602
FXUS65 KBOI 071643
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
943 AM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

.DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous rain and high elevation snow
showers will continue to move through southwest Idaho this
morning as a system moves across the area. Additional
precipitation amounts of less than 0.10" are expected, and
snowfall amounts will be very light and limited to elevations
above 6000 feet. Showers will decrease by early afternoon with
decreasing clouds and breezy conditions. Forecast handles this
well and no updates expected this morning.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR, with MVFR ceilings in mtns obscuring
terrain. Isolated showers moving E through SW ID this morning.
Snow levels expected to drop to 4-6kft MSL by 18Z. Mtn showers
and MVFR ceilings become more isolated after 20Z. Surface winds:
W-NW 5-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt in most areas until afternoon
around Sat/00Z. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W 15-30 kt.

KBOI...VFR with mid-level ceilings and isolated showers in the
vicinity through early afternoon. Surface winds: NW around 10
kt, with gusts up to 20 kt through late morning/early afternoon.

Weekend Outlook...Mostly VFR with local MVFR/IFR in sheltered
valleys due to fog Saturday morning. Surface winds: Variable
under 10 kt Saturday, then easterly 5-15 kt Sunday. Winds aloft
at 10kft MSL: 15 kt or less through Sunday.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...High pressure aloft will create stable
conditions over the area this weekend and into next week. The
resulting temperature inversion and light surface winds will
introduce a period of stagnant conditions starting on Sunday as
mixing heights are forecast to drop near or below 2kft AGL for
many lower elevation sites across SE Oregon and SW Idaho.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...Watching an upper
wave track along the OR/WA border on water vapor satellite with
an accompanying precipitation band on radar early this morning.
This system will continue eastward through the day generating
widespread showers in the e-central Oregon and w-central Idaho
mtns through midday. At lower elevations, the precipitation
band will break up as it sags south to a KBNO-KMUO line by
early afternoon. Any remaining isolated shower activity over
the mtns will collapse by sunset. Snow levels will limit
accumulation to sites above 6500 feet this morning, with up to 2
inches possible. Breezy northwest winds will kick up across
open terrain later this morning with gusts of 20 to 30 mph
continuing through early evening. It will be dry across the
region tonight through Sunday as a sharp upper ridge builds over
the Intermountain NW. Sheltered valleys could see fog Saturday
morning as winds go light and skies are mostly clear. Mountains
will be quicker to respond to warming aloft as a temperature
inversion sets up heading into Sunday.

LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Next week starts with the
brief flattening of the high amplitude ridge as a shortwave
trough skirts the US/Canada border. A minimal 15-20% chance of
precipitation extends to the Salmon River on Monday but
otherwise it remains dry. The ridge rebounds Tue/Wed, possibly
holding on through Thursday as a deep low settles off the West
Coast. Energy exiting the Gulf of AK will eventually break
through the ridge and into the Pac NW by the end of the week.
For now the ensemble mean shows precipitation chances increasing
across the region on Thursday, though latest deterministic
GFS/EC/Canadian hold off until Friday. The ridging and resulting
warming aloft will keep temperatures at or above normal through
Thursday, cooling to near normal on Friday. Certainly seeing an
inversion signal in the temperatures with highs lower Snake
Plain within a few degrees of mtn valleys if not the same.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...ST
AVIATION.....JY
AIR STAGNATION...DG/ST
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....DG