469
FXUS65 KBOI 110949
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
249 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night...Mild and dry
conditions continue today and through much of the short term as
a ridge persists. An inversion remains over many lower valleys,
with mixing heights near to less than 2 kft AGL. Temps today
through Thursday will be 10-15 degrees above normal, with the
warmest day being Wednesday. As southwesterly flow increases
ahead of the trough later in the week, winds increase Wednesday
and Thursday. A 15 to 30 percent chance of showers is expected
across southeast Oregon and the central Idaho mountains late
Wednesday night as the trough moves inland. Snow levels will be
8000 to 9000 feet MSL as the precipitation begins. Clouds
increase Wednesday as a high- amplitude trough strengthens over
the West Coast. Isolated showers develop late Thursday, with
higher confidence early Friday as the trough and cold front move
through the region.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...A strong trough axis moves
overhead Friday, with a cold front bringing precipitation and
colder temperatures. In lower elevations there will be a 40-60%
chance of precipitation late Thursday through Friday morning, in
higher elevations it will be 80-90%. Similarly, the forecast
rainfall totals are up to 0.15 inches for lower elevations, and
up to 0.5 inches for higher. Temps will cool to just a few
degrees above normal for this time of year, and snow levels drop
to 5-6 kft MSL by Friday afternoon. Snow on ridges and high
elevation passes will be 1-3 inches. After Sunday deterministic
models depict a trough deepening in the region, consistent with
ensemble clusters. Although, while most clusters show the
trough deepening over the area Tuesday morning, one cluster and
the GFS deterministic show another closed low off the SoCal
coast forming. All this to say: while generally unsettled and
colder weather is in store Monday/Tuesday, significant uncertainty
remains in the details as of the latest runs.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with mid/high-level clouds. A 10% chance of
valley fog this morning, mostly in mtns. Surface winds: variable
less than 10 kt. Winds at 10kft MSL: W 15-25 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Surface winds SE up to 5 kt this morning, variable
late this afternoon.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...Inverted conditions today through early
Wednesday as high pressure and subsidence keep mixing heights
near to slightly below 2 kft AGL in valleys. Mixing heights
slightly rise each day as a trough and cold front approaches
Thursday/Friday, eventually removing the inversion.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION.....JM
AIR STAGNATION...JM