524
FXUS64 KBRO 240500
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1100 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1048 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

 - Above average high temperatures continue through Tuesday.

 - A cold front pushes through Tuesday night into Wednesday,
   bringing a medium (40-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms
   across the region.

 - More seasonable temperatures are forecast behind the front just
   in time for Thanksgiving, but won`t stick around through the
   weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1048 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Hot, primarily rain-free conditions are expected to continue through
Tuesday, with high temperatures well above normal for late November.
Daily high temperature records will be neared, tied, or broken. A
low-level jet will maintain gusty southeasterly winds, around 30 kts
Monday ahead of an approaching initial frontal boundary. This
boundary may drift into the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country late
this afternoon, bringing a shift of winds from the north before
stalling. At lower Texas beaches, there is a high risk of rip
currents through Monday evening.

Tuesday night, a second cold front accelerating across the CWA will
provide a medium chance of rain (40 to 60%) overnight into early
Wednesday across the CWA, with a lingering low to medium chance of
showers (20 to 40%) through Wednesday afternoon along the Rio
Grande. There is a chance for strong thunderstorms along the front.

Cooler air will advect in behind the front, bringing more seasonable
temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. These will not last long, as
above-average temperatures gradually return Friday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1048 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Southeasterly winds around 10-15 kts will continue overnight.
Between midnight and sunrise, low clouds may develop, which have
a 30% chance of bringing occasional MVFR ceilings to sites.
Monday morning, southerly winds become gusty around 30kts. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail at all sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1048 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Adverse conditions with gusty south winds and moderate seas will
prevail through Monday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in
effect from midnight Monday until 3 PM CST Monday afternoon.
Conditions gradually improve as an approaching frontal boundary
stalls over South Texas. A second, stronger cold front is expected
to cross over lower Texas Waters late Tuesday, once again returning
adverse conditions. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines and SCA
are likely Wednesday. Rain chances are low (20%) Monday night into
Tuesday, increasing to medium (50 to 60%) across the waters as the
cold front pushes through. Lightning, gusty winds, and reduced
visibility with heavy rain are possible in any storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             87  74  88  71 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               88  69  90  67 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 90  72  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         91  69  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  77  83  75 /  10   0   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     86  72  87  69 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Monday for GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...69-HK