Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
371 FXUS61 KBUF 141051 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 651 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A few spotty showers will continue to be possible across the North Country through next few hours this morning. Surface high pressure will then spread into the region today and remain overhead through the first half of the week. This being said, dry weather will persist and allow for above normal temperatures to return. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A longwave trough centered over the Northeast will exit into Atlantic today, allowing for a ridge to build east across the Great Lakes. As a result, spotty showers associated with the exiting trough will continue this morning across the North Country. Surface high pressure over northern Ontario will drop southeast across the Great Lakes today, before setting up residency across the Northeast by Monday. As a result, expect bountiful amounts of dry weather today and tonight. Lingering moisture across the river valleys of the Southern Tier and Black river will support some fog to develop tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Heights rise through the period as surface high pressure remains anchored across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast. This will ensure fair, dry weather through the period. This will also support a warming trend with most daytime temperatures reaching summer-like readings in the 80s by Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Closed low over the Carolinas/Virginia to start the period will continue to weaken, eventually becoming an open wave by Thursday as it moves northeast just off the southern New England coast with high pressure over our area acting to deflect whatever is left of the low to our southeast. This should keep dry weather intact through the first half of the period, with any shower activity approaching areas to our southeast out of western and northcentral NY through Thursday. As the upper trough departs, surface high pressure remains in place Friday, while the axis of the upper level ridge that has been parked just to our west for the better part of the week progresses eastward into the lower Great Lakes. These features should keep at least mainly dry weather intact through the end of the work week. Confidence lowers considerably by the tail end of the period with medium range guidance showing large discrepancies in the placement of large scale features and thus overall pattern evolution. NBM has some slight chance PoPs painted in across the area by Friday night and Saturday, which looks reasonable at this point with temperatures trending more toward average. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The axis of an upper level trough over New England will continue to pass into the Atlantic Ocean this morning, supporting a few spotty showers and cloud cover over the North Country. This being said some localized MVFR ceilings will be possible across the North Country, though this will likely stay out KART. Meanwhile across western New York skies are clear, supporting ample radiational cooling and fog to develop across the the river valley of the Southern Tier, impacting KJHW bringing visibilities down to IFR at times. Fog will then dissipate an hour or two after sunrise. Surface high pressure will then spread south into the lower Great Lakes today supporting dry weather, clear skies, and VFR conditions to prevail. Clear skies tonight will support ample radiational cooling and fog to develop. Outlook... Monday through Thursday...Mainly VFR overnight valley fog across the western Southern Tier will be possible. && .MARINE... Light breezes and minimal wave action expected on the lakes today as high pressure builds south into the region behind a weak passing cold front. A period of persistent northeasterly winds will develop tonight through Tuesday night as the center of the sfc high slowly migrates across southern Quebec to New England. This may result in a bit more chop on the waters, especially along the western end of Lake Ontario and the Chautauqua County shoreline, though in general SCA conditions are not expected through the week. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EAJ NEAR TERM...EAJ SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...EAJ MARINE...EAJ/PP