088
FXUS61 KBUF 122215
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
615 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will near the region on Sunday with widespread showers
and thunderstorms, some of which could produce strong gusty winds
and locally heavy rainfall. Drier weather returns Monday, with
somewhat cooler temperatures and less humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Have issued a quick update to account for the widely scattered
convection that has fired during the last 45 minutes across far
western New York...with this focused along a low-level convergence
axis stretching from Bradford PA to near Medina in Orleans county.
Have inserted some lower-end chance PoPs to cover this for the next
couple of hours...with this activity expected to quickly wane with
sunset.

Quite muggy tonight ahead of an approaching trough and cold
front. There will be a continued chance of showers or a
thunderstorm. Overnight loW temperatures not dropping far from
the lower 70s.

Another warm and humid day expected Sunday, but it does not look
quite as hot as this afternoon. Some of the warmest heat indices
could still get into the lower 90s along the lake plains/Genesee
Valley/northern Finger Lakes. All this heat and humidity will be
ahead of an approaching cold front slowly pushing into the region,
resulting in increasing cover coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
Precipitable water values rising to 2+" will bring the risk of
locally heavy rainfall. Flooding concerns will certainly be elevated
during this time, especially from slower moving thunderstorms. The
greatest threat will be from the interior Southern Tier through the
Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario.

Main surface cold front doesn`t make it through the area until
Sunday night with convection ending fairly quickly behind the
passage of the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure behind a cold front will bring fair weather,
and lowering dewpoints Monday and Tuesday.

As this surface high shifts eastward Wednesday a southernly return
flow of very warm and humid air will bring the return of
uncomfortable conditions (heat index values upper 80s to lower 90s)
with a small chance for an afternoon thunderstorm.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A humid (PWATS 1.75") and a very warm airmass (surface temperatures
in the 80s) Thursday will be accompanied with showers and
thunderstorms upon a warm front...with additional lift for storm
development supported by the passage of a mid level shortwave
trough.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue Thursday night
through Friday with the approach and passage of a cold front.

Uncertainty increases to start next weekend as a few 12Z models
depict a slower passage to this cold front with a surface wave upon
which would linger showers and thunderstorms into the start of next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR through tonight. Isolated showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon into the early evening, especially from the Finger
Lakes eastward. Any heavier shower or thunderstorm will have
the possibility of producing a localized brief period of IFR or
below conditions, but confidence low that any activity will
reach a TAF site.

Outlook...

Sunday and Sunday night...Showers and thunderstorms likely with
restrictions possible.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of a shower or
thunderstorm.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and minimal wave action through tonight. A slow moving
cold front will bring increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms Sunday through Sunday night. Winds pick up a bit ahead
and with the front, but remain well below any headline
criteria.

Winds remain fairly light Sunday night behind the front through
Tuesday as high pressure builds in across the lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ001>006-010-
     011-013-014.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...AR/TMA
MARINE...AR/TMA