630
FXUS64 KBMX 222319
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
519 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 515 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025

 - Showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday and Tuesday night.
   A low risk for severe thunderstorms may arise with this
   system.

 - Clear and much cooler conditions are forecast for Thanksgiving
   Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 1201 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025

Weak front continues to push southward through the area with
lingering clouds and a few isolated showers south of I-85 east of
Montgomery. Temperatures are climbing with the clearing and
records will be threatened at mainly northern locations.

Overall pattern for the next 7 to 10 days looks to be somewhat
progressive, with quite the roller coaster ride of temperatures
and perhaps a few good chances for much needed rainfall.

Through Monday...short wave ridging will be the first transitory
feature, with fair and mild conditions.

By Tuesday, a weakening closed low ejecting from the Baja
peninsula into the midwest will bring a surge of moisture with
widespread rain and thunderstorms to the area. Chances for strong
or severe storms seems to be limited, as the forcing associated
with the weakening and lifting system moves quickly into the Ohio
valley/Great Lakes. The potential for storms may also be tamped
down a bit by what may be fairly widespread precip, which would
seem to limit the instability potential. Of course...we will
monitor trends closely and adapt as needed, but the risk does not
appear to be substantial at this time. Perhaps the best news is
the opportunity for much needed rain across a large portion of the
area, with best amounts/chances highest in the northwest,
tapering to the southeast.

Wednesday...the lack of upper level forcing will leave us with a
droopy slow moving front, so it will take the whole day for rain
chances to end from northwest to southeast. A short wave trough
moving through the great lakes will finally provide enough support
to help move things along.

Fortunately by Thanksgiving Day, continental high pressure
building southeastward out of the rockies should be strong enough
to bring us clear skies and cool temperatures for a classic crisp
southern Thanksgiving!

To close out the week high pressure will continue to build
eastward into the Mississippi Valley and gradually shift to
the Appalachians, for continued fair skies and seasonably cool
conditions...hopefully keeping things dry at least through
Saturday and perhaps into Sunday.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025

Conditions should remain predominantly (if not entirely) VFR
across central Alabama TAF sites through the next 24 hours. The
only questionable time will be from around 09Z to 13Z
tonight/tomorrow morning, where some sub-3000 ft ceilings could
develop. Otherwise, low levels will continue to dry out which
should lead to just FEW-SCT cumulus level clouds through the
daylight hours on Sunday.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRHs are forecast to remain well above, and winds below,
critical thresholds over the next several days. Relatively low
MinRHs look to return late next week.

Dry mild weather is expected through Monday. Widespread showers
and a few thunderstorms are expected Tuesday into Tuesday night,
poised to offer between one to two inches of rain, on average,
across central Alabama. Rain chances will gradually diminish from
northwest to southeast on Wednesday, with fair weather returning
by Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     48  70  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    51  71  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  52  70  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  51  72  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      51  72  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      54  73  49  74 /  10   0   0   0
Montgomery  55  75  46  77 /  10   0   0   0
Troy        55  75  47  78 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...02
AVIATION.../61/