Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
027 FXUS64 KBMX 021103 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 603 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 547 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2025 - No hazardous weather impacts are anticipated the next seven days. However, drought conditions are most likely going to increase across the area. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1204 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2025 Water vapor imagery this evening reveals a trough draped along the eastern seaboard and an upper ridge quickly building in behind it. This upper level ridging/increased subsidence will help keep us dry in the short term. While chances are very low, we *could* see a rogue shower or two across our far southern areas as a H7 vort max ridges around the southern periphery of a mid level high pressure. Forecast soundings hint at a thin layer of moisture around H7 but also show a large pocket of dry air just below. With that said, the dry air will likely win out and we will remain rain-free. Otherwise, temps on Thursday will warm into the low to mid 80s for most. Our eastern border may not break out of the upper 70s as a weak wedge flow setup develops. An influx of drier air Thursday evening into Friday morning will allow temps to fall into the mid 50s for the northern half of the CWA. 95/Castillo && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1204 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2025 Dry conditions remain in place as we wrap up the work week. By Sunday, a trough moving across the Plains will begin to nudge the ridge east, allowing a coastal low the opportunity to lift towards the Northern Gulf coast. The exact placement of the low will determine who is lucky enough to receive some much needed rainfall. For now, we will continue with low to moderate chances across our southern areas Sunday into early next week as a plume of healthy moisture looks to accompany the coastal low. This low looks to quickly shift west/wash out as an Atlantic high strengthens. This will keep an east-southeasterly flow in place across the region. Will continue with low chance of diurnally driven rain through mid week as sufficient moisture lingers around. Despite increased rain chances late this weekend and into next week, most of us will remain dry. Dry conditions and warm temps with highs in the mid 80s will likely result in worsening of our ongoing moderate to severe drought. The recent monthly drought outlook doesn`t look good for us with additional drought development likely. 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2025 VFR conditions prevail through this TAF cycle. Winds will pick up through the morning as the pressure gradient tightens across the area. Gusts from 15-20 knots are likely through mid afternoon. Winds will become light again during the evening and overnight periods. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... The area should remain mostly dry. MinRH values should fall into the low to mid 30s for many areas this afternoon. No significant moisture return is expected until late weekend and into early next week with low rain chances by Sunday afternoon. Because of this, drought conditions will remain ongoing, with additional expansion possible given the lack of rain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 82 54 81 54 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 81 56 80 58 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 84 59 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 88 59 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 85 58 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 81 59 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 84 61 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 82 60 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...95 LONG TERM....95 AVIATION...16