283
FXUS61 KBUF 170138
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
938 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable and dry weather will continue through Friday. Following a
mainly quiet start to the weekend, active weather will arrive as two
slow-moving systems bring the potential for bouts of beneficial
rainfall along with breezy to windy conditions for the later half of
the weekend through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will gradually slide east across the lower
Great Lakes and into New England through Friday night, supporting
mainly clear skies tonight through the first half of Friday, with
winds remaining light. Clouds will start to thicken from west to
east Friday afternoon ahead of an approaching warm front. Efficient
radiational cooling tonight will support temperatures to fall
quickly with lows bottoming out in the mid and upper 20s to low 30s
across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and eastern Lake
Ontario region. Elsewhere, temperatures will range in the low to mid
30s, with some upper 30s right along the immediate lakeshores. A
Frost Advisory remains in effect for all areas where the growing
season has not officially ended. Highs will range through the 50s on
Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Elongated surface high pressure overhead of the region and Northeast
Friday night through Saturday will give way to the next weather
system. As this system tracks northeast across the Upper Great
Lakes, its warm front will push north across the central and lower
Great Lakes, though remain north of the forecast area Friday night
through Saturday. While the track remains north of the area, a few
stray showers can`t be ruled out across western New York Friday
night through Saturday morning.

Meanwhile, the aforementioned surface low, will drag its potent cold
front across the central United States Saturday and Saturday night.
As the trough axis sweeps across the front, a secondary low will
form along the front, near/over southern Lake Michigan Saturday
night. As this secondary low strengthens, it will continue to
progress northeastward into southern Ontario and Quebec. With the
passage of the low to the northwest of the region, expect widespread
rain showers/rain to expand eastward throughout the day on Sunday.
Along with the rain, some rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out
Sunday afternoon there will be some, though limited amount of shear
with the prefrontal trough. Rainfall may be heavy at times as a
plume of moisture from the Gulf advects into the region. Expect
rainfall amounts of up to an inch possible Sunday and Sunday night.

Aside from the rainfall, should note that this system will also
bring some gusty winds to the region. While the track of the low,
this model run continues to track further northwest of the area,
supporting lower winds, a slight shift eastward would bring brisker
winds. How much the system weakens during the occlusion process,
will also play a monumental role on how blustery of a day it will be
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As the low exits northeast, a tertiary surface low will develop
either overhead of the region or over Pennsylvania Sunday night and
into Monday. Overall, cool cyclonic flow will support lingering
showers to persist for the start of the work week. Some of these
showers, especially east of the lakes Monday will allow for a lake
response.

Brief ridging surface and aloft will spread across the region Monday
night through Tuesday morning, supporting a very brief timeframe of
dry weather.

The next system, will slide east across the Great Lakes Tuesday
through Wednesday, supporting chances for more widespread rain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure over the lower Great Lakes tonight will drift slowly
east across New York State through late Friday. This feature will
maintain widespread VFR flight conditions through the TAF period.
Mid and and upper level decks will gradually thicken and lower from
west to east across western NY ahead of an approaching warm front
through the second half of Friday.

Outlook...

Friday night...VFR/isolated MVFR with a chance for rain showers.

Saturday...Mainly VFR. Slight Chance of rain showers.

Sunday...IFR/MVFR in rain showers. Isolated thunder and gusty
winds possible across WNY.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with chance of rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves will continue to relax tonight as the center of high
pressure moves overhead, with light winds and low wave action for
the finish of the work week.

A gentle to moderate,  mainly offshore southerly flow will develop
on Saturday, with winds and waves remaining below headline criteria.
Winds will further strengthen Saturday night and especially Sunday
as the pressure gradient tightens in response to a strengthening
area of low pressure moving from the lower Ohio Valley northeast
through the central Great Lakes Sunday, with mainly fresh to
strong varying southerly through westerly breezes expected to
persist through at least mid week. This will lead to the
potential for Small Craft headlines through much of the Sunday
through Wednesday timeframe.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for NYZ001>006-
     010>014-019-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...EAJ/JM
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM