846
FXUS61 KBUF 261803
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
103 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will usher in a much colder airmass tonight
through the end of the week, with an extended period of strong wind
gusts lasting through Friday. Localized lake effect snow will
develop northeast of the lakes tonight near Buffalo and Watertown,
then move quickly south into the traditional snowbelts east and
southeast of the lakes Thursday through Friday night where locally
heavy accumulations will occur. The gusty winds will produce blowing
and drifting snow. Outside of the main lake effect areas, passing
snow showers will produce minor accumulations Thursday night through
Friday. High pressure will bring a brief respite of dry weather
Saturday before another system brings wind and mixed precipitation
by Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...

A strong surface cold front will plow east across the area this
afternoon. A narrow fine line of heavy showers along the front will
produce a brief 30-40 knot gust along the immediate frontal passage
along with a brief burst of heavy rain. The cold frontal rain will
quickly end from west to east this afternoon as a post-frontal dry
slot arrives.

WINDS...

Moderately strong surface low will move into Western Quebec tonight
through Thursday, then linger across Quebec through Friday. This
will produce an extended period of strong winds across the region.
The strongest winds northeast of Lake Erie (Niagara Frontier,
Buffalo area) will be this afternoon through tonight, with peak
gusts likely reaching 55 mph at times from the southwest.

Late tonight through Thursday night, surface winds will gradually
veer to the west, and eventually WNW. This will bring strongest
gusts to the Lake Ontario shore, with gusty winds eventually
spreading inland across the entire region. Gusts in general during
this time period will be 35-45 mph, and up to 50 mph on the lake
plains closer to the lakes.

The strong winds will result in blowing/drifting snow in lake effect
areas, although the wet/slushy nature of the snow will help to
mitigate this to some extent, especially tonight through Thursday
when surface temperatures are still relatively mild.

LAKE ERIE...

Initial lake effect development will be early this evening northeast
of the lake across Grand Island/Niagara County. The first few hours
will be rain or a rain/snow mix. This should change to mainly snow
by mid to late evening as the column continues to cool, and dynamic
and evaporative cooling helps to cool the column within the band.

The band should intensify north of Buffalo later this evening, then
move quickly south across the Metro area overnight as boundary layer
flow veers to the west. The rapid southward movement should hold
accumulations in the 2-4" range for most of the Buffalo Metro area
and Niagara Frontier. Latest high-res guidance continues to suggest
a narrow streak of 4-6" possible northeast of Buffalo. This could be
plausible if the rain/snow mix changes to all snow early enough as
the band is developing this evening.

The band of snow will be south of Buffalo by daybreak Thursday, and
should be south of the more densely populated Southtowns by early to
mid morning. From late morning Thursday through Thursday night, the
heavy snow will focus across the higher terrain inland from the
lake, including the Boston Hills, western Wyoming County, and the
ridges of the western Southern Tier. Upstream connections, synoptic
scale support, and strong boundary layer flow will allow for strong
inland reach, with significant accumulations making it all the way
to Allegany County. Snowfall rates will reach 1-2" per hour at times
Thursday through Thursday night, especially within any upstream
connections to Lake Huron.

LAKE ONTARIO...

A band of mixed lake effect rain/snow showers will develop overnight
across northern Jefferson County, and continue through most of
Thursday in this position. Surface temperatures will stay marginal
across lower elevations close to Lake Ontario through Thursday,
which may allow some rain to mix in at times. Precip type should go
to all snow farther inland and especially across the slightly higher
elevations.

Late Thursday afternoon and evening, the band will begin to settle
south and center on the Watertown to Fort Drum corridor for several
hours and intensify, with 1-2" per hour snowfall rates possible. The
band will then move south across the Tug Hill region through the
middle of the night, reaching southern Oswego County by early Friday
morning. Snowfall rates may reach 2-3" per hour, especially as it
crosses the Tug Hill Plateau.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
...ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO CONTINUE OFF BOTH LAKES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...

Key Take Aways...

-Accumulating lake snow will focus east and southeast of Lake Erie
through Friday through the first half of Friday night.

-Lake effect snows off Lake Ontario will become focused southeast of
the lake through Friday night.

-Winds will remain gusty in the 25 to 35 mph range Friday which may
produce some blowing and drifting of snow, reducing visibilities.

Synopsis...

A broad and deep upper-level trough will be found across the eastern
Great Lakes region through Friday, with a cold cyclonic flow
supporting accumulating lake effect snows through Friday night.

Winds, while weaker than what is expected for Thursday into the
early hours of Friday morning will remain strong enough for some
blowing and drifting of snow. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph will be
possible for much of the day on Friday before weakening later in the
afternoon and through the evening. The strongest winds are expected
closer to the lakes and over the higher terrain.

Off Lake Erie...

Lake effect snow will continue southeast of Lake Erie through Friday
evening with northwest winds over the lake. Upstream connections to
Lakes Huron & Superior will provide for optimal conditions for lake
effect snow to remain organized into the evening on Friday. Lake
effect snow will start to diminish Friday evening as a ridging
increases and synoptic moisture decreases. Snowfall for Friday into
Friday evening of around 4 to 8 inches can be expected with some
localized higher amounts possible. Higher amounts will be found
over the higher terrain where the lake band remains in place the
longest. These greater amounts can generally be expected along the
Chautauqua Ridge and higher terrain into S. Erie and NW Cattaraugus
counties. The lower range of the snowfall can be expected farther
inland from the lake and over the lower elevations. Storm totals for
these areas will reach 12 to 22 inches across the higher
terrain closer to Lake Erie, and snowfall amounts dropping of to
the 8 to 12 inch range farther inland from the lake and over
the lower elevations.

Off Lake Ontario...

Lake effect snows will be ongoing off Lake Ontario from Thursday
night, but will shift southeast of Lake Ontario as flow veers to the
west then eventually northwest by Friday morning. By early Friday
morning, the band should be found over Oswego county and fairly
intense as it ties into upstream connections with snowfall rates
potentially exceeding 2+"/hr for a time. The band will then settle
across Wayne and N. Cayuga later Friday morning, with the potential
for some movement into Oswego Co. at times. After that...the band
will eventually weaken Friday night as moisture begins to deplete
and ridging builds into the region.

Storm totals of 12 to 22 inches are expected across the higher
terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and 8 to 12 inches for the
western foothills of the Adirondacks. Marginal temperatures will
likely keep accumulations much lower for the low elevations of
Jefferson County close to Lake Ontario and the Saint Lawrence
River, perhaps only a few slushy inches. Later in the event
southeast of Lake Ontario, around 10 to 14 inches is possible
for portions of eastern Wayne, northern Cayuga, and southern
Oswego counties, where the lake band will become the most
organized southeast of the lake.

Saturday will feature mainly dry weather with any lingering lakes
snow southeast of the lakes ending through the morning. Snowfall
amounts southeast of the lakes should be limited to a coating to an
inch for Saturday morning.

Temperatures for both Friday and Saturday should range from the
upper 20s over the higher terrain to the mid 30s for the lower
elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
After a brief break in the lake effect snow southeast of the lakes,
the potential for snow will increase from west to east through
Saturday night as an area of low pressure tracks closer to the
region.

The area of low pressure will track through the central Great Lakes
and to southern Ontario on Sunday. The system will then track across
Quebec on Monday. This system will bring a brief warm up as it
passes northwest of the area, with snow changing to rain for the
lower elevations and a mixture of rain/snow for the higher terrain
during the day on Sunday. The widespread synoptic rain/snow will taper
off Sunday night, and transition to lake enhanced/effect snow into
Monday morning southeast of the lakes. Snow showers off the lakes
will taper off through the afternoon on Monday, providing a brief
break in the active stretch.

Tuesday and beyond...all indications are it will turn somewhat
colder with a chance of some snow as a southern stream system passes
to our south. An even colder airmass may visit the Lower Lakes late
in the week but that is way to far out to have any reasonable
confidence. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A strong cold front will plow east across the area this afternoon,
producing a brief 1-2 hour period of moderate rain showers and
reduced CIGS/VSBY moving quickly west to east across the area.
Southwest winds will quickly increase northeast of Lake Erie behind
the front, with gusts in the 30-40 knot range this afternoon. The
gusty winds will gradually spread east along the Lake Ontario shore
later today and tonight, and also inland away from the lakeshores.
In general, gusts will run 30-40 knots through Thursday, but winds
northeast of Lake Erie (including KBUF and KIAG) may reach 45+ knots
for a time tonight. The strong winds will produce blowing and
drifting snow in lake effect areas, although the slushy/wet nature
of the snow will help to mitigate this to some extent.

Lake effect will begin to develop northeast of the lakes this
evening. A band of lake effect rain/snow will develop near KIAG by
early to mid evening, then become all snow and move southeast across
KBUF overnight, clearing well south of KBUF by the busy early
morning push. This band may bring a few hours of moderate snow and
LIFR to KIAG and KBUF through the middle of the night. Thursday,
lake effect snow will focus across the higher terrain east of Lake
Erie and well south of KBUF, with JHW being most heavily impacted.

Off Lake Ontario, a band of mixed rain/snow will develop near or
north of KART overnight and continue through most of Thursday with
local IFR/LIFR conditions. Temperatures remain marginal at KART
through much of the day, which may allow rain to mix in at times.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers. Heavier lake effect
snow with IFR/LIFR southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Very
windy.

Saturday...Lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes with
local MVFR/IFR early, improving to VFR in the afternoon.

Sunday...MVFR with a rain/wet snow mix. Very windy.

Monday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR in limited lake effect snow east of
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong low pressure will move slowly east across Quebec over the
next few days, producing an extended period of gales on Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario. Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions will be
found on the Niagara River and Saint Lawrence River. Winds will
finally diminish below gales Friday night, then quickly drop off
Saturday as high pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes.

Another strong low pressure system is forecast to move across the
central Great Lakes Sunday. This may bring another round of gales to
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Sunday through Sunday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A strong cold front will cross Lake Erie early this afternoon. A
southwest flow behind the front will rapidly increase, with
southwest gales causing lake levels to rise. A Lakeshore Flood
Advisory is in effect on Lake Erie for a seiche, of which
should peak this evening, with subsequent rises continuing
through Thursday morning. Levels may approach 7 to 7.5 feet,
with lower confidence that warning criteria of 8 feet at Buffalo
is reached due to current lake levels being quite low (under 2
feet). Lake levels this high can still cause minor lakeshore
flooding impacts.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for NYZ001-002-010>012-019-
     085.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Thursday for NYZ001-002.
     Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for NYZ003>005.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday
     for NYZ004-005.
     Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday for
     NYZ006-007.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 4 PM Thursday to 7 AM EST
     Saturday for NYZ006.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST
     Saturday for NYZ007-008-012-019-020-085.
     Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for NYZ010-
     019-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Thursday for NYZ010-011.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 7 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST
     Saturday for NYZ021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Friday for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Friday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Friday for
         LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 PM
         EST Thursday for SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Thomas/TMA