


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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330 FXUS61 KBTV 161140 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 740 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Brisk northerly flow will continue today as the region stays sandwiched between high pressure to the west and a low pressure system slow to depart to our east. As lower humidity coincides with gustier winds during the daytime hours, fire weather concerns will increase. A period of lighter winds and moderating temperatures Friday into Saturday will be followed by sharp warming and south winds on Sunday ahead of our next chance for widespread rain by Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 213 AM EDT Thursday...Gusty northerly winds will be the main weather concern today, having impacts on both Lake Champlain and fire weather concerns. (See marine and fire weather sections below.) Skies will be mostly sunny today, with brisk northerly flow in place. A Special Weather Statement has been issued for the central/southern portions of our region coinciding with this risk of frequent wind gusts above 25 MPH. Pressure gradient will relax enough overnight for some frost formation. Have issued frost advisory for the Champlain valley, though widespread frost is anticipated across the region as minimum temperatures dip into the lower 20s to lower 30s, warmest along Lake Champlain. Some areas may be cold enough for freeze warning, but did not have the confidence for this at this time. Maximum temperatures today will reach the upper 40s to mid 50s, then a bit warmer on Friday with highs ranging from low 50s to mid 50s. Friday will not be as windy as today with gradient relaxing as low moves further off the New England coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 213 AM EDT Thursday...A large upper level ridge will build over the region Friday night into Saturday. Flow will become southerly as the ridge builds aloft and also at the surface. Temperatures Friday night dip into the mid 20s to lower 30s with frost headlines possible once again. Warming trend on Saturday with warm southerly flow in place will bring maximum temperatures up to the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 213 AM EDT Thursday...A pattern change from the persistent dryness looks increasingly likely heading into the next week. High pressure will continue to edge eastward Saturday night as winds shift to the south/southwest. A long wave trough digging into the Great Lakes looks to become more amplified as meridional flow becomes accelerated under a developing 250mb jet. Amplification should lead to a strengthening low pressure system following the departing ridge with a developing associated low level jet. Southerly winds will be breezy to gusty Sunday night ahead of the precipitation corridor, especially in the Champlain Valley. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph on Lake Champlain, with 20 to 25 mph gusts in the surrounding valley locations and ridge tops. Southerly flow will also increase the moisture advection from the Gulf and Atlantic favoring good chances for precipitation heading into Sunday. When precipitation begins across northern New York will be dependent on how long the ridging takes to depart the region. All in all, rainfall should increase from west to east, from northern New York to Vermont, over the course of Sunday into Monday. Best chances for precipitation (70-80%) will be early Monday morning across northern New York. Southern stream energy may be able to provide enough energy for an isolated embedded rumble of thunder in the St. Lawrence Valley, although CAPE profiles are generally shallow. The deepening system will occlude and pull to the northeast Tuesday afternoon with brief ridging into Wednesday morning. Good ensemble consensus points to a continued period of precipitation chances through the remainder of the week with another amplified long wave trough. Focus of precipitation in the extended period may be directed more southeast to northwest dependent on how far south southern stream energy dips with each system, and whether the subsequent fronts catch up and can pull offshore moisture back over the region. Unlike recent events which have seen dry air limit precipitation amounts, the leading system should be able to erode any dry air for the secondary system by mid week for good chances at beneficial rainfall (50-60%). && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 12Z Friday...High confidence in VFR conditions at all terminals through the remainder of the TAF period. The overnight inversion has begun to break with northerly winds increasing at EFK/MPV/BTV. Winds will eventually increase at all terminals throughout the day from a tightening pressure gradient ahead of approaching high pressure. Gusts 25 to 30 mph will be likely at BTV/PBG/RUT, with 15 to 25 mph gusts at MSS/MPV/SLK/EFK. Scattered ceilings at RUT/SLK will linger for the next hour or so around 3000 ft agl, before mixing should increase ceilings above MVFR thresholds for the rest of the day. Winds tonight should relax and weaken under an inversion as winds decouple and become terrain driven with skies clearing. Outlook... Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Patchy frost. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather concerns will be heightened with maximum northerly wind gusts up to around 30 mph in parts of Vermont. With only light rain recently, fuels remain dry. While relative humidity values will only be 30-40%, fire weather concerns and fire spread will be heightened with the forecasted near critical wind gusts. Wetting rain from a low pressure system passing from the Great Lakes northward into Canada will overspread the area by Sunday evening which will mitigate the fire weather concerns heading into next week. Breezy southerly winds are expected ahead of this rain on Sunday, especially in the Champlain valley. Fire weather concerns will decrease with the wetting rain Sunday evening. && .MARINE... A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Lake Champlain through this evening. Northerly winds are leading to channeling effects on Lake Champlain enhancing wind and wave conditions. Winds on the broad lake are currently sustained 20 to 25 knots with occasional gusts as high as 30 knots. Winds in the northern and southern portions of the lake are not as gusty, but winds are still sustained around 20 knots with potential gusts up to 25 knots. Waves will be generally 2 to 4 ft. Winds should generally weaken this evening with occasional gusts to 25 knots still possible later into this evening. && .EQUIPMENT... KTYX has gone down unexpectedly, and will call technicians in the morning to diagnose and hopefully fix the issue. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Friday for VTZ001-002-005-009. NY...Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Friday for NYZ028-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Danzig AVIATION...Danzig FIRE WEATHER...Neiles MARINE...Neiles EQUIPMENT...Neiles