Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
348 FXUS61 KBUF 191754 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1254 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Fair weather will remain across our region through tomorrow, with variable cloudiness, before a storm system brings light rain to our region late Thursday night and through the day Friday. Progressively mild air will flow ahead of this storm system before a cold front crosses the area Friday afternoon and evening sending temperatures back to just below normal. An area of high pressure will then build across the region this weekend with mainly dry weather and seasonable temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure will cross our region this period ensuring fair weather will continue. There will be a fair amount of cloudiness, first from stubborn lake clouds along the southern Lake Ontario shoreline, and to the east a deck of stratus across the North Country as moisture remains trapped beneath a subsidence inversion. Weak warm air advection in the lower atmosphere, along with a subtle moisture bearing shortwave in a zonal flow will increase mid and high level cloudiness tonight. This will minimize the radiational cooling conditions tonight, save for portions of the North Country where early evening clearing will allow for temperatures to drop back into the teens early, before increasing later tonight. Surface high pressure will then slip to the east tomorrow, with a light southerly flow across our region. There will likely be a brief break in the clouds, behind the departing warm air advection clouds and incoming storm system tomorrow to allow for a period of sunshine. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A northern jet shortwave diving down a southern Hudson Bay closed low will swing a trough across southern Canada, clipping the Great Lakes region. A cold front, from an area of low pressure near southern Hudson Bay, will cross our region Friday afternoon and evening. Overall synoptic moisture is not great with this system, but this front will bring chances for rain showers, with the greatest chances east of Lake Ontario which will lie closer to the better lift associated with the trough to the north. While precipitation with the northern branch feature will taper off Friday night, a southern branch shortwave will bring another round of rain across the Ohio Valley Friday night and into Saturday. For now, this system appears to remain just to our south, but if models continue to trend northward with this feature...light rain will become possible for the southern portions of our region. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will drop across our region Sunday and Monday with a period of mainly fair weather. There will be another shortwave passing across southern Canada Sunday night that may bring a little snow or rain to the North Country. The next region-wide system to impact us will arrive from the desert Southwest. A closed low will open up early in the week...reaching our region Tuesday and into Wednesday with mainly plain rain as daytime temperatures will run in the 40s...while overnight lows drop back into the mid to upper 30s. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The lone caveat to widespread VFR today will be just enough low- level moisture to produce a low cloud deck (025-045) along the south shore of Lake Ontario, and also across a portion of Jefferson Co. and the St. Lawrence Valley. This will at times produce MVFR CIGS at KIAG and KROC through this evening. Otherwise...a broad sfc ridge extending across the Lower Lakes will largely support VFR at area terminals through Thursday. Outlook... Thursday night through Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain showers. Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR. Monday....Mainly VFR with a chance of a shower. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure passing across the Lower Great Lakes will maintain light winds and waves on the Lakes. Winds will then gradually increase Thursday night as the pressure gradient begins to tighten between exiting high pressure to the east and a cold front approaching from the west. Winds will peak on Friday on the lower Great Lakes just ahead of the cold front with the possibility for a period of small craft headlines across the central and eastern portions of Lake Ontario Friday through Friday evening. High pressure then builds across the lower Great Lakes in the wake of the cold frontal passage with no more than some light chop at times this weekend. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Thomas NEAR TERM...Thomas SHORT TERM...Thomas LONG TERM...Thomas AVIATION...AR MARINE...Thomas