513
FXUS61 KBUF 240731
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
231 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the eastern Great Lakes today with a
return to dry weather and partial sunshine. The next low pressure
system will bring rain by Tuesday, with a strong cold front late
Wednesday ushering in gusty winds and localized lake effect snow
east of the lakes Wednesday night through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weakening area of low pressure will continue to move east across
Quebec. This will pull favorable synoptic moisture away from the
area with diminishing lake response and upslope component east and
southeast of Lake Ontario. A ridge of high pressure will build east
across the eastern Great Lakes today, reaching the east coast by
late afternoon. Lingering lake effect and upslope clouds this
morning will clear, with sunshine then fading behind some warm
advection mid/high clouds later in the day. Surface ridge exits
out to sea tonight, but will maintain overall dry weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A leading shortwave will advance a warm frontal segment towards
and then into the Lower Lakes by Tuesday afternoon with a
period of steady widespread rain which lasts into Tuesday
evening. As the warm front advances east and northeast Tuesday
night precipitation will then become less steady with periods of
drizzle/showers likely into the day Wednesday.

Otherwise...mild conditions will be found across much of the Lower
Lakes Tuesday where mercury readings will climb into the mid-upper
40s to low 50s, a bit cooler across the North Country.

A deep nearly vertically stack cyclone found over the upper Great
Lakes Wednesday will then drive a strong cold front east into and
through the Lower Lakes. This will bring about `big` changes across
the region, not only colder but quite breezy to windy conditions
with the front then post frontal. In fact...wind gusts of 30-40 mph
will be quite common, even stronger winds may potentially develop
northeast of Lake Erie with possible gusts up to 50 mph. Again we
will be looking at mild conditons ahead of the cold front with
readings in the 50s to even near 60F in spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

A strong cold front will quickly plow east across the Lower Lakes
Wednesday evening. A much colder air mass in the wake of the front
will spill in across the region with H850 T`s plummeting to -7C to
-9C overnight. That said...environmental conditions will begin to
become favorable enough to support some measure of a lake response
first off Lake Erie and then later on off Lake Ontario as we head
into Thursday. However...at this point there still remains a fair
amount of uncertainty with this potential lake effect event at this
juncture. Just to name a few issues...lastest (12Z) guidance is
struggling with band placement over time which will impact snowfall
amounts over any given location. Also...behind the front the airmass
is fairly dry before deeper synoptic moisture wraps back into the
region on Thursday. Thats not to say we won`t see some response, it
just may not be all that organized or intense at first. As was noted
previously...long range guidance packages and ensembles still show a
period of SW to WSW flow late Wednesday night into Thursday becoming
more NW to WNW by Friday. This would imply the bands may first set
up east to northeast of the lakes before the bands correspondingly
shift southward over time.

Snowfall will not be the only issue to deal with as a decent LLJ
aloft (40-50 knots) will likely maintain brisk sfc winds too. This
will potentially create areas of blowing and drifting snow for those
impacted by the lake effect. Even with all the uncertainty...it does
looks like we will see the lake effect diminish as we head into the
weekend. However...that does not mean quite weather is on the
horizon. As quickly as the lake effect diminishes the next system
will begin to draw near the Lower Lakes as early as late Saturday
and then last into the day Sunday. This system may bring a mixed bag
of precipitation initially before warming enough to change to all
rain.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Northwest flow lake clouds will remain early this morning with mixed
rain/snow showers diminishing east of Lake Ontario. Ceilings for
the most part will be low end VFR, with some limited coverage
of MVFR across the higher terrain. There is a small window
towards sunrise where a few locations across the Southern Tier
could see patchy radiational fog with MVFR fog possible at KJHW,
but confidence in this occurring is low.

High pressure will build east across the eastern Great Lakes today
with VFR and lighter winds. Higher level cloud cover starts to move
in during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday...MVFR/IFR with rain.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with showers. Turning very windy late.

Thursday through Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.
Heavier lake effect snow with IFR/LIFR east of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario. Very windy.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves will subside from west to east this morning as low
pressure to our north exits and high pressure builds into the
eastern Great Lakes.

Strong low pressure will move from the upper Great Lakes Wednesday
to Quebec by late Thursday, with a strong cold front plowing through
the lower Great Lakes late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Westerly
winds will quickly increase along and behind the cold front, with an
extended period of gales likely on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario from
late Wednesday through Thursday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through Saturday
     morning for NYZ006>008.
     Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday
     evening for NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
         LEZ040-041.
         Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday
         night for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this
         morning for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA