Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
845 FXUS64 KBRO 101734 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1134 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1123 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 -Rain free and pleasant conditions continue through Thursday, with a warming trend into the weekend -Low to medium (25 to 40 percent) rain chances arrive Sunday into Monday along a stalling frontal boundary && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1123 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 A persistent trough of low pressure with a series of winter systems works through the Great Lakes and New England into early next week. Closer to home, a weak shortwave trough gradually moves east across Texas this weekend, followed by a brief 500mb ridge of high pressure, and then a stronger shortwave settles into the Southern Plains by Tuesday. At the surface, weak low pressure and a meandering frontal boundary will bring drier air from west to east through the afternoon and maybe some fog overnight, otherwise, relatively comfortable conditions. The front lifts north as a warm front on Friday, then drops back down on Sunday before stalling or washing out. Temperatures are generally expected to be above normal, with near normal highs Thursday and Monday, and potentially record highs at BRO on Friday. A stronger front may be on the horizon just beyond the forecast period, although, current probabilities are at 60-70 percent for above normal temperatures Dec 17 through Dec 23. The chance of rain remains low (less than 20 percent) and mainly along the coast Friday into Sunday morning, then increases to a low to medium (25 to 40 percent) chance of showers or isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon before diminishing again on Monday. The trend has continued to run drier with each forecast package this week, nudging confidence lower in any widespread beneficial rain. The 8-14 day CPC outlook is leaning toward above normal precipitation through Dec 23, at around 33-50 percent. Patchy fog may be possible in the early morning hours into next week, with limited winds and multiple boundaries. Favorable beach conditions are expected into the weekend, with an increase in life-threatening rip currents Sunday into early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail into tonight, with MVFR to brief IFR ceilings and patchy fog possible late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Winds remain light and variable near MFE and west, with breezy southerly winds at HRL and BRO, expected to all turn light and northerly by early Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1123 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 A couple of weak frontal boundaries and generally lighter onshore winds will maintain favorable marine conditions into the weekend. A cold front arrives or stalls across the waters on Sunday, increasing the chance of rain into next week, and builds seas briefly into Monday with Small Craft Caution level winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 81 59 78 63 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 83 54 76 59 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 84 55 76 62 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 84 53 76 57 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 65 73 67 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 61 76 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56-Hallman LONG TERM....56-Hallman AVIATION...56-Hallman