966
FXUS61 KBUF 161030
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
530 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure over New England today will move slowly to the
Canadian Maritimes through Monday, supporting windy and colder
weather across the eastern Great Lakes. Persistent upslope snow will
bring moderate accumulations to the higher terrain east of Lake
Ontario, with moderate accumulations from lake effect snow across
the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier inland from Lake
Erie. Lake effect snow will also bring some minor accumulations
southeast of Lake Ontario including Rochester and the Finger Lakes.
Outside of these areas, only a few passing flurries with minimal
accumulation is expected through Monday. High pressure will then
build into the region with a return to mainly dry weather by the
middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Initial low pressure moving down the lower Saint Lawrence Valley
this morning will give way to secondary cyclogenesis over the Gulf of
Maine today, with the resulting strong low moving northeast across
the Canadian Maritimes this afternoon through Monday. A cyclonic
flow of colder air and wrap around moisture will set the stage for
some accumulating lake effect snow southeast of the lakes and
upslope snow east of Lake Ontario.

Off Lake Erie...

Lake effect snow will increase in coverage this morning, then
continue this afternoon through Monday. The heavier snowfall rates
and amounts will be closely tied to an upstream connection to Lake
Huron, which will oscillate back and forth several times from
central Chautauqua and southern Cattaraugus counties into NW PA.

The upstream connection combined with persistent northwest upslope
flow should support advisory accumulations for the higher terrain
inland from Lake Erie, with 4-7" in persistent bands. If the Lake
Huron band stalls in one location for an extended period of time,
localized warning amounts cannot be ruled out. Accumulations will be
highly elevation dependent, with little or no accumulation along the
Lake Erie shore (including the NYS Thruway) where surface temps will
stay above freezing through the event. Intensity and coverage of
snow will taper off by Monday afternoon as deeper moisture starts to
pull away.

Off Lake Ontario...

Lake effect rain showers early this morning from Rochester into the
northern Finger Lakes will begin to mix with snow later this
morning, with the rain/snow mix transitioning to mainly snow later
today and this evening. The most persistent snow later today through
Monday will be closely tied to an upstream connection to Georgian
Bay, which will meander back and forth a number of times through the
period, but generally focus on the Rochester area and northern
Finger Lakes region. Later Monday afternoon most of the lake effect
will move farther east towards Wayne/Cayuga counties.

Accumulations will be tricky in this area, with surface temps at
lower elevations staying at or just above freezing much of the time
and potentially limiting snowfall amounts. In general, expect a
coating to 2" in most areas from Rochester southeast into the
northern Finger Lakes. There is some potential for local amounts of
2-4"/3-5" if the Georgian Bay band stays in one location long
enough, and this would be more likely across the somewhat higher
terrain of southern Monroe and Ontario counties where surface temps
will be slightly cooler. Not enough confidence in this scenario to go
with an advisory yet, but trends will be monitored.

Upslope east of Lake Ontario...

Light synoptic rain has expanded in coverage early this morning. The
rain will mix with and change to snow this morning, first across
higher terrain, and last close to Lake Ontario. Persistent northwest
upslope flow will support periods of snow across the higher terrain
of the Tug Hill Plateau and western foothills of the Adirondacks
later this morning through Monday. There is minimal lake influence,
so this is more of a terrain driven event. Expect 4-7" total across
the higher terrain, but lower elevations including the majority of
Oswego and Jefferson counties, and the Black River Valley in Lewis
County will see minimal accumulation.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Lewis County for the
snow across the Tug Hill Plateau and western foothills of the
Adirondacks. Note, 3-6" of snow will also likely fall in the extreme
northeast corner of Oswego County (Redfield) and the extreme
southeast corner of Jefferson County (Worth), but considering the
very small areal coverage and the minimal snow amounts for the rest
of those counties, opted to leave them out of the Advisory.

Winds...

Northwest winds will gust in the 35-45 mph range today into this
evening, and then the 25-35 mph range late tonight through Monday.
Forecast BUFKIT soundings show the greatest potential for a few
gusts in the 45-50 mph range today and this evening across the ridge
tops of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, and also along the south
shore of Lake Ontario. A Wind Advisory has been issued in these
areas. The winds will result in blowing and drifting snow in areas
which receive accumulation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid-level troughing overhead of the Northeast Monday night will
continue to pull east as brief ridging crosses the Great Lakes.
Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure will be building
northeastward across the Ohio Valley bringing warming aloft and
drier air into the region. As a result, lake effect snows will
slightly lift northward and diminish due to winds synoptic winds
having a more westerly component and the introduction of the surface
high. Additionally, snows will begin to transition towards rain
during the day time hours Tuesday, with showers lingering the
longest southeast of Lake Ontario, due to the closer proximity to
the mid-level trough.

Late Tuesday/Tuesday night another wave of surface low pressure will
track across the Ohio Valley while weakening as it slides into the
mid-Atlantic Tuesday night. Ahead of this system, warm air will
advect into the region, supporting an increase in cloud cover and
some few light rain/snow showers across the Southern Tier late
Tuesday and Tuesday night with the low`s passage to the south of New
York State.

Surface high pressure will gradually shift east into New England
Wednesday, supporting mainly dry weather across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak mid-level trough exiting out of the deep longwave trough across
the southwest will support another wave of surface low pressure to
slide east across the Ohio Valley and into the mid-Atlantic
Thursday. Similar to earlier in the week, this will support the
chance for a few showers across the Southern Tier Wednesday night
into Thursday.

The aforementioned mid-level longwave trough across the southwestern
portions of the CONUS will lift northeast across the Central Plains
Friday, and into the Great Lakes this weekend. This trough will then
merge with another northern trough diving south across central
Canada and into the Great Lakes before passing east across the Great
Lakes. While this is the general idea of the upper level pattern
late in the week and into next weekend, model guidance continues to
remain diverged with exact timing and placement of the features.
Overall, expect the next surface system to slide northeast out of
the Southwest and into the Great Lakes late in the week and for the
weekend, supporting a warmer air to arrive into the region and
increased probabilities of rain Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong low pressure over New England today will move slowly to the
Canadian Maritimes through Monday. This will maintain windy
conditions across the eastern Great Lakes, with surface gusts in the
30-40 knot range today through this evening, then 25-35 knots
overnight through Monday. Expect lower end VFR/MVFR CIGS outside of
lake effect and upslope snow areas noted below.

Rain east of Lake Ontario early this morning will change to snow
through the morning, first across higher terrain and last close to
Lake Ontario. Persistent upslope flow will bring periods of snow to
the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario (Tug Hill and western
Adirondacks) with periods of IFR today through tonight. Most of this
snow will avoid KART, with just some light rain this morning, then
some very light snow later today through tonight.

Lake effect snow will increase southeast of Lake Erie near KJHW
later this morning, and continue through tonight. The heavier snow
will be tied to a narrow upstream connection to Lake Huron, which
will meander across southwest NY through the period. Expect areas of
IFR/local LIFR in snow.

Lake effect rain showers from KROC southeast into the Finger Lakes
will start to mix with snow later this morning, then transition to
mainly snow later today and tonight. An upstream connection to
Georgian Bay will focus a narrow band of more persistent snow and
IFR conditions, and this will likely impact KROC at times.

KBUF and KIAG will be mainly dry through the period, with little
more than a few passing light flurries today.

Outlook...

Monday...MVFR/local IFR with lake effect snow showers southeast of
the lakes and upslope snow showers across higher terrain east of
Lake Ontario. MVFR/VFR for the rest of the area.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with scattered light lake effect rain/wet snow
showers southeast of the lakes.

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong low pressure over New England today will move slowly to the
Canadian Maritimes through Monday. This will support a period of
gales on Lake Ontario today through this evening, with the most
persistent and longest lasting gales on the eastern half of the
lake. High end Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue on Lake
Erie with some gale force gusts at times.

Higher end Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue Monday
before winds gradually diminish from west to east Monday night
through Tuesday as the low moves off towards Labrador.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ001>006-011>014-021.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
     Monday for NYZ008.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST
     Monday for NYZ019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock