003
FXUS64 KBRO 081717
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1117 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1111 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

 - High temperatures in the 80s return by Wednesday along with
   abundant sunshine continuing through Thursday as ridging aloft
   persists, leading to a very low (less than 10%) chance of rain.

 - Chances of rain increase Friday night to a low to medium
   (20-40%) chance by Saturday morning, followed by a low (15-20%)
   chance near the coast into Monday.

 - A high risk of rip currents continues through this afternoon
   decreasing to a moderate risk tonight and a low risk by
   tomorrow morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1111 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Mainly quiet weather, plentiful sunshine and a very low (less than
10%) chance of rain is expected to continue for Deep South Texas
through Thursday as ridging aloft persists. In wake of last night`s
cold front, northerly winds from a surface high pressure over the
Southern Plains gradually become easterly tomorrow and southerly by
Wednesday morning as the high slides eastward across the Deep South
US. Moisture begins to build on Friday from southeasterly winds
around a high over the Gulf as a cold front pushes through much of
Texas. Although uncertainty still remains if the front will make
it to our region Friday night, probabilities of precipitation
(PoP`s) are currently anticipated to rise from a low (15-20%)
chance near the coast Friday night to a low to medium (20-40%) by
Saturday morning, highest near the coast. PoP`s decrease inland
throughout Saturday, though coastal troughing may keep a low
(15-20%) chance of rain near the Lower Texas coast into Monday.

Temperatures today and tonight are likely to be the coolest of the
forecast period as highs remain in the mid to upper 60s to possibly
near 70 degrees F for portions of the Rio Grande Valley,
particularly further west. Lows tonight drop to the low to mid
40s inland, near 50 degrees F in Brownsville and low 60s near the
coast. As winds veer to southeasterly to southerly by midweek,
highs rise from the 70s tomorrow to mostly 80s from Wednesday
onward, potentially peaking on Thursday. Overnight minimum
temperatures rise from the 50s tomorrow night to mainly 60s by
Wednesday night.

A high risk of rip currents continues through this afternoon,
becoming a moderate risk overnight tonight and a low risk by
tomorrow morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Moderate, gusty at times, northerly winds of around 10-15 knots,
gusting up to 20 knots, during the day today decrease to light and
variable overnight tonight along with VFR conditions persisting
through the 18 Z TAF cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1111 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate to rough (6-8 ft)
seas today improve to mainly gentle northeasterly winds with gentle
to moderate (2-3 ft) seas by tomorrow morning as the pressure
gradient loosens across the Lower Texas coastal waters. Gentle to
moderate southeasterly to southerly winds return by Wednesday
morning, enhancing to moderate southeasterly winds with moderate (3-
4 ft) seas over the weekend. Chances of rain increase Friday night
to a medium (40-50%) chance on Saturday, decreasing to a low (15-
30%) by Saturday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             67  50  74  57 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               67  45  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 70  48  75  55 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         70  42  73  51 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      65  60  70  64 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     66  51  72  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ130-132-
     135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65-Irish
LONG TERM....65-Irish
AVIATION...65-Irish