509
FXUS64 KBRO 021124 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
624 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025

High pressure gradually gives way to low pressure from the Gulf
working westward into Texas into late next week. As moisture
increases off the Gulf, expect diurnal rain chances to increase
this weekend, working inland with the sea breeze each afternoon.
Generally a medium (40 to 60) percent chance of rain is expected
through the period, with the lowest POPs on Sunday and Monday.
ECMWF and NAM PWATs surge above normal by this weekend, with GFS
PWATs closer to normal for early October. Either way, with little
wind or flow, expect any showers or thunderstorms that develop to
be slow-moving and capable of producing locally heavy rainfall,
especially along and east of US 77 this weekend and along and east
of US 281 by mid week.

Seasonal to slightly above normal temperatures are expected
through Wednesday with rainfall or cloud cover stifling highs at
any locations where activity persists during prime daytime heating
hours. Patchy fog may develop across the ranchlands each night.

A moderate risk of rip currents along the lower Texas coast
likely returns by this weekend, with an increasing swell and
period along the western Gulf due to persistent easterly flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

No changes needed to the previous issuance of TAFs. VFR will
continue to prevail, with light winds and clear to partly cloudy
skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025

Generally favorable winds and seas lead into the start of the
weekend, with an increasing easterly swell by the end of the
weekend bringing a chop to coastal and offshore waters. Brief SCEC
conditions are possible beyond 20 nm late Saturday into Sunday.
The chance of showers and thunderstorms returns Thursday night and
persists through the forecast period, especially offshore, as low
pressure slowly works westward across the Gulf. Waterspouts may
develop near any showers or thunderstorms this weekend and next
week, especially offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             92  74  91  75 /  10  10  50  40
HARLINGEN               93  69  92  71 /  10   0  40  20
MCALLEN                 98  72  96  74 /  10   0  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         97  69  96  70 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      87  80  86  79 /  10  10  50  60
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     89  74  88  74 /  10  10  50  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$