Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
263 FXUS64 KBMX 190530 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1230 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1229 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025 Low clouds are expected again this morning, with perhaps patchy fog in a few wind-sheltered locations along rivers or that received rainfall yesterday. Rain chances will return by the mid-morning hours, mainly across the northern half of the area. By afternoon, rain and thunderstorm coverage should continue to be greatest over the northern half, with less activity across southern areas. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with more rain expected across the north, with low to mid 90s across the south. Rain chances will be a tad lower on Sunday afternoon, but will continue to be highest across the northern half. Sunday highs are currently forecast to be a degree or two higher than today, with heat index values generally topping out in the 100-105F range. 12 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1229 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025 Continued similar thinking for next week as the last few forecast cycles. A ridge will attempt to build in across the South as the remnants of Invest 93L drift into Texas and/or Oklahoma. A trough will pass through the Northeast states Monday and Tuesday, with the ridge attempting to build eastward behind it. Rain and storm chances remain in place each afternoon, mainly across the southern and eastern counties, as the ridge will battle to take hold in the region. The latest GFS and ECMWF deterministic center the ridge roughly over Arkansas through much of the week, while Central Alabama slowly heats back up day by day. By Tuesday and Wednesday, we`ll see highs firmly back into the mid 90s in many areas, and we will likely need to consider resuming the issuance of Heat Advisories by Tuesday if not sooner. 12 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025 Low clouds are developing again this morning, with MVFR or IFR cigs likely at all terminals through 12 or 13z. Showers and storms are possible again this afternoon, so have maintained PROB30 for SHRA as thunder coverage is uncertain. Rain chances should diminish after 01z this evening. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 12 && .FIRE WEATHER... Min RH values will fall to around 50-60% each afternoon through mid week. Some spots will dip into the 40s from Sunday onward. Winds will stay generally under 10 mph for most of the next week, varying direction with each day. Rain and storm chances remain in the forecast each afternoon, however, high pressure building in by early to mid week may diminish these rain chances as time draws closer. Thus, potential exists for sparse rainfall coverage mid to late week, despite the current forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 92 71 92 71 / 60 20 40 10 Anniston 90 72 90 73 / 50 20 40 10 Birmingham 91 73 92 74 / 50 20 40 10 Tuscaloosa 91 74 93 74 / 50 20 30 10 Calera 90 74 91 74 / 40 20 30 10 Auburn 91 74 91 75 / 30 20 20 10 Montgomery 93 74 94 75 / 30 10 20 10 Troy 93 72 94 73 / 30 10 20 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...12