553
FXUS61 KBUF 292001
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
301 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario will continue
to dissipate into the early evening. After a brief break in the
active weather, another round of snow will move into the region
tonight, mixing with and/or changing to rain for the lower
elevations Sunday. Brief lake enhanced/effect snow is expected
Sunday evening into early Monday morning. The pattern will remain
active through the week with nearby storm systems and cold fronts
crossing the region, each bringing the potential for precipitation,
mainly in the form of snow. Temperatures will remain below normal
through most of the new week, with Sunday expected to be the warmest
with values briefly near normal levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Earlier lake snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario will continue to
slowly dissipate into the early evening as high pressure builds into
the region.

Mainly dry conditions can be found across the forecast area outside
of the light lake showers. Some breaks in the clouds will be
possible into the early evening, but clouds will start to increase
again from the southwest to the northeast ahead of the next
approaching system. Winds are weakening this afternoon into the
evening as builds into the region.

Tonight, clouds will continue to increase from the southwest as a
sfc low tracks from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the LP of Michigan
by daybreak on Sunday morning. As this system tracks northeast, its
warm front will extend out well ahead of the sfc low with snow along
and behind the frontal boundary. Snow will push into WNY a little
after midnight tonight and continue to push northeast across the
forecast area, reaching the North Country by 9Z. Weaker forcing and
downsloping will reduce some of the potential for steadier snow for
areas of the Finger Lakes and Genesee Valley. Snowfall amounts
overnight into the early morning will reach 1 to 3 inches for most
areas. Overnight lows tonight will dip down to the near 20 to near
30 range from the higher terrain to the lower elevations
respectively.

Sunday, snow will continue into the morning across much of the area,
with snow mixing with and/or changing to rain across the lower
elevations as warm air advection increase air temperature some.
Mainly all snow is expected for areas of highest terrain, especially
for the Tug Hill. The mix with/change to rain will start during the
mid morning and continue into the mid afternoon as temperatures
increase from west to east. Temperatures will then drop start to
drop during the mid afternoon across WNY as the cold front
associated with the system tracks across the area. The sfc low will
track from lower Michigan to the QC/ON border just north of Lake
Ontario by Sunday evening. As temperatures aloft cool again behind
the passing cold front, a lake response will develop, enhancing the
precipitation northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through the
afternoon and to start the evening. Rain will change to mainly snow
by the early evening on Sunday for WNY and the lake response will
transition to more of a lake effect scenario. Snow amounts of an inch
to inch and a half will be possible between the morning and early
evening on Sunday, with about half of these amounts falling before a
change over to rain and the other half falling after the change back
to snow. For the higher terrain of the Tug Hill where all snow is
expected for the entire day, an additional 2 to 5 inches is
expected. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in place for Lewis
County where the greatest potential for higher elevation snow is
expected.

Winds will start to increase tonight and Sunday with a LLJ nearing
50 knots ahead of and with the cold frontal passage. This will cause
wind gusts to 50 MPH across the Niagara Frontier, S. Erie, Wyoming
and Chautauqua counties. Winds across Chautauqua County will start
earlier with southeast downsloping winds increasing tonight shortly
after midnight. Wind Advisories have been issued for the
counties/locations above, with timing shown below in the
Watch/Warning/Advisories section. For areas east of these advisory
areas, wind gusts to 40 MPH will be possible at times, mainly from
the early afternoon into the mid-evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure that brought the active and windy weather Sunday will
be accelerating as it pulls northeast of the area into far southern
Quebec Sunday evening with winds lessening through the overnight.
With another shot of cooler air rushing in behind the cold front, an
earlier mix of lake effect rain and snow northeast of Lake Erie will
have transitioned to all snow by Sunday evening, while lake effect
rain and snow develops across the lower terrain northeast of Lake
Ontario. Otherwise, lingering synoptic moisture will bring an
additional inch or so of wet snow across the higher terrain east of
both Lakes during the evening.

The area of low pressure will pull further northeast into east-
central Quebec Sunday night, which will cause winds to quickly veer
west then northwest through the overnight. This will limit lake
effect snowfall potential greatly with little residency time over
any one area, although there will be a period of accumulating west
and northwest upslope snow across the higher terrain east of both
Lakes. The combination of transient lake effect and upslope snows
may add up to a few to several inches across the higher terrain of
far southern Erie, Chautauqua, and northern Cattaraugus
counties...with a few to several inches of lake effect/upslope snow
also possible east of Lake Ontario, mainly across the Tug Hill and
western Dacks.

A transient area of high pressure over the Ohio Valley early Monday
morning will rapidly build into the lower Great Lakes Monday morning
and into western New England by Monday evening. This will quickly
shut down and lingering snow showers across the area with dry
weather and even some breaks of sunshine expected. Winds will become
light, however with 850mb temps hovering around -12C/-13C, it will
be a chilly day with daytime highs averaging some 10-15 degrees
below average on the first day of meteorological winter.

High pressure quickly shifts east off the New England coast Monday
night, while an elongated area of low pressure moves from the west
Gulf Coast into the Southeast states. Low pressure is then forecast
to continue moving northeast to just off the Mid Atlantic coast on
Tuesday, then strengthen while moving northeast along the northeast
Atlantic coastline Tuesday night. Big question continues to be just
how close to the coast, as that will have large implications on our
weather across western and northcentral NY. Model guidance continues
to struggle with the track of this system, although consensus
continues to favor a track far enough to our south and east to spare
our area from the heavier snows, although at least some accumulation
will be possible, with the best potential for near advisory (>= 4")
amounts across our southeastern areas. Stay tuned.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Late Wednesday through Thursday morning a mid level trough will
advance east across Ontario and Quebec, with an associated cold
front crossing the eastern Great Lakes. Wednesday will start mainly
dry, outside of a limited chance of some light lake effect east of
the lakes. Later Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night, lake
induced equilibrium levels will rise with the start of cold
advection aloft and arrival of synoptic scale ascent and moisture
along the cold front. This will support expanding areas of lake
enhanced snow east/northeast of Lake Erie and Ontario. What remains
of this will move southeast of the lakes and weaken by Thursday
morning as dry air and ridging build quickly into the area. This
system is fast moving and associated lake effect will be brief, but
nonetheless may support some accumulating snow east/northeast of the
lakes.

Forecast uncertainty increases by Friday and Saturday with more
significant timing and track differences showing up in operational
and ensemble guidance. A split flow regime across North America will
bring at least the potential for a partially phased system by the
start of next weekend, but equally likely is the northern and
southern streams remaining unphased with just a weak system passing
through the Great Lakes. At the very least, expect a chance of some
light snow each day through the end of the week with passing weak
synoptic features and lake effect potential.

Temperatures will continue to run below average next week and beyond
with a longwave trough well established and re-loading several times
across central and eastern North America.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Improving flight conditions across the region today. Light to
briefly moderate snow arrives from west to east late tonight. VFR
conditions will become MVFR/IFR tonight from west to east.

Sunday, Mainly MVFR conditions expected for much of the area with
snow mixing with and/or changing to rain. IFR will be possible at
times in heavier snow showers and across the higher terrain.

Outlook...

Monday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR in limited lake effect snow east of
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. Chance of snow showers.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with some scattered snow showers possible.

Thursday...MVFR/VFR with snow showers expected.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong low pressure system is forecast to move across the central
Great Lakes Sunday. Confidence is increasing that this will bring
another round of gales to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Earlier Gale
Watches have been upgraded to Gale Warnings for both Lake Erie and
Ontario for Sunday through Sunday evening/night. Details on timing
can be found below.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for NYZ001-002-
     010>012-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday
     for NYZ008.
     Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for NYZ019.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST
         Monday for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...HSK/SW
MARINE...HSK/SW