164
FXUS65 KBOI 281658
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
958 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

.DISCUSSION...A cold front will bring a brief band of
precipitation through the area with snow levels around
4000-5000` today. This band is situated from Ontario to McCall
this and will move southeast this morning before weakening by
the time it gets to the Magic Valley. The cold front will clean
out the inversion and mix out the fog in the valleys by this
afternoon, with breezy west-northwest winds. Strongest winds
will be in the Magic Valley with gusts to 35-40 mph this
afternoon. Fog is forecast to redevelop in the valleys tonight
into Saturday morning, with the best chance coming along the
foothills in the Boise metro, to the Magic Valley, Baker Valley
and around Burns OR. First snow of the season possible for many
valleys locations on Sunday morning. Forecast has been updated
to increase precipitation chances this morning. Sunday morning
will need higher chance so precipitation and will be addressed
in the afternoon forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...VLIFR-IFR in low stratus/fog this morning, mainly in the
Treasure Valley and mtn valleys. Fog is lifting to low stratus, with
conditions improving inside and behind a band of rain/snow moving NW
to SE. Some freezing precip has been observed out of the band near
KONO. The band is following a cold front dropping snow levels to 4-5
kft MSL. Slight clearing this evening before fog/stratus returns
tonight. Surface winds: variable less than 10 kt, becoming NW 10-25
kt with gusts 20-35 kt this afternoon, strongest from KMUO to
KJER/KTWF. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NW 15-30 kt.

KBOI...LIFR/VLIFR fog expected to lift to stratus as frontal showers
arrive just after 17Z. The light rain will last for a few hours
before post-frontal winds arrive and improve conditions to VFR.
Surface winds light and variable, then NW 7-15 kt with gusts 18-25
kt with the front this afternoon.

Weekend Outlook...A 30-50% chance of snow Saturday night into Sunday
morning, with snow levels on valley floors. MVFR to LIFR in snow
with mountain obscuration. Surface winds: E-SE 5-15 kt Saturday,
becoming W-NW 5-15 kt with afternoon gusts 15-25 kt Sunday.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...Dense Fog Advisory
for the Treasure and western Magic Valleys looks marginal early
this morning, but hi-res models and MOS products continue to
support it until 9 AM MST. After that a Pacific cold front will
generate enough mixing and wind to quickly end the fog. Synoptic
models have only minimal QPF with the incoming front, but hi-
res models are wetter and agree with each other so we favor
that forecast. Post-frontal northwest winds will increase to
15-25 mph in the Snake Basin this afternoon, with gusts to 35
mph from Mountain Home eastward, not strong enough for a Wind
Advisory. Clearing, calming, and colder tonight and Saturday
morning behind the exiting cold front. Increasing clouds from
the north later Saturday as the next short wave trough
approaches from the BC coast. With cold air still in place,
this trough should supply enough moisture to generate light
snow in most of our CWA Saturday night. The Treasure Valley
should get a dusting. Little if any impact on travel is
expected, though.

LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...After a ridge briefly
builds overhead on Monday, an upper level trough will move
across the area from northwest to southeast Monday night into
Tuesday. This trajectory will contain limited moisture, and only
light precipitation amounts are expected. Snow levels will be
around 2500-3500 feet, supporting potential for a rain/snow mix
in the lower valleys. However, there is only a 10% chance of
accumulating snow in the Treasure Valley. Winds will be breezy
on Tuesday as the system moves through, and temperatures will be
near normal.

An amplified pattern featuring a ridge in the eastern Pacific
and trough in the central U.S. will bring cool and mostly dry
northwesterly flow over our area Wednesday and Thursday. This
will keep temperatures near normal with only a slight (15-25%)
chance of snow in the central Idaho mountains. By Friday,
forecast confidence decreases with significant disagreement
in the ensembles about the pattern moving forward. The ridge
is expected to flatten, but how much is uncertain. If zonal
flow can become established, models indicate a much wetter and
mild pattern returning to the area, but if the ridge hangs on,
mostly dry conditions would continue. This uncertainty results
in a 20-50% chance of rain and snow on Friday, with further
adjustments likely as models come into better agreement.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....JM
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....ST