948
FXUS63 KBIS 041743
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1143 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy with warming temperatures today. Patchy drifting snow
  possible.

- Active weather pattern continues with near daily low to medium
  chances for snow over many portions of the area.

- Temperatures remain near average for Friday, then
  significantly cool for Saturday. Temperatures gradually warm
  to start the work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

The warm front will continue moving east through the state. The
latest NBM data has been loaded into the forecast. Still looking
at a trace to two inches of snow combined through the weekend.

UPDATE
Issued at 940 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

The warm front is moving into central North Dakota now, with it
low stratus has formed. In a few areas in the north and central
patchy fog has developed. Other than that no changes were made
to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 632 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Warmer air continues to work its way into the area, with
temperatures continuing to gradually climb through western and
central North Dakota. No changes needed to the forecast at this
time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 455 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Current surface analysis places high over the Midwest nudging
into the central plains, while low remains over Saskatchewan,
with trough dipping through eastern Montana/northeast Wyoming.
Warm front with this system continues to lift into our area with
temperatures now holding steady or climbing a little bit. Upper
level analysis places northwest flow over our area with a
variety of weak short waves noted upstream.

For today, warm front will continue its lift through the area
with high temperatures returning to the mid 20s to mid 30s. With
that said, southwesterly to westerly winds will become breezy
as surface low passes through Manitoba on its way into Ontario,
which could lead to some drifting snow.

Tonight into Friday, the first of the aforementioned short
waves/clippers drops southeast through the flow and over our
area bringing low to moderate chances (~20 to 50 percent) for
light snow, though any accumulations should be quite limited.
Winds may be a little breezy behind the cold front, but the
coldest air with this system does not come until later Friday
into Friday night.

Cold air settles in for Saturday into Saturday night as surface
high settles into the northern plains. High temperatures are
expected to be in the single digits above zero along and east of
the Missouri River, and not much warmer elsewhere. In addition,
Saturday may see some additional light snow, with low to medium
chances (~20 to 50 percent) mainly over southern locations.
Saturday night will see almost all locations below zero for
lows, with most locations east of the Missouri dropping into the
teens below zero.

Sunday will see a very modest rebound in temperatures, with
warmer air pushing in more in earnest to start the work week.
Temperature forecast then gets a bit sketchy as we approach
mid-week, as latest NBM analysis shows quite a spread in
temperature forecasts from Tuesday night onward, generally a 15
to 20 degree difference between the 25th and 75th percentile.
Unsettled pattern continues the daily chances for snow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

VFR this afternoon with westerly winds gusting around 25kts.
This evening, snow will move into the northwest and spread
through the central and east. Expect IFR to LIFR CIGs with the
snow. The snow will end around sunrise Friday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...Smith