731
FXUS64 KBRO 241137 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
537 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 527 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

 - Above average high temperatures continue through Tuesday.

 - A cold front pushes through Tuesday night into Wednesday,
   bringing a medium (40-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms
   across the region.

 - More seasonable temperatures are forecast behind the front just
   in time for Thanksgiving, but won`t stick around through the
   weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1048 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Hot, primarily rain-free conditions are expected to continue through
Tuesday, with high temperatures well above normal for late November.
Daily high temperature records will be neared, tied, or broken. A
low-level jet will maintain gusty southeasterly winds, around 30 kts
Monday ahead of an approaching initial frontal boundary. This
boundary may drift into the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country late
this afternoon, bringing a shift of winds from the north before
stalling. At lower Texas beaches, there is a high risk of rip
currents through Monday evening.

Tuesday night, a second cold front accelerating across the CWA will
provide a medium chance of rain (40 to 60%) overnight into early
Wednesday across the CWA, with a lingering low to medium chance of
showers (20 to 40%) through Wednesday afternoon along the Rio
Grande. There is a chance for strong thunderstorms along the front.

Cooler air will advect in behind the front, bringing more seasonable
temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. These will not last long, as
above-average temperatures gradually return Friday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Southeasterly winds between 10-15 kts prevail across Deep South
Texas early this morning. Latest upper air data indicates south-
southeast winds around 38 kts at 2000 ft. Winds are expected to
become breezy by mid morning with some gusts around 30 kts later
this morning into the afternoon. Southeast winds will gradually
decrease this evening into tonight. VFR conditions will continue
for the next 24 hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1048 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Adverse conditions with gusty south winds and moderate seas will
prevail through Monday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in
effect from midnight Monday until 3 PM CST Monday afternoon.
Conditions gradually improve as an approaching frontal boundary
stalls over South Texas. A second, stronger cold front is expected
to cross over lower Texas Waters late Tuesday, once again returning
adverse conditions. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines and SCA
are likely Wednesday. Rain chances are low (20%) Monday night into
Tuesday, increasing to medium (50 to 60%) across the waters as the
cold front pushes through. Lightning, gusty winds, and reduced
visibility with heavy rain are possible in any storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             88  71  88  69 /   0   0  10  40
HARLINGEN               90  67  90  65 /   0   0  10  40
MCALLEN                 93  71  91  69 /   0   0  10  50
RIO GRANDE CITY         92  66  90  64 /   0   0  10  50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  75  83  73 /   0  10  10  50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     87  69  87  67 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ130-
     132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...63-KC