097
FXUS61 KBUF 151816
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
216 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler temperatures and dry weather expected through the end of the
work week. An approaching system will bring a warm-up and the next
chance for rain over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cool, northerly flow is expected across the region through
Thursday. Current satellite imagery shows decreasing clouds across
the forecast area and this trend will continue as drier air works
into the forecast area through this evening. Winds will diminish
tonight, but stay elevated near the lakeshores and southeast of Lake
Ontario. A minor uptick in low-level moisture may support lake
effect clouds southeast of Lake Ontario late tonight into Thursday.
These two elements will keep weather slightly warmer than
surrounding locations. Minimum temperatures will range from the
upper 20s to mid 30s across interior portions of the forecast area,
to the low 40s along the lakeshores and southeast of Lake Ontario. A
Frost Advisory is in effect for inland locations in Erie,
Chautauqua, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, and Oswego counties.

The center of the surface high will approach the forecast area
Thursday. A brief period of gusty winds (up to 25 mph) is likely
east of the Genesee Valley Thursday afternoon. Mostly sunny skies
are expected with high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will move overhead Thursday night through
Friday. Cool weather with light winds and clear skies will lead to
good radiational cooling and temperatures falling into the low
to mid 30s, mid to upper 20s across the higher terrain away from
the Lakes. There is medium to high confidence of areas of frost
away from immediate lakeshores. Seasonal weather is expected
Friday, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the upper
50s to low 60s Friday.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An amplified pattern will develop for this weekend, with a large
ridge of high pressure, and its associated axis over the Great Lakes
and through the Tennessee Valley Friday night, while a deepening
trough of low pressure forms over the northern Plains. This trough
will collect both tropical Pacific moisture along with northern
Pacific moisture.

A warm front will pass northward across our region Friday night and
Saturday morning, with a few rain showers upon it. The models have
trended a little slower with the evolution of this storm system,
with a milder airmass not reaching our region till Saturday night.
Temperatures at 850 hPa of now +10 to +12C will support highs
Saturday in the 60s, with a mild night in the upper 40s to mid 50s
expected. Like-wise the slower arrival of the cold front on Sunday
will now focus the rain showers with potential thunder more towards
Sunday afternoon and evening...with a gusty southerly breeze ahead
of the precipitation aiding in pushing temperatures early into the
mid 60s to lower 70s.

A cooler airmass will follow this front for the beginning of next
week, though just how cold will be based in part upon where a closed
low forms in the northeast...of which the models still have
considerable differences. Will just leave the NBM PoPs in the
forecast for now for the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure will approach the eastern Great Lakes region
through Thursday. VFR flight conditions are expected during this
time.  Some lake clouds are possible southeast of Lake Ontario late
tonight into Thursday, and may encroach on ROC.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Friday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance for rain showers.

Saturday...Mainly VFR. Becoming VFR across WNY, MVFR/VFR east of
Lake Ontario in isolated rain showers.

Sunday...IFR/MVFR in rain showers. Isolated thunder and gusty
winds possible across WNY.

Monday...VFR/MVFR with chance of rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A northerly breeze will diminish, but remain elevated into the
evening hours. A moderate chop is possible, however conditions are
below small craft thresholds. A slight uptick in winds will
occur on Lake Ontario late tonight and may require a brief
small craft advisory, however confidence is low at this time.

Winds and waves will remain elevated through Thursday evening,
especially on Lake Ontario before the pressure gradient starts to
weaken Thursday night as the center of the high moves overhead,
bringing light winds and low wave action for the finish of the work
week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ006-
     010>013-019-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/JM