountains,
as is often the case, will remain a bit cooler and in the mid to
upper 50s.

Timing remains a little uncertain, but either late Friday
afternoon, or more likely Friday evening, a cold frontal
boundary will enter into the northwest and quickly pass
southeast through the state. A little light rain will likely
accompany this fropa. However, ensemble probabilities suggest a
very low chance of a wetting rain (tenth of an inch or more) for
all but parts of the southwest, where there is around a 25
percent chance. Behind the fropa, trends have favored trailing
surface high pressure centering over at least the western half
of the state during the daytime hours Saturday. As such, the
previously advertised potential return of breezy winds on
Saturday is looking more and more likely to apply mainly to the
eastern half of the state, and that`s not even set in stone.

Dry and cooler conditions are expected for the weekend with
highs ranging from the mid 30s in the far northeast to near 50
in the far southwest. A cooler and more active pattern is then
in the forecast to start the next workweek as west CONUS
troughing prevails and multiple waves could lift through the
Northern Plains. The NBM is now producing 20 to 40 percent
precipitation chances Monday through Tuesday, with lower
chances Tuesday night. The current trends favor this starting as
rain on Monday before transitioning mostly to snow Monday
night. However, uncertainty remains fairly high in regard to
whether or not at least parts of the state will receive
impactful precipitation, or whether or not the state will wind
up mostly dry in the end. That said, confidence is much higher
in the return of more seasonable temperatures for most of the
next workweek. Though whether or not these temperatures remain
near average or wind up below average is still up in the air.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the TAF period.
Some high clouds will move through the area, with generally
light and somewhat variable winds this afternoon becoming more
southwesterly through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Jones
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Jones