Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
519 FXUS64 KBRO 182313 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 513 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 512 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 * Warm and breezy conditions persist into early next week. * A nearby frontal boundary and passing storm systems bring low to medium rain chances between 15-30% Thursday into early next week. * Life-threatening rip currents are expected along the beaches of the lower Texas coast into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1106 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Low pressure across Southern California and the Desert SW generally persists through this week, before the trough swings into the Southern Plains this weekend and early next week. At the surface, a frontal boundary draped across northern and central Texas all week makes a run south Thursday night into Friday, likely stalling in the ranchlands, before kicking back north as a warm front late this weekend into early next week. The system swings back through as a cold front by mid next week. Overall, this means well-above normal to near record temperatures persist through this week across Deep South Texas with gradually increasing moisture leading to a chance of rain returning Thursday, mainly across the ranchlands. This chance of rain increases slightly through the weekend near the frontal boundary into early next week, again, mainly across the ranchlands. Temperatures over the weekend and into early next week remain above normal, potentially nudged down a few degrees where clouds or any showers persist. We will continue to monitor temperature trends behind the next front, with current guidance leaning towards normal to slightly below normal temperatures arriving by Thanksgiving. Breezy southeasterly winds are expected nearly every afternoon, especially Wednesday and Thursday. Life-threatening rip currents likely persist along the lower Texas coast into next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1106 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Conditions have bounced around a little between MVFR and VFR this morning, with VFR ceilings generally expected through the remainder of the TAF period. A southeasterly breeze is expected through the afternoon, especially when the clouds break up more, diminishing this evening through tonight. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 512 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Through 00z Thursday....VFR conditions by and large will be in place through the 00z TAF period. MVFR ceilings are possible from time to time. A sharp inversion could lead to mostly cloudy skies similar to today. Southeast winds 5-15 kts will prevail through the 00z TAF period. Winds could gusts as high as 25 kts, particularly during the afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1106 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Southeasterly winds persist into early next week, increasing into Thursday and again Sunday into Monday due to an enhanced pressure gradient along the lower Texas coast. SCEC to SCA conditions are possible Wednesday into Thursday and again Sunday into Monday. The chance of showers and thunderstorms returns late Wednesday night and continues into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 73 89 72 88 / 10 0 10 10 HARLINGEN 69 91 69 89 / 10 10 10 20 MCALLEN 72 93 73 92 / 0 0 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 70 94 70 93 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 83 76 82 / 10 10 10 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 88 71 87 / 10 10 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56-Hallman LONG TERM....56-Hallman AVIATION...23-Evbuoma