Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
511 FXUS65 KBOI 170330 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 830 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025 .DISCUSSION...Scattered light rain showers were moving northward through western Idaho this evening but the main pcpn was in eastern Oregon. That pcpn is forecast to shift into western Idaho later tonight but slowly diminish through Monday morning. Drier (but not completely dry) and several degrees cooler wx is forecast Monday night and Tuesday, followed by generally dry but still mild weather the rest of the coming week. NBM sees weak pcpn Thursday, but other models look drier. Actually, all NBM PoPs look a little high the next several days vs the corresponding QPF forecasts. Any pcpn that does occur after Monday will be light at most. Current forecast seems a little too wet Monday but not enough to update. && .AVIATION...Showers increasing across southwest ID tonight into Monday morning, decreasing Monday afternoon. Widespread mountain obscuration in precipitation. Mainly VFR across ID this evening with local MVFR/IFR conditions from fog and low ceilings in eastern OR, spreading over ID tonight and through Monday morning/early afternoon. Snow levels dropping to 7-8kft MSL tonight into Monday. Surface winds: SW-SE 5-10 kt, with gusts around 20 kt near the NV border. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW-W 10-25 kt. KBOI...Mostly VFR tonight with intermittent showers. Brief reductions to MVFR visibility possible in heavier showers. Low MVFR ceilings in rain Monday morning, improving by early afternoon. Surface winds: SE 5-10 kt tonight and Monday morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...Heavier rain showers are picking up across the area this afternoon, with some lower visibilities accompanying the heaviest precipitation near Burns, OR. Temperatures are about 10-15 degrees above normal throughout the region, and will steadily drop to the low to mid 50s (still about 5-10 degrees above normal) through Tuesday. The cut-off low that is pushing widespread rain into the area will continue to move northeast through Monday evening, keeping us in a steady stream of moisture as another stronger cut-off low moves inland to Northern California. This moist southwest flow will keep the chance of precipitation elevated with warm temperatures keeping snow levels high (above 7000- 8000 feet) through Monday evening. We can expect anywhere from 0.10-0.25 inches of precipitation across lower elevations, with high terrain seeing up to 0.75 inches by Monday evening. We will be in between two systems to our north and south, which will keep Tuesday mostly dry with the exception of a few high terrain showers. LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...An unsettled pattern will continue in the extended, but confidence in the details remains low. A weak trough will exit our area on Wednesday as a ridge briefly builds overhead. This will bring drier conditions with temperatures only a couple of degrees above normal. Forecast confidence decreases starting Thursday as another trough moves into the West. Most ensembles split the trough as it moves inland and develop another cutoff low that dives to our south, resulting in warmer and drier conditions, but some keep the trough more consolidated resulting in cooler and wetter conditions. The uncertainty results in a 20-40% chance of showers on Thursday with temperatures likely to be within a few degrees of normal. Snow levels of 5000-6500 feet will limit any snow accumulations to higher peaks. Uncertainty carries forward Friday through Sunday as a ridge rebuilds across the West behind the trough. However, moisture (potentially an atmospheric river) looks to move over top of the ridge into the Pacific Northwest. There are differences in the ensembles on the strength of the ridge and amount of moisture, but the net result is around a 20-50% chance of rain and high elevation snow each day, with the highest chances in the northern mountains. Snow levels look to remain fairly high at around 4500-6500 feet. Temperatures are expected to remain within a few degrees above normal, but averaging slightly above normal through the period. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...LC AVIATION.....JY SHORT TERM...SA LONG TERM....ST