Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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515 FXUS64 KBMX 100608 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 108 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 817 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2024 Thunderstorms started developing along the outflows left from the thunderstorms early this morning and last night. With the flow nearly unidirectional, you would think that the storms would move eastward. In general they are, but there is a vast pool of instability south and west of these boundaries. SBCAPE was still 3000-5000j/kg, with shear values at 50kts. Believe a few things will happen overnight. The storms will progress eastward as the stable surface layer is eroded. The storms will also tend to drift southward toward the instability as it feeds on the fuel. These storms will be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail and possibly a tornado. At this time, it appears the watch area looks good with only the far north and northeast counties not in it. Will monitor eastern locations if some instability can work back in. There still is an impulse moving out of Texas that will ride overhead overnight. This feature will kick off additional showers and storms, but the atmosphere should be turned over in most locations by then. We will monitor the southwest counties for any remaining instability after midnight. Moisture values remain quite high over Central Alabama. Since these thunderstorms are moving rather slowly and have high fuel to work with, torrential rain will be expected under the storms. Some locations will pick up a quick 2 to 4 inches. Some flooding may occur. The storms will eventually move south and east of the area Friday afternoon. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Friday) Issued at 133 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2024 Key Messages: - Some showers and thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon, any storms that do develop may become severe with a wind and hail risk. - Clusters of thunderstorms currently developing across East Texas will move east this afternoon and tonight, pushing into the area with greatest potential across our south-central counties. Damaging straight-line winds will be the primary concern, though risks for hail and a tornado or two will be possible with this activity this evening through early Friday morning. Tonight. Shortwave ridging currently over East-Central Mississippi will move east of the area by this evening as a disturbance aloft moves east toward the area. This feature is supporting the development of thunderstorm clusters across portions of Eastern Texas that will be in an environment supportive of upscale growth through time that may result in another MCS that will move east generally along the Interstate 20 corridor toward the area. Expect any storms that developed in the afternoon to continue moving east across the area ahead of the potential MCS, followed by the potential MCS late tonight through the early morning hours on Friday. Damaging straight-line winds will be the primary risk, though there will be a chance for some hail and a tornado or two if boundary interactions/cell mergers occur. Some patchy fog may develop before sunrise, especially in areas that received heavy rainfall today and tonight, though development will still be conditional based upon lighter winds and decreasing clouds. Winds outside of storms will be from the west at 4-8 mph. Low temperatures will be cooler, ranging from around 60 far northwest to the mid 60s south and central. Friday. A longwave trough will swing southeast over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley Regions during the day on Friday while broad low- amplitude ridging builds over the Southern Plains. Expect chances for lingering showers and storms to become increasingly confined to the southeastern counties through the morning with dry conditions returning areawide by mid afternoon. Look for decreasing clouds through the day with winds becoming northwest at 6-12 mph. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s far northwest to the mid 80s southeast. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 243 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2024 A nice respite from the heat and humidity over the weekend. My see a few temperatures down into the upper 40s across the northeast counties Saturday morning, with low to mid 50s elsewhere. An active weather pattern setting up next week with several southern stream impulses moving along the Gulf Coast region. The first impulse will bring showers into Alabama on Monday. Instability will increase late Monday night and into Tuesday as the low level flow becomes southerly and surface dewpoints rise into the 60s. There could be enough instability and shear for locally strong storms, especially on Tuesday. 58/rose && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 105 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2024 Showers and storms will move through the area through sunrise. Tried to time out things the best possible. Most of the convection will be east of the area by 14 to 15z, with skies clearing through 18z. Winds will be strong this afternoon. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected overnight, mainly along and south of I-20. Rainfall heavy at times. The rain should be exiting east Alabama by sunrise Friday. A cold front will pass through Alabama on Friday, ushering in much drier and cooler air. Min RH values on Friday 40-50 percent. No wetting rain expected over the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 80 50 78 52 / 20 0 0 0 Anniston 80 51 78 54 / 30 0 0 0 Birmingham 81 54 79 57 / 20 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 83 55 80 57 / 20 0 0 0 Calera 82 55 78 57 / 30 0 0 0 Auburn 81 56 78 58 / 50 0 0 0 Montgomery 84 56 80 57 / 50 0 0 0 Troy 83 56 79 57 / 70 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...75 LONG TERM....58 AVIATION...16