966
FXUS61 KBUF 040020
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
720 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold air flowing over the eastern Great Lakes behind a cold front
will generate a lake response, with scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms southeast of Lake Ontario through Tuesday morning.
Another storm system Wednesday will bring back widespread rain and
another round of gusty winds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Behind an earlier passing cold front, cold advection northwest flow
will support lake enhanced and upslope showers mainly southeast of
Lake Ontario tonight. Gusty winds continue downwind of the lakes,
though the highest wind synoptic gusts are likely behind us.

Enough effective shear and instability is present over the lake to
support the formation of a few thunderstorms this evening as well.
These more vigorous showers and storms should struggle to remain
surface based as they become further removed from the relatively
warm lake waters, though small hail and localized gusty winds will
be possible especially closer to the immediate lakeshores.
Significantly lower fetch over Lake Erie should preclude much
activity east of the lake through the night.

Broad upper level and surface based ridging will expand across the
region Tuesday. Bottom line is dry weather with temperatures in the
50s along with brisk westerly winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridge axis sliding to the east Tuesday night. Warm
advection clouds increasing overnight, with a low chance for a
few showers reaching the North Country and Saint Lawrence Valley
late Tuesday night.

Clipper system impacts the region Wednesday with showers and a
period of stronger winds. Post frontal cold advection northwest flow
supporting lake effect and upslope showers Wednesday night into
Thursday. Snow may mix with rain across the higher terrain late
Wednesday night.

Ridging and drier air bringing dry weather by Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Progressive pattern continues through the weekend. Two systems look
to move through the region, one on Friday and another on Sunday.
Round of showers and winds with both systems. Colder air behind
the Sunday system could bring some snowfall potential by early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR through the 00z TAF cycle as a cold front well to the
east front pushes through New England overnight.

As of 00z Tue, widespread moderate showers and thunderstorms
associated with the front are exiting the eastern Lake Ontario
region. Post-frontal lake enhanced rain showers and a few
thunderstorms (especially over the waters of Lake Ontario) will
continue downwind of Lake Ontario through the evening, then taper
off in coverage/intensity overnight. More widely scattered showers
remain possible in other areas through 06z though confidence is
lower in timing and coverage of this activity. Brief/localized MVFR
to IFR conditions will be possible in any heavier showers or storms
that move through the region.

Outside of the primary lake effect area southeast of Lake Ontario
(east of KROC), VFR shower-free conditions are expected later
tonight through Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Becoming mainly VFR. A chance of a shower east of Lake
Ontario.

Wednesday...MVFR/VFR deteriorating to IFR. Rain showers late. Windy.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...MVFR/IFR with showers developing.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR. Chance of showers, mainly east of the Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario.

&&

.MARINE...
Behind an earlier passing cold front, Gale warnings remain in effect
for both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario as outlined below with 35 knot
gales expected. Southwest gusty winds will also bring small craft
conditions to the Upper Niagara River as well as the Saint Lawrence
River between from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg.

Elevated westerly winds continue Tuesday. After a lull in conditions
Tuesday night, another cold front crosses the lower Great Lakes
mid week with a period of elevated winds and a wind shift from
southwest to northwest, with additional marine headlines likely
during this time frame.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ001-002-007-
     010-011-019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ042>045-
         062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
         SLZ022.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PP/Thomas/TMA
NEAR TERM...PP/TMA
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...PP/Thomas/TMA