651
FXUS63 KBIS 160400
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1000 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and mostly dry this weekend, with a low chance of light
  rain and snow in western and south central North Dakota this
  evening.

- Temperatures remain closer to average for the upcoming work
  week, with highs mostly in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

- Low to medium chances for light mixed precipitation Monday
  through Thursday. Little to no impacts expected at this time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Band of light reflectivities continue to dissipate as the track
southeast across south central ND. Have not seen any ground
truth since some light rain/snow at Hettinger/Dickinson
respectively this afternoon. However can`t rule out a stray
sprinkle or flurry in the couple of hours. Will maintain some
slight chance pops.

Cloud shield has dissipated more than expected so lowered sky
cover southwest and north central. This may result in more fog
than earlier anticipated also. Latest KDIK bufkit sounding has
switched to more of a fog sounding than a stratus sounding.
There does appear to be enough wind to limit fog development
until after midnight though. Overall, only minor changes to the
going forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 555 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Band of warm advection and weak FG forcing from west central
into south central ND attim. Could be a lingering sprinkle or
flurry southwest but latest Bowman radar shows precip tapering
over the southwest. No impacts anticipated with only slight
chance pops this evening and into the early overnight hours.
Other than some slight massaging of pops and tweaks to sky
cover, no changes were needed to the going forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Flow over the northern Plains is turning increasingly
northwesterly this afternoon. A low amplitude shortwave
disturbance sliding down this pattern will induce isolated to
scattered showers across portions of the forecast area this
afternoon and evening, bolstered by some weak FG forcing and
modest mid level lapse rates sliding from west to east through
early tonight. While most CAMs restrict this FG forcing to
mainly the southwest and south central, and capture its rapid
dissipation by the early to mid evening, the latest HRRR runs
continue to favor its persistence and expansion northward as it
slides across central North Dakota, which would allow for the
uptick in PoPs in north central North Dakota through the late
evening. While much of this precipitation is anticipated to fall
as rain, the gradual cooling of the column through this
afternoon and evening may allow for some light snow to mix in
across the northern and eastern edge of the precipitation axis.
That being, QPF is anticipated to be fairly limited, with only
a few hundreths up to maybe a tenth of an inch of precipitation
anticipated at any given location. Any snow that does fall
should be short-lived due to warm surface conditions, with
little to no accumulations expected. Otherwise, for today
seasonable highs in from the mid 30s to lower 40s north mid 40s
to lower 50s south are anticipated. Lows tonight are forecast
from the lower to mid 20s north to the lower 30s south.

Dry and mostly calm conditions are then expected on Sunday as
high pressure lingers over the eastern northern Plains. Slightly
warmer highs, from the lower 40s north central to mid 50s
southwest, are anticipated as southeasterly flow is found at the
surface. Gusty winds, with speeds up to 15 MPH and gusts up to
25 MPH, are possible across the southwest as the pressure
gradient tightens between the aforementioned high center, and an
approaching surface low associated with a upper level Pacific
trough/closed low moving across the Rockies late Sunday through
Monday. With cloud cover increasing overnight, low temperatures
Monday morning are also slightly warmer, from the lower 20s
north central to the mid 30s southwest.

The aforementioned upper level Pacific trough/closed low will
characterize a prolonged period of low to medium PoPs across the
forecast area through the first half of the coming workweek. An
initial, slow-moving impulse ejecting out ahead of the main
wave is anticipated promote an initial round of precipitation
early Monday through early Tuesday. Initially anticipated to
fall as all rain, cooling surface temperatures paired with
ongoing WAA in the lower levels could signal a potential period
of light freezing drizzle/rain across portions of northern and
central North Dakota Monday night through early Tuesday morning,
with a general transition to snow found further to the north
and east. While QPF during this period is anticipated to be
light, with only around a hundreth or less of liquid
precipitation advertised during this period, we will continue to
monitor this potential moving forward. Otherwise, breezy
southwest winds are also anticipated across much of northwestern
and portions of central North Dakota Monday afternoon as CAA
ramps up across the region. Once this initial round of
precipitation diminishes through the day Tuesday, the main wave
is anticipated to move across the northern Plains early
Wednesday through Thursday, reinforcing the low to medium
chances for precipitation through this period. With a split flow
regime favored by a plurality of ensemble members during this
period, precipitation is expected to remain fairly light overall
through this whole period, with the probability to exceed even
0.10" overall Monday through Thursday less than 30 percent. With
the mix of precipitation types anticipated, snow accumulations
would be short-lived if they occur at all. Otherwise, during
this period, high temperatures through the coming workweek are
anticipated to be near normal for this time of year, broadly in
the mid 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 955 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions at all TAF sites except KDIK to begin the 06Z
TAF period. Western ND, including KXWA and especially KDIK will
see the highest probability for Aviation impacts due to low
stratus and/or fog. Clouds over southwest ND have dissipated
quicker than anticipated, which may yield more fog later tonight
than stratus, compared to the thinking from the 00Z TAF
issuance. Current NBM probabilities for MVFR visibilities at
KDIK and KXWA are near 50 percent. IFR probabilities are 40
percent at KDIK but drop to around 12 percent at KXWA. Farther
east, in central ND, MVFR probabilities have dropped to around
20 percent at KMOT and closer to 10 percent at KBIS and KJMS.

A band of VFR clouds and maybe an isolated rain/snow shower
will dissipate over south central ND late this evening into the
early overnight hours. Due to very light activity, will not add
a mention of precip at KBIS or KJMS this evening. Clouds are
also dissipating quicker than anticipated from north central ND
into the James River Valley. Think there should be enough of a
breeze just above to surface to limit fog over central ND
though. Look for light surface winds tonight with a southerly
surface flow on Sunday around 10 knots or less.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...Adam
AVIATION...TWH