881
FXUS64 KBRO 052327 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
527 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 520 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

 - Brief periods of light rain and/or drizzle continue across
   Deep South Texas today, followed by a slightly elevated
   (20-40%) chance tonight, with the best chances along the coast.

 - Temperature warm ups and cool downs continue throughout the
   forecast as several cold fronts pass through, with the first
   front expected during the day on Sunday.

 - High risk of rip currents today becomes a low risk for tonight
   and tomorrow.

 - Adverse marine conditions are likely Sunday evening into Monday
   behind the passage of the cold front on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1116 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

An active weather pattern continues across the US, bringing a series
of cold fronts and varying temperatures to Deep South Texas through
this weekend and next week. In the meantime, clouds and chances of
light rain or drizzle remain possible throughout this afternoon,
with probabilities of precipitation (PoP`s) increasing slightly
overnight tonight to a low to medium (20-40%) chance across our
region, highest along the immediate coast, in response to coastal
troughing. Chances decrease throughout tomorrow and PoP`s are
anticipated to remain below 10% into the remainder of the forecast.
Otherwise, ridging takes over on Sunday behind a cold front and
additional fronts are possible from mid to late next week as
troughs pass north of the County Warning Area.

Mainly overcast skies and cold air advection (CAA) from northerly
winds around a surface high pressure over Texas will keep today`s
high in the mid to upper 60s, which is 10-15 degrees F below
average. Return flow starts to set up warm air advection (WAA)
tonight into tomorrow as the surface high moves into the eastern
CONUS, causing temperatures to rise to near normal tonight and
tomorrow, with upper 50s tomorrow morning and 70s tomorrow
afternoon. Temperatures continue to warm into the 80s on Sunday
ahead of a cold front passing through all of Deep South Texas by
possibly early Sunday evening. CAA behind the front cools
temperatures back to the 60s on Monday, followed by a gradual
warming trend, with mainly 70s on Tuesday rising into the 80s for
the remainder of the week, despite brief shifts in winds out of
the north with weak cold fronts passing through.

A high risk of rip currents continues today, improving to a low risk
for tonight and tomorrow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

MVFR ceilings are expected to persist overnight before becoming
VFR Saturday afternoon. Winds are forecast to be light and
variable to calm through the period. A low chance for light rain
or drizzle will continue tonight, however the probability of
impacts at any TAF site are too low to include in the TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1116 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Marine conditions continue to improve, expecting gentle to
moderate northerly winds and slight to moderate (2-3 feet) seas to
resume by this evening, with winds becoming southeasterly to
southerly throughout tomorrow evening and night. Winds shift out
of the north during the day on Sunday as a cold front moves
through the Lower Texas coastal waters. Small Craft Advisory
headlines are likely Sunday evening into Monday as fresh to
strong northerly winds arrive in the wake of the front, leading to
adverse marine conditions with moderate (7 feet or higher) seas
anticipated. Winds and seas improve throughout Monday evening into
Tuesday as slight to moderate seas and southeasterly to southerly
winds return by the middle of next week. Periods of Small Craft
Excercise Caution conditions are possible as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             60  77  66  84 /  20  10   0  10
HARLINGEN               57  76  63  83 /  30  10   0   0
MCALLEN                 59  78  66  86 /  30  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         57  79  61  86 /  30  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      64  74  70  78 /  30  10   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     59  76  65  82 /  30  10   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...60-BE