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FXUS64 KBMX 230845
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
245 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 245 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025

 - Dense fog will affect southeast portions of central Alabama
   through early this morning.

 - Showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday and Tuesday night
   with a level 1 out of 5 risk for a couple severe thunderstorms
   during the daytime.

 - Clear and cool conditions are forecast for Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Monday through next Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025

Early this week:

A shortwave ridge approaches today and quickly scoots by on
Monday, resulting in tame weather conditions. Northerly flow
behind Saturday`s frontal passage will promote relatively mild
temperatures today compared to yesterday`s record highs.
Southerly flow kicks back in on Monday, once again increasing our
margin above seasonal normals.

Tuesday`s active weather:

A pronounced trough over the Desert Southwest today is forecast to
become more broad by the time it swings by our region. A key item
is that through the course of this evolution, its axis of forcing
quickly ejects to the northeast. This should leave us with a bit
of a disjointed setup in terms of severe weather; however, a
sheared wind profile is forecast to envelop the region with the
prospect for at least a weakly unstable air mass, so its worth
some attention.

Forecast models suggest the initial wave of showers and
thunderstorms should arrive across northwest Alabama around
midnight. Though the trough axis would be at its most favorable
proximity at this time, in the absence of appreciable warm
advection to overcome boundary layer cooling, surface-based
instability is shown to be nil. Thunderstorms could still occur,
though, due to weak instability aloft, but the severe risk would
be very low at best in this environment.

Showers and thunderstorms will advance across the rest of central
Alabama through the course of Tuesday. Cloudiness plus the
anticipated coverage and reoccurring nature of activity should
keep any surface-based instability fairly modest; combined with
veering surface and low-level flow, and the main jet corridor
pulling away, the severe risk looks to remain low.

Showers and thunderstorms should draw to a close early Wednesday
morning with variable cloudiness and a northwest breeze through
the day. A chillier air mass will be inbound from the northwest,
arriving Wednesday night.

Late week:

High pressure will be in control on Thursday and Friday, featuring
clear weather and cold mornings/and cool to mild afternoons.

The weekend:

High pressure will move to the east on Saturday. A broad
troughing pattern across the western CONUS will send a series of
shortwaves eastward. If the faster model solutions are correct, we
could see rain return for the second-half of the weekend.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025

Flight categories range from VFR to LIFR in dense fog and low
clouds as of 05:45z here in central Alabama. MGM and AUO will be
affected at varying extent over the coming hours by IFR/LIFR
ceilings and fog due to moist low levels ahead of an approaching
front, returning to VFR around 15z Sunday. Meanwhile, an MVFR
cloud deck is drifting southward from the Tennessee Valley, poised
to affect TCL, BHM, and EET to some extent between 10-15z Sunday.
Beyond 15z Sunday, VFR conditions are forecast across the board
with light winds.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRHs are forecast to remain well above critical thresholds over
the next several days. Relatively low MinRHs look to return late
next week, from Thanksgiving to Saturday. Light winds are forecast
today and Monday, becoming closer to 10 mph with the potential for
gusts near 20 mph from the south on Tuesday and northwest on
Wednesday, the light once again later in the week.

Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Tuesday
and Tuesday night, perhaps some lingering activity into early
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     49  70  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    51  71  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  52  69  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  52  72  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      51  73  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      54  74  51  75 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  55  75  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        54  74  50  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION...89