349
FXUS63 KBIS 100549
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1149 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend this workweek with no precipitation in the
  forecast until Friday night.

- Breezy across most of the state Monday and Tuesday, and in
  the east on Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1146 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Little updates needed to make tonight. The latest NBM has been
ingested into the forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 1024 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

High clouds continue to stream through western parts of the
area while cold air settles through. Have lowered low
temperatures a bit over parts of northwest and north central
North Dakota as quite a few areas have dropped into the single
digits.

UPDATE
Issued at 658 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Quiet weather continues with some high clouds passing through.
No changes needed to forecast at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Surface high pressure will continue passing from northwest to
southeast through the state this afternoon and evening. This
may allow transitory patchy fog to develop initially in the
northwest this evening, then the north central overnight.
However, as high pressure continues moving southeast, the
pressure gradient will tighten and breezy southerly to
southwesterly winds will develop by mid Monday morning. This
will rapidly dissipate any fog that has developed overnight.
Otherwise, lows tonight are expected to drop down into the teens
across most of the state.

Incoming ridge, along with breezy southwesterly winds, will
result in a large temperature contrast Monday. Highs are
expected to range from the mid 30s in eastern ND to the mid 50s
in southwestern ND. With a southwesterly wind component,
downsloping will likely lead to somewhat stronger winds along
the Missouri Coteau compared to elsewhere.

Beyond Monday, northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through
the middle of the workweek. This favors a common pattern in
North Dakota where northeastern parts of the state will remain
cooler than the southwest. Generally speaking, this will lead to
highs ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s, although a bit cooler
conditions in the northeast and a bit warmer conditions in the
southwest are possible at times. This will also favor mostly
dry conditions, although embedded shortwave energy in northwest
flow aloft can occasionally produce light precipitation that is
difficult to forecast well in advance.

Though some question on timing remains, a transitory ridge is
favored to pass through the Northern Plains at the end of the
workweek. This may lead to the overall warmest day of the week
across the state on Friday. After which, trailing trough is
favored to break down the ridge and bring the return of more
seasonable temperatures and precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1146 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Mostly VFR CIGs through the period, except IFR CIGs are
entering the James River Valley right now. This will impact KJMS
through the night. Patchy fog is possible in the north and
could create IFR CIGs.


Winds later today will gust to 25kts from the south.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...JJS