014
FXUS65 KBOU 300545
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1045 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Coldest air of the season will stick around through Monday
  morning.

- Another round of light to moderate mountain snow expected
  Sunday/Sunday night, with smaller chances of lighter snow for
  the lower elevations.

- Slightly milder and mostly dry Monday/Tuesday. Then another
  potential shot at wintry precipitation Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Sunday Night/...
Issued at 205 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

The shortwave responsible for Denver`s first official snowfall of
the year (an exciting 0.2") has raced into the Midwest, leaving
most of Colorado in a cold but dry airmass. Temperatures this
afternoon have remained in the mid 20s to low 30s, and won`t warm
much further over the next hour or two. Meanwhile, the strong wind
gusts over the northeast plains have gradually diminished over the
past couple hours and should continue to weaken as the stronger
mid-level flow shifts off to the east.

We`ll be left with a fairly quiet night tonight, with high cloud
cover gradually spreading across the area in advance of the next
quick moving storm system. Overnight lows should drop into the
single digits for many locations, but may be dependent on how
quickly cloud cover spreads back in. With the cold airmass
remaining overhead, daytime highs on Sunday will again stall out
in the 20s to 30s across most of the forecast area.

The next shortwave is expected to swing from its current position
in Washington down into the Four Corners region by Sunday night,
before quickly ejecting into the central Great Plains on Monday.
While the best QG ascent is short lived and a little to the
south/west of our forecast area, there`s enough moisture for
orographic snow showers across the mountains. There may be a
period of enhanced snow rates during the evening hours, aided by a
favorable upper jet streak position and mid-level frontogenesis.
This would also favor a band or two of snow making it into the
I-25 corridor and plains, though accumulations would be fairly
limited. Unlike this past event, guidance does actually produce
some modest QPF/snow as far east as I-25, and at least a few spots
might see up to an inch or so of snow across the Denver metro.
Totals in the mountains will generally be similar to this previous
event, with generally 4-10" of snow expected on favored slopes.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Issued at 205 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

With the trough rapidly exiting to the east Monday, temperatures
will manage to climb slightly above freezing, although a brisk
northerly wind during the daytime hours will keep it feeling rather
cold despite the breaking cloud cover.

Flow aloft will begin backing to a more westerly direction by
Tuesday in response to a developing shortwave over the Northern
Rockies. We`ll see gradual deepening of moisture over the high
country through the day which will allow for some light orographic
snow showers, especially for our more northern mountains,
although any potential travel impacts would more likely hold off
until the overnight period or Wednesday. Guidance indicates the
core of the shortwave shearing off to the SW and becoming a
cutoff low, with a still substantial variance in its positioning
and progression. Generally, the latest ensemble guidance appears
slightly more favorable for a period of relatively shallow upslope
flow on the urban corridor side for Wednesday, supported by the
increase in members showing some snow accumulations for the lower
elevations. Around 1/4 of members produce ~0.20" or more for parts
of the I-25 corridor and plains, indicating at least a higher
potential for travel impacts to these areas compared to this
weekend`s weaker clipper systems. It`s far from unanimous however,
with placement and track of the cutoff low being the primary
factor to watch. Per usual, confidence in travel impacts is
slightly higher for our mountainous areas on Wednesday.
Regardless, temperatures look to regress closer to the freezing
mark after Tuesday`s modest warmup.

Model agreement increases considerably past Wednesday. Generally
speaking, ensembles favor continued troughing over the northern
CONUS/Canada with ridging closer to the West Coast. This leaves the
door open for the passage of a few shortwaves through the northern
plains and/or Rockies, but there`s little clarity as to their
frequency or track. It`s a pattern that would lend greater
confidence to the potential for windier conditions across the region
for the latter half of the week along with some moderation in
temperatures, with the precipitation component carrying more
uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday/...
Issued at 1045 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

A weak Denver Cyclone is forming, with a gradual move to the
northeast forecast overnight. The track of feature will be very
close to KDEN which means winds will likely become VRB for a
couple hours around 08Z-10Z, before winds switch to a more
westerly component on the back side of cyclone. Winds on Sunday
will probably take a few hours to recover to normal diurnal (if at
all tomorrow given increasing clouds). Whatever the case, winds
speeds should remain under 10 kts, although we did maintain a more
SE wind close to 10 kts in the TAF for the afternoon considering
if they did turn southeast (60% chance) they would be slightly
stronger.

Meanwhile, clouds will increase, thicken, and lower through the
day. IMC is likely by 00Z as the next weather disturbance
approaches, and enough synoptic scale lift to add TEMPO -SN with
some visibility restriction into the TAF for 02Z-06Z. We could
see -SN develop at KBJC even earlier (closer to 00Z), but the
probability of snow there is a little lower considering best
frontogenetical forcing will favor I-70 corridor and points
south. Still looks like any snowfall Sunday evening would be
light, with amounts less than an inch.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 5 AM MST Monday for
COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hiris
LONG TERM...BRQ
AVIATION...20