331
FXUS65 KBOI 241010
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
310 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night...Isolated showers
this morning ahead of the cold frontal passage expected to move
through the forecast area, from west to east between 4 AM and
Noon today. The front, at 2 AM MST, is just west of Burns Baker
City and is expected to continue eastward, reaching Boise McCall
around 9 AM MST and the Western Magic Valley by Noon. Showers
will increase in coverage, especially across Baker Valley into
the Central Idaho Mountains, an hour or two before frontal
passage. Snow levels will steadily fall from 5500 feet early
this morning to between 2500 and 3500 feet by late this evening.
Overall, snow accumulations will be light, with less than an
inch expected below 6000 feet and up to 2 inches in the mountain
peaks. A few stronger showers could produce brief heavy
snowfall with the frontal passage later this morning. Little
rain is expected in the valley, with most areas seeing less than
0.02 inch.

Northwesterly winds of 10 to 20 mph follows the front, with the
strongest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph
expected in the Magic Valley this afternoon. The colder airmass
behind the front combined with breezy winds will finally bring
normal temperatures and completely mix out the valley inversion
today.

What has been a consistent pattern this November, an upper level
ridge of high pressure will once again build over the Pacific
Northwest starting Tuesday. This shifts the Pacific moisture
plume further north into Northern and Central Idaho on
Wednesday, thus limiting precipitation across the area. Baker
county through the West Central Mountains have the highest
chance for precipitation (50 to 60 percent chance) with snow
levels rising between 5000 to 6000 feet. The lower QPF and
higher snow levels will limit accumulating snowfall to 1 to 3
inches above 5000 feet, the majority of which will fall Tuesday
night into early Wednesday when snow levels are the lowest.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...A large ridge is
expected to hang over the region early Thursday, as it gets
slowly broken down by an incoming upper trough from SW Canada.
There still remains considerable guidance uncertainty over this
trough`s behavior and arrival. For now, chances of precipitation
(light rain in lower elevations and possible wintry mix in
higher elevations) are generally expected from Thursday to
Sunday. There is general agreement that the incoming trough
pattern will bring a significant cooling trend towards the end
of the extended period. Peak lower elevation temperatures are
expected to remain in the upper 40s Thursday and Friday, before
dropping into the lower to mid 40s Saturday and into the upper
30s Sunday. Snow levels are expected to take on a downward trend
from the 5000-6000 ft range Thursday to the 3000-4000 ft range
Friday through Saturday, and into the 1000-2000 ft range Sunday
through Monday. As such, Sunday will see the highest chances of
snowfall, especially over the mountains. Monday will see a large
ridge off the Pacific build into the region, bringing a drying
trend. Peak lower elevation temperatures will tentatively remain
on the cooler side (upper 30s and lower 40s) with snow levels
still mostly lingering in the 1000-2000 ft range.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR/MVFR cloud ceilings overnight into Monday morning
with IFR/LIFR stratus in the mountains. Widespread mountain
obscuration. Light precipitation across the central mountains (KBKE
and KMYL) overnight and few light showers Monday morning elsewhere.
Snow levels 5-6kft MSL, lowering to 3-4kft by Monday afternoon.
Surface winds: Variable less than 10 kt, becoming W-NW 10-20 kt
Monday afternoon, with gusts 25-35 kt across S-Central ID. Winds
aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 25-40 kt, becoming NW after Mon/18z.

KBOI...VFR with lowering ceilings overnight. A few light rain
showers Monday morning, mainly between 12-16z. Surface winds: Light
and variable, becoming NW late Monday morning with gusts 20-25
kt in the afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...Through November 23rd, 2025, the average temperature
has reached 49.3 degrees, making it one of the warmest
Novembers on record for Boise, Idaho. This ranks as the second
warmest November, only slightly behind the record of 50.0
degrees set in 1934. It`s only just warmer than the third-
place average of 49.0 degrees in November 1903 and the fourth-
place average of 48.9 degrees in November 2016. Records began in
1875.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....JY
AVIATION.....JY