655
FXUS64 KBMX 011050
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
550 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 545 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025

-  Below average temperatures are expected to continue through
   Monday but will be replaced with a warm and dry pattern setting
   up by Tuesday through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Friday)
Issued at 151 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025

A very tranquil but chilly Halloween night was observed over much
of the Deep South. Temperatures continue to fall into the upper
30s to lower 40s at this hour with ideal radiational cooling
conditions. Patchy fog remains in the forecast through daybreak
along the major river basins and larger lakes. The GOES-19 Night
Fog product is looking just like last night at this time, with the
most noticable fog development along the Black Warrior and Coosa
River basins. The Frost Advisory will remain in effect through 9am
this morning for the northern third of the CWA, with locations
such as Hamilton, Haleyville, Fayette, Oneonta, and Gadsden having
the best chance for frost development and lows dropping between 34
and 35 degrees. Other low-lying and valley microclimates will
also see the best chance for frost within the advisory counties,
but not everyone will see frost.

Another tranquil day is on tap for Saturday, although daytime
temperatures will remain below normal for this time of the year in
the mid and upper 60s. High cirrus clouds will thicken and spread
across the region from the west through the day ahead of an
approaching 500mb trough axis and closed low diving southeast from
the Great Plains. Winds will be light or variable this afternoon
with surface high pressure still remaining in place. Low
temperatures tonight should range in the low to mid 40s due to the
increase in cloud cover.

The mid to upper level closed low will track southeast across the
Tennessee River Valley during the day on Sunday, with a chance for
showers mainly relegated to the northeastern half of Central
Alabama. Only light rainfall amounts are expected with this quick
hitting system through Sunday afternoon before exiting to the east
on Monday. Highs will be coolest in the mid to upper 50s where
the most widespread clouds and showers are present, roughly along
and north of the I-22 and I-20 corridors. A surface cold front
will move southeast across the state in the wake of the closed low
Sunday night, with another quick shot of cooler and drier air
advecting southward.

Another chance for frost development will then evolve by Monday
morning as clouds clear and winds diminish with surface high
pressure moving in from the west. Much of the southern half of the
CONUS will then enter into a warmer and drier 500mb pattern
through the end of next week. Following one last day in the 60s on
Monday with a few patches of frost Tuesday morning, a moderating
trend will commence by Tuesday afternoon as a broad 500mb ridge
develops over the northern Gulf and heights increase over the Deep
South. High temperatures should increase from the low to mid 70s
on Tuesday to as high as the upper 70s across southern Alabama by
Thursday. The ridge to our south is expected to weaken by the end
of the week, but mainly zonal flow currently advertised by long-
range guidance would keep the warm and dry pattern in place
through the end of next week with continued long-term drought
conditions.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period with
scattered high clouds moving into the area variable winds. Some
river fog is currently impacting TCL and will continue through
13z. The next set of TAFS may need to add in rain chances at the
tail end of the 18z TAF cycle.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRH values will drop into the low and middle 30 percent range
roughly along and southeast of the I-59 corridor this afternoon,
but winds will remain very light or variable. Slightly higher
moisture values are forecast over the northern half of Alabama on
Sunday with a chance for some light showers but no wetting
rainfall is anticipated. A prolonged period of rain free
conditions along with mild to warm daytime temperatures will lead
to considerable surface drying and RH values dropping into the 30s
areawide by Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     65  43  59  36 /   0  10  50  10
Anniston    66  44  61  39 /   0  10  40  20
Birmingham  65  46  59  39 /   0  10  40  10
Tuscaloosa  67  45  61  39 /   0  10  20  10
Calera      68  45  62  39 /   0  10  30  10
Auburn      66  45  66  42 /   0   0  20  20
Montgomery  68  44  68  39 /   0  10  20  20
Troy        68  42  68  39 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following
counties: Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Clay-Cleburne-Etowah-Fayette-
Jefferson-Lamar-Marion-Randolph-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...56/GDG
AVIATION...16