607
FXUS61 KBOX 101956
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
256 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Periods of showers with even an isolated thunderstorm come to an end
by mid-evening...followed by drier and much colder temperatures
later tonight into Tuesday/Veterans Day. We do expect a few brief
passing snow showers on Tuesday/Veterans Day especially in the
Berkshires. Blustery weather continues for the latter half of the
week with nothing more than a few brief passing rain/snow showers.
Perhaps a round of more significant precipitation arrives sometime
early next week with rain favored...but some snow/ice not out of
the question at the onset in the the high terrain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

Key Messages...

* Periods of showers/isolated t-storm risk end by mid-evening
* Otherwise, dry but turning colder/blustery tonight
* Wind Chills dropping into the upper teens & 20s by daybreak Tue
* Some snow showers approach the Berkshires toward daybreak Tue

Details...

Through Tonight...

A wave of low pressure riding along a frontal boundary will lift
northeast across the Cape/Islands late this afternoon/early this
evening. This is somewhat of an ana-frontal wave...so expect periods
of showers to persist in the late afternoon/early evening hours
before departing the coast line by mid-evening or so. There is
enough elevated instability for an isolated t-storm or two. It
may just get cold enough for precipitation to end as a bit of
wet snow in the higher terrain of western MA...but no impacts
expected.

Otherwise...as this waves of low pressure lifts into northern New
England/Canadian Maritimes...a drier but much colder/blustery
airmass will work into the region. Any remaining fog will
quickly scour out behind the front. Low temperatures will drop
through the 40s and eventually into the 30s later tonight with
even a few upper 20s possible in the high terrain. Wind Chills
will drop into the upper teens and 20s by daybreak
Tuesday/Veterans Day.

Lastly...we may see some snow showers begin to work into the
Berkshires toward daybreak with cold westerly flow/Lake Effect
moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

Key Messages...

* Windy & unseasonably cold Tue with highs in the upper 30s/lower 40s
* Snow showers in the Berks bring a coating to 2" of snow
* A few brief snow showers possible across the rest of the region Tue

Details...

Tuesday/Veterans Day...

Windy and unseasonably cold weather follows on Tuesday behind
tonight/s cold front. 850T near -10C and a fair amount of strato-cu
will likely hold high temps mainly in the upper 30s and lower 40s
with only middle 30s in the high terrain! Those readings are about
10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Bufkit
soundings indicate westerly wind gusts of 30-40+ mph resulting in
wind chills remaining in the 20s to near 30. We may see a few 45+
mph wind gusts...but areal coverage/duration will be limited so not
planning any Wind Advisories at this time.

Fairly vigorous shortwave energy will also be crossing the region on
Tue with 500T near -36C. This coupled with cold westerly flow and
remnant Lake Effect moisture will result in periods of snow showers
for the Berkshires. A coating to 2" of snow accumulations are
possible across the Berks...which may result in some slippery
travel. Across the rest of the region...thinking enough dynamics are
present for a few snow showers at times even right to the coastal
plain. No concerns here for accums/travel issues...but will be the
first time this season folks see snow flakes.

Tuesday night...

The bulk of the lingering snow showers/flurries should come to an
end early Tue evening as shortwave departs. It will remain blustery
though...so this will probably keep temps from bottoming out. It
still will be quite chilly though with lows Tuesday night mainly in
the upper 20s and lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Key Messages...

* Blustery & chilly Wed through Sat with northing more than a few
  brief passing rain/snow showers at times...Highs mainly in the 40s

* Perhaps more significant precipitation arrives early next week
  probably in the form of rain...but some snow/ice not out of
  the question at the onset in the high terrain

Details...

Wednesday through Saturday...

Upper trough remains across the northeast for the second half of the
week. While there will be little low level support/moisture for
precipitation...upper level energy will be enough to support a few
brief passing rain/snow showers at times. Otherwise...just continued
blustery/chilly with below normal high temps mainly in the 40s. Low
temps will mainly be in the 20s to the lower 30s.

Early Next Week...

Forecast confidence diminishes considerably early next week. The
upper level trough pushes east of the region...but another shortwave
trough will be digging across the Great Lakes early next week. This
may result in a wave of low pressure pushing towards us from the
west. This may result in a better chance for more significant
precipitation for our region sometime early next week...but it is
way too early to say much more. Ptype would favor mainly rain at
this time...but some snow/ice not out of the question at the
onset across parts of the interior high terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z TAF Update:

Rest of Today...Moderate confidence.

Rain showers are currently moving through much of
eastern/central MA and RI with some stronger showers with a
rumble of thunder out over the waters south of Martha`s
Vineyard. IFR with LIFR ceilings are expected to prevail for
most terminals until after 00z. Winds through the rest of the
day remain light and vary between N and NE for most, except for
the Islands where S to SW winds continue.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR. W winds increase and become around 12-15 kt, gusts 20-25
kt, stronger near daybreak.

Tuesday...High confidence.

SCT-BKN VFR ceilings; periodic afternoon -SHSN (4 SM visby)
could affect BAF. W winds 15-25 kt gusts 30-35 kt, near 40 kt
for ORH.

Tuesday night...High confidence.

VFR. Gusty W winds up to 35 kt continue through the overnight
period, though they should decrease slightly as the night goes
on. Some scattered -SHSN remain possible for the Berkshires.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Higher confidence in ceilings remaining IFR through the rest of
today before the frontal passage tonight, which should usher in
VFR quite rapidly. Winds light N to NNE until then.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Some hit-or-miss showers remain possible through the rest of
the day today until just after 01z tonight.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt.

Wednesday: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Slight
chance SHRA, slight chance SHSN.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance
SHSN.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight
chance SHRA.

Friday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Key Messages....

* Gale Force Westerly wind gusts of 30-40+ knots Tue/Tue evening

Details...

Tonight through Tuesday night...High confidence.

Showers/isolated thunderstorms depart by mid-evening as low
pressure lifts into northern New England. This will sweep a
strong cold front across the waters tonight allowing any
remaining fog to quickly dissipate. As this happens...winds
will shift to the west and rapidly increase in the CAA later
tonight. High confidence in W wind gusts of 30-40+ knots Tue
into Tue night across all waters...so Gale Warnings remain
posted for all waters.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up
to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Slight chance
of rain showers.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM to 11 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ230-236.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frank
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/Hrencecin
MARINE...Frank