267
FXUS61 KBUF 061802
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
202 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region providing fair and dry
weather through Tuesday. A warm front will cross the region
Tuesday night through early Wednesday with some showers and a
chance of thunderstorms. Unsettled weather will then last the
rest of the week as a trough of low pressure slowly crosses the
Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Visible satellite imagery shows the low clouds have dissipated, with
just thin high cirrus filtering the afternoon sunshine. Temperatures
will continue to run a little above average, with highs mainly in
the 65-72 degree range. Light northwest flow will keep the southern
and eastern shores of Lake Ontario cooler.

Tonight high pressure will drift east from the Great Lakes into
Ontario and Quebec, maintaining dry and quiet weather across our
region. The high clouds will clear out and winds will be calm,
resulting in good radiational cooling conditions. Lows in the
low to mid 40s in most areas.

The surface high pressure ridge axis will gradually slide east
into New England, but it will keep the area rain-free during the
day Tuesday. Clouds will increase from the southwest during the
afternoon, with a small chance of a shower across the Western
Southern Tier towards sunset. Otherwise, pleasant and warm with
highs in the 70s inland. Cooler along the south shores of Lake
Ontario and Lake Erie due to a northeasterly lake breeze.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday night, a few different weak sfc lows and shortwave
troughs will traverse along a weakening occluded front that is
tracking east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by this
time. As these features track toward the region Tuesday night,
shower potential will increase from southwest to northeast
through the night across the entire forecast area. A few
embedded thunderstorms will also be possible with these showers
as there will be some instability, mainly south of I90. This
scenario is similar in some ways to the setup earlier this past
weekend with an occluded front and the models bringing in more
rain than what occurred. Models are starting to come in a little
drier overall for the Tuesday night into Wednesday time frame,
so will need to keep an eye on how the models handle things.
Showers should mostly be done by around daybreak for the western
third of the forecast area, with increasing shower potential
toward the east during the a.m. commute.

Wednesday, showers will linger through most of the morning for the
eastern Lake Ontario area before tracking east, and out of the area.
Wednesday is starting to look a little drier for most areas during
the day with WNY remaining mostly rain free and the eastern half of
the forecast area only having a few scattered showers/sprinkles
during the afternoon. A bit cooler for the day with highs in the low
60s for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario to the mid 70s for
the lower elevations south of I90.

Wednesday night, shower potential increases later in the night as an
area of low pressure develops over the mid-Mississippi Valley ahead
of a trough and tracks toward the region. Showers will track once
again from southwest to northeast through the second half of the
night. Some guidance is pushing better organized shower activity
farther south and across Pennsylvania, so will need to see how that
evolves.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The sfc low from Wednesday night will continue to strengthen and
increase in size as a trough amplifies over the central CONUS and as
a few rounds of vorticity advection move through the trough.

As the trough moves east and the main sfc low tracks ahead of it, a
mid level low will develop over the eastern Great Lakes. The
combination of the sfc & mid-level low will cause showers to cover
most of the forecast area for Thursday into Friday. Showers will
mostly taper off from west to east late Friday afternoon into the
night as the sfc low tracks east. However, some lingering showers
will be possible Saturday morning, especially east of Rochester with
a cyclonic flow lingering over the northeast. An incoming ridge for
later Saturday will eliminate any remaining showers that may exist
across the area.

Another trough dropping southeast out of Canada and across the Great
Lakes will increase the shower potential starting Saturday night,
BUT there is still very much uncertainty among the models as to
track and timing of showers associated with the system. Currently
going with chance for showers for most of Sunday, but that can
certainly change either way.

Temperatures for the long term period will generally be near normal
for most of the period, except for Friday, which still looks cooler
than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

High pressure will build across the area tonight, providing
confidence in VFR flight conditions for the 18Z TAFs. Just some high
cirrus this afternoon, which will move out of the area tonight.
Then some mid-level clouds will approach from the west lake
Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.

Friday...MVFR. Showers likely.

Saturday...Mainly VFR. A slight chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure with negligible winds and waves through
Tuesday night. Onshore winds will pick up during the afternoon hours
due to lake breeze circulations. Southwest winds will briefly pick
up on Lake Erie on Wednesday behind a warm front. Then low pressure
passing by to the south will cause easterly winds to increase
Thursday and Thursday night with a potential for low-end small craft
headlines.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel