737
FXUS64 KBRO 152336 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
536 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 520 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

* Adverse marine conditions this morning gradually improve
  throughout the day today.

* A high risk of rip currents and other beach hazards continue
  through this afternoon.

* Probabilities of precipitation (PoPs) steadily increase throughout
  Tuesday night to a low to medium (20-50%) chance of rain by
  Wednesday morning.

* Dry conditions return overnight Wednesday aside from a low (15-20%)
  chance of rain near the coast in association with a weak cold
  front Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

The cold front that brought the cooler temperatures is well into
the Gulf, and we are feeling the last of the cold air advection
from this front. This evening, winds will shift from the north to
the east, then the southeast, as high pressure builds in the Gulf
behind the front. With the southeasterly winds will come an
increase in dew points as moisture builds across the RGV. Aloft, a
trough will dig south into Mexico before lifting north along the
coast. This system will cause enough instability to bring
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the region. PoPs
will not be evenly distributed with a low chance (10-30%) for
showers on the western side of the CWA and a high chance (50-70%)
along the coast Wednesday and Wednesday night. Rainfall totals
dont look too impressive with the average amounts around 0.02
inches with even the 90th percentile below 0.10 inches for most of
the region.

Thursday going into Friday, a dry cold front is expected to move
through the region. Rain wont be a concern with this front, but
it will drop our highs back into the 70s with dew points in the
40s and 50s. The cool down will be short-lived as high pressure in
the Gulf reasserts itself, and warm air advection brings
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal, with highs in the 80s.
The rest of the forecast looks to be warm and humid as we head
into Christmas week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

MVFR ceilings are expected to return tonight and generally prevail
into Tuesday with light winds gradually shifting southeasterly.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1100 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Most of the impacts today are on the marine side, even with the
decreasing winds and waves. Multiple hazards are in effect both
along the coast and offshore. Along the coast, there is a high rip
current risk, high surf advisory, and a beach hazard statment until
6 PM this evening. Wave heights are between 4 and 6 feet and have
a swell of 8 seconds, leading to surf heights of 7 to 8 feet.
Offshore winds are above the 20-knot threshold for a small craft
advisory; similar to the coastal hazards, winds will fall below
hazardous levels this evening.

In the extended forecast, rain chances will return on Wednesday,
followed by a weak cold front on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             55  76  67  78 /   0  10  50  70
HARLINGEN               51  76  63  78 /   0  10  40  60
MCALLEN                 54  76  64  79 /   0  10  50  50
RIO GRANDE CITY         50  71  60  78 /   0  10  40  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      61  73  69  75 /   0  10  50  70
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     55  75  64  78 /   0  10  40  70

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454-
     455.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68-McGinnis
LONG TERM....68-McGinnis
AVIATION...56-Hallman