Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
155 FXUS64 KBRO 071136 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 536 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 534 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 -Patchy fog will impact the northern Ranchlands into the Rio Grande Valley, primarily west of US-281 again late tonight into Friday morning. -Temperatures warm through the first part of the weekend with high temperatures well above normal for this time of year. -A cold front moving through on Sunday will cool temperatures through the first part of next week and will raise concerns for marine and fire weather conditions Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1021 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025 Will once again see some patchy fog tonight into early Friday morning, primarily west of US-281, but could spread into the lower Valley. Any fog that does develop could drop visibilities to 1 mile or less at times, but should burn off by mid morning. Ridging in place over Deep South Texas will continue to lead to significant warming across the region. Afternoon temperatures Friday and Saturday will reach the low to mid 90s, well above seasonal averages. The main focus for the forecast period is an upper level low currently located in the Canadian Rockies that will strengthen and dig southward merging with a trough over the northern Plains Friday into Saturday. As this trough digs southward an associated cold front will move through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley early Sunday morning. Temperatures in wake of the cold front will cool to near normal temperatures for Sunday highs. Headed into Sunday night and Monday, a reinforcing push of cold air will drop temperatures Sunday night into the 40s and 50s. Monday will be quite chilly with highs only expected to reach the mid/upper 60s with a few low 70s along the Rio Grande. Monday night will be the coldest night of the forecast period with lows generally in the 40s across the region. There is a medium to high (60-80%) probability of temperatures falling below 40 degrees in the northern Ranchlands and a low (10-20%) chance of a few locations in eastern Brooks and western Kenedy counties falling to the freezing mark. A warming trend will begin on Tuesday with temperatures returning back to near normal by Wednesday. In addition to cooler temperatures, the cold front will also bring a myriad of hazards. Northerly wind behind the front will lead to concerns for wildfire spread, more on that in the Fire Weather section below. The windy conditions may warrant a Wind Advisory early Monday morning on South Padre Island. Will have to continue to monitor this closely. Conditions at area beaches will also become dangerous. High rip currents will be likely along with high surf and coastal flooding with strong winds Sunday into early Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 VFR will continue to be the rule at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1021 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025 Generally favorable conditions are expected through Saturday on the waters off the lower Texas coast with light winds and low seas. A cold front moving south through the region early Sunday will lead to strong northerly winds and increasing wave heights on Sunday into Monday with Small Craft Advisories needed. A few gusts to Gale conditions can not be ruled out at this time. Favorable conditions will return late Monday night into Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1021 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025 A strong cold front will move through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley early Sunday morning. In wake of this front, northerly winds of 15-20 mph with gusts of 20 to 30 mph will combine with humidity levels falling to the teens and 20s along and west of I-69E. This will lead to the potential for wildfire spread, primarily across the Ranchlands and into potions of the mid- valley on Sunday and spreading into portions of the lower Valley Sunday night into Monday. A Fire Danger Statement will likely be needed for Sunday/Monday and will continue to closely monitor for the potential for a Red Flag Warning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 89 69 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 92 64 93 64 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 95 66 96 68 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 96 59 96 62 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 74 84 73 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 67 88 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$