070
FXUS61 KBUF 171044
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
544 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Deep low pressure will continue to spin over the Canadian Maritimes
today through tonight, allowing modest lake effect snow to continue
southeast of the lakes along with some lingering upslope snow across
the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. Accumulations will be
limited, but may still produce slick travel in a few locations
through Tuesday morning. High pressure will then build east across
the Great Lakes region through midweek, bringing an end to lake
effect along with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Deep low pressure will continue to spin over the Canadian Maritimes
today through tonight, maintaining chilly cyclonic flow across the
eastern Great Lakes. Limited lake effect snow will continue today
through tonight southeast of the lakes with modest additional
accumulations. Upslope snow across the higher terrain east of Lake
Ontario will linger this morning before gradually fading away this
afternoon.

Off Lake Erie...

Lake effect snow showers will continue today through tonight, with
the greatest coverage and intensity this morning before gradually
weakening later today through tonight. The heaviest bands of snow
showers will be tied to the upstream connection to Lake Huron, which
is currently disjointed into at least 3 separate bands. In general,
the upstream connection to Lake Huron is forecast to swing southwest
through the early morning hours into NW PA and the southwest corner
of Chautauqua County, then swing back to the northeast across
Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties this afternoon before gradually
fading away to flurries and light snow showers tonight.

The oscillating nature of the Lake Huron connection will keep
additional accumulations limited, with 1-3" today and another spotty
inch or so tonight across the higher terrain of Chautauqua and
Cattaraugus counties. The immediate lakeshore including the NYS
Thruway will continue to see little or no accumulation with warmer
surface temps close to the lake.

Off Lake Ontario...

Lake effect snow showers are disorganized early this morning, with
the upstream Georgian Bay connection looking sheared into multiple
bands on satellite imagery. Expect light snow showers to continue
through this morning from the Rochester area east across Wayne
County and southeast into the Finger Lakes, with spotty minor
coating to an inch accumulations through the day.

Boundary layer flow is forecast to back to a more favorable
direction to achieve a more dominant single band of snow late today
through tonight, focusing on eastern Wayne and northern Cayuga
counties and then into the Syracuse area. High-res CAMS are not in
particularly good agreement with the placement or intensity of this
band, but there continues to be a good signal for accumulating snow
in this area in the past few runs of the reliable Canadian Regional
GEM.

Expect a narrow band of 2-5" of accumulation late today through
Tuesday morning from far eastern Wayne County across northern Cayuga
County, especially just inland from the modifying influence of the
lake. With this in mind, added a Winter Weather Advisory from late
this afternoon through Tuesday morning for Wayne and northern Cayuga
counties.

Upslope east of Lake Ontario...

Persistent northwest upslope flow will continue to support light
snow across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and western
foothills of the Adirondacks today. Additional accumulations will be
in the 1-2" range, with most of that falling this morning. This
continues to be highly dependent on elevation, with the lower
elevations of Jefferson and Oswego counties and the Black River
Valley seeing minimal accumulation. The upslope snow will taper off
to flurries later today and this evening before ending overnight.

Winds...

Northwest winds will gust in the 25-35 mph today, with some limited
blowing snow in open areas where fresh snow is on the ground. Winds
will diminish after sunset this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave trough over the Plains Tuesday will slide east across
the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic region Tuesday night,
helping to usher the general troughing pattern east into the
northern Atlantic. With the exiting trough, ongoing lake effect snow
southeast of Lake Ontario Tuesday morning will peter out by midday
as surface high pressure builds overhead, introducing warmer air
aloft and drier air. Meanwhile, as the shortwave trough passes into
the Mid-Atlantic, a weak surface wave will weaken as it encounters
the aforementioned high. This wave will pass by to the south of the
region, introducing a low chance of rain or higher elevation snow
will work into the far western Southern Tier Tuesday evening and
night.

Surface high pressure will then dominate overhead Wednesday and
Wednesday night supporting fair weather across the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid-level zonal flow over the Great Lakes Thursday will move off
into the Atlantic late in the week. A trough will then pass across
the Great Lakes region Friday and through New England Saturday.
Model guidance then diverges with the mid-level flow for late in the
weekend, with either a ridge sliding overhead or a trough remaining
across the Northeast. This being said, the mean 500mb pattern
continues to depict zonal flow across the lower CONUS for the end of
the weekend.

In the wake of the surface high, maritime tropical air will move
northward across the region ahead of a cold frontal passage Thursday
night through Friday. Confidence is increasing with rain moving into
the forecast area with unsettled weather lasting through the
remainder of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure will continue to spin over the Canadian Maritimes today
through tonight, maintaining gusty winds and limited lake effect
snow southeast of the lakes. Outside of lake effect areas, expect
mainly VFR conditions today through tonight. Winds will continue to
gust in the 20-30 knot range today before diminishing tonight.

Off Lake Erie, bands of lake effect snow will continue to meander
across the western Southern Tier today through tonight with local
MVFR/IFR conditions. The snow will gradually diminish in coverage
and intensity overnight before ending Tuesday morning. Off Lake
Ontario, light snow showers will continue today from near KROC east
and southeast into the Finger Lakes with local MVFR/IFR conditions
at times. Tonight, lake effect snow should focus well east of KROC
from eastern Wayne County into the KSYR area with local IFR. This
band of snow will continue through Tuesday morning in this area
before weakening.

East of Lake Ontario, upslope snow will continue to produce local
IFR this morning across the Tug Hill Plateau and western foothills
of the Adirondacks before gradually weakening this afternoon and
then ending tonight. Most, if not all of this will avoid KART with
the main focus inland across higher terrain.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Local MVFR/IFR in lake effect snow southeast of Lake
Ontario, and MVFR CIGS across the higher terrain of the Southern
Tier in the morning, otherwise improving to mainly VFR.

Tuesday night...VFR in most areas, MVFR possible across the Southern
Tier with a chance of light rain/snow showers.

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Deep low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will continue to
produce high end Small Craft Advisory conditions today on Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario. Winds will gradually diminish from west to east
tonight through Tuesday, with much lighter winds then expected
through the middle of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Tuesday for NYZ004-005.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock