739
FXUS61 KBTV 221254
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
754 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be dry and seasonable with variable cloudiness
today as weak high pressure noses in. Light snow will spread across
the region on Sunday from west to east, with minor accumulations
from a coating to 2 inches by Monday morning. Unsettled weather,
mainly in the form of light rain, will resume late Tuesday with
chances of precipitation continuing through Thanksgiving.
Temperatures will likely peak on Wednesday, with otherwise
seasonable weather expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 750 AM EST Saturday...Have issued a quick update this
morning, mainly to add patchy fog to the forecast for another
few hours. Fog has been quite dense in spots in some of the
favored river valleys, and expect it will likely be slow to
dissipate with the high cloud cover and low sun angle. It should
be noted that road surfaces and air temperatures are near to
below freezing in a lot of areas, so there could be a bit of
black ice where the fog has been thickest, especially on raised
surfaces like bridges. The only other change with this update
was to increase cloud cover over central and southern areas
based on current satellite imagery. Otherwise, the forecast
remains in good shape this morning.

Previous discussion...GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows two
areas of interest today passing to our north and south, leaving
us in no man`s land with no active weather. The system to our
north will provide us with cyclonic flow/northwest flow aloft,
but with anti-cyclonic low level flow, moisture will be very
shallow with no low level lift, hence it will be a dry day in
spite of lingering cloudiness. Meanwhile the system to our south
is responsible for a broad area of high clouds, which will
depart south and east of Vermont by around noon, such that
portions of our region, especially the Upper Valley and southern
Champlain Valley, may become sunny this afternoon. With weak
cold air advection during day from the northwest, generally
northern New York will be a little colder relative to normal
than Vermont today, but all and all a seasonable day is on tap
yet again with temperatures in the 30s and 40s for highs.

Tonight temperatures will fall off pretty quickly with light winds
where skies clear out, but should level off and/or rise as the next
batch of clouds overspreads the region from the west overnight. Mid-
level clouds will eventually lower, largely coinciding with the
onset of light snow tomorrow morning as the column saturates.
See short-term section of AFD for more on the precipitation
event.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 141 AM EST Saturday...Have used light snow wording in the
forecast given a broad area of weak ascent out ahead of a minor
low pressure system on Sunday. Most modeled radar simulations
show largely under 20dbZ echoes, with perhaps a period of
slightly heavier precipitation towards evening as the low
crosses our area. The snow production zone will be pretty high
up initially (roughly 700-600 millibars), and lower a bit with
time, leading to seasonably average snow ratios, about 12-14:1.
Given light precipitation rates, in which maximum snowfall rates
will be only about 0.25"/hour and mostly 0.1"/hour, and light
winds aloft, expect a snow globe type of appearance to the
snowfall. Additionally, wet- bulb temperatures in lowest
elevations could climb above freezing at the surface, limiting
accumulations to mainly elevated surfaces, especially during the
daytime hours. A light southeasterly wind will help maintain
slightly cooler air east of the Green Mountains, where snow will
have no trouble accumulating when precipitation rates are
sufficient from time to time during the afternoon and especially
evening hours.

Also nudged hourly temperatures closer to dynamical guidance and
away from statistical guidance, with an assumption that steady,
light precipitation outweighs diurnal warming given weak warm
air advection ahead of the incoming trough. Regardless, with 850
millibar temperatures near or below -6 Celsius and moist
adiabatic lapse rates, snow should be the precipitation type
even in instances where the air temperature is as high as 37
degrees. With marginal temperatures and slight warming during
the day ahead of the trough, accumulations will be near zero in
the Champlain Valley, and most of the St. Lawrence Valley,
except if precipitation rates become sufficiently heavy. Note
timing of thicker clouds spreading in from the west will favor
accumulations in northern New York over Vermont; a later
arrival, for instance, of steady light snow in Vermont would
support slightly warmer conditions before precipitation begins.
We also increased precipitation chances generally during the
evening, as deterministic guidance shows some surface
convergence and continued deep moisture present through the
first half of the night. Thereafter as the trough pulls away,
any lingering snow will become more confined to the mountains.
While 925-850 millibar winds will increase out of the west and
become more northwesterly with time, magnitudes will still be
light enough to limit upslope snow. Otherwise favorable
moisture/wind will lead to minor accumulations in the northern
Green Mountains Sunday night into Monday morning. Monday
areawide will trend dry/less cloudy. Temperatures will remain
seasonably cold, but with some sunshine high temperatures should
be closer those on Saturday, ranging from the mid 30s to mid
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1257 AM EST Saturday...A mid-week warming trend will highlight
the long-term forecast period. Wx starts quiet Monday night with
strong surface high pressure in place and low temperatures generally
in the 20s. As high pressure departs into the Gulf of Maine, low-to-
mid level flow becomes swly with a shortwave trough and warm front
approaching from the Ohio Valley quickly on Tuesday. Will see
increasing clouds with widespread rain showers expected later in the
day Tuesday into the first half of Tuesday night. A quarter to third
of an inch of rain is possible based on model consensus. Following
passage of the warm front, Wednesday will be quite mild with high
temperatures expected in the upper 40s to lower 50s. If we reach 50F
at BTV, it will be the first 50 degree day since November 8th. Given
low sun angle and low-level moisture profiles, should see
considerable low cloud cover lingering along with potential for
brief rain showers. Pattern remains increasingly uncertain from
Wednesday night through Thanksgiving Day. A deep, vertically stacked
low pressure system is expected across the Great Lakes region
Wednesday night, with an approaching occluded front across NY.
Should see some additional rainfall with this boundary sometime
Wednesday night into Thanksgiving Day. Vertical temperature profiles
should gradually cool on Thanksgiving Day, and precipitation may end
as snow showers, especially across the northern Adirondacks and the
higher elevations of northern Vermont. Cold pool aloft supports
additional snow showers on Friday, especially across the northern
Adirondacks and the Green Mtns. Significant travel concerns aren`t
currently anticipated, but timing uncertainty of any snow showers
(and possible light snow accumulations) following the occluded front
will need to be monitored. We continue to ask that you please follow
the latest forecasts, especially if you have any travel plans.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Periods of MVFR ceilings remain possible
this morning associated with a weak cold front settling sewd
across northern NY and Vermont. Winds are light and variable
around 12Z, but will gradually become NW 5-9kts later this
morning and persist nwly thru the afternoon hours. For the
afternoon period, conditions mostly trend VFR except for
lingering MVFR ceilings at SLK/EFK/MPV. No significant aviation
wx concerns for the overnight period with VFR cloudiness and
winds becoming light and variable.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Banacos
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV