507
FXUS65 KBOI 240353
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
853 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

.DISCUSSION...A cold front will move through the area on Monday
morning, with scattered showers along the front. West-northwest
winds of 10-20 mph expected, except 20-30 mph with gusts up to
40 mph around the Magic Valley Monday afternoon. Winds subside
after sunset on Monday night with dry and cool conditions. Dry
conditions for most of Tuesday, before the next system arrives
from the northwest with increasing clouds late. Forecast has
been updated for increased winds on Monday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...A cold front will bring increasing clouds tonight. Low
VFR/MVFR cigs late tonight into Monday morning with IFR/LIFR in the
mountains with mountain obscuration. Light precipitation across the
north tonight, with a few showers along the front Monday morning
elsewhere. Snow levels 5-6kft MSL, lowering to 3-4kft by Monday
afternoon. Surface winds: Variable up to 10 kt, becoming W-NW 10-20
kt Monday afternoon, gusts 25-35 kt s-central ID. Winds aloft at
10kft MSL: W-SW 25-40 kt, becoming NW after Mon/18z.

KBOI...VFR with increasing clouds and lowering ceilings overnight. A
few light rain showers Monday morning, mainly 12-16z. Surface winds:
Light and variable overnight, becoming NW Monday morning with
gusts 20-25 kt in the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...Mid and high
clouds have begun spilling over the region ahead of an
approaching Pacific weather system. Low stratus continues to
retreat to the west, with persistence across the lower Treasure
Valley of Idaho and Oregon and along the I-84 and Highway 20
corridors in eastern Oregon. These clouds are expected to thin
as the trough approaches and moves overhead tonight into early
Monday. The trough remains on track to deliver a chance of
precipitation to the area beginning early Monday, followed by
breezy northwest winds Monday afternoon and evening. Snow levels
are expected to hover between 4800 and 5500 feet as the trough
passes, and snow amounts at or above that elevation will be
limited to 1-5 inches, with less than an inch of snow expected
for mountain valley locations such as McCall (10% chance of an
inch or more). Winds are expected to pick up behind the front
which will help to scour out any remaining inversion. Guidance
suggests a 60% probability of gusts of 30-35 mph for south
central Idaho, including the Magic Valley, on Monday afternoon
and evening. Dry northwest flow is forecasted for Tuesday,
with increasing clouds late in the day and overnight ahead of
another Pacific weather system. Temperatures will be closer to
normal behind the cold front.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...The region will sit on the
northern periphery of a ridge come Wednesday. Moisture advecting
around this periphery will lead to widespread mid/high cloud cover
throughout the day, and support a 20-70% chance of precipitation
generally north of a line connecting Burns, Boise, and Fairfield
through Thursday. These precipitation chances increase as you move
north where the strongest moisture advection can be found. Come
Friday, the evolution of the system will get interesting. A
shortwave will move over our area bringing widespread precipitation
chances of 20-60%, with the lower values found in lower elevations.
As this shortwave passes, deterministic guidance is resolving a
reinforcing shot of energy quick behind with increased chances of
precipitation accompanying it. Snow levels lowering to 2.5-3.5 kft
MSL Saturday morning may give way to a wintery mix throughout the
Snake Plain. This short wave then digs down to become a deep
positively tilted trough extending from Manitoba, Canada all the way
to SoCal with a large amplitude ridge off the west coast; ensemble
clusters like this solution as well. This supports lower snow levels
and cooler temperatures...However, the magnitude of both would
depend on just how deep this trough gets which is still uncertain at
this time. For now am maintaining temperatures reaching around 5
degrees below normal with snow levels at 1-2 kft MSL come
Sunday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....ST
SHORT TERM...MC
LONG TERM....NF