898
FXUS61 KBUF 090004
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
704 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will approach the area tonight. Besides a
few scattered light showers, mostly dry weather will continue this
evening, before much more unsettled weather then makes a quick
return later tonight and Sunday as the area of low pressure crosses
the area. Expect mainly rain south of Lake Ontario and a possible
wintry mix across the North Country eventually giving way to snow
Sunday afternoon and night as much colder air wraps in behind the
departing low. The much colder airmass will also eventually bring a
period of accumulating lake snows southeast and east of the lakes
Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure will strengthen as it moves slowly northeast toward our
area tonight with deeper moisture and stronger forcing moving into
the area. Expect precipitation to move in across the region from
southwest to northeast. Thermal profiles suggest mainly rain south
of Lake Ontario, although may be cold enough initially for a mix of
rain and snow over the higher elevations of the Finger Lakes and
Wyoming/southern Genesee Counties at the onset, with little to no
accumulation expected. Colder air will hang on across the North
Country with snow expected for the second half of tonight, possibly
mixing with some sleet and freezing rain at times as warm nose
continues to push into that area. Snow accumulations are expected to
be an inch or less.

Dry slot will move in across much of the area south of Lake Ontario
Sunday morning, so expect steadier rain to taper off for the first
half of Sunday there. Meanwhile, steadier snow/wintry mix will
continue to transition over to rain across central/southern Lewis
County and southern Jefferson County by midday. Cold northeasterly
low level flow down the SL Valley will continue across northern
Jefferson County/far northern Lewis County with either freezing rain
or a mix of rain and freezing rain continuing through the remainder
of Sunday there. With confidence in least some ice accretion across
the North Country, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for
Jefferson and Lewis counties from 1 AM Sunday to 7 AM Monday, with
freezing rain expected to last the longest in northern Jefferson
County. Otherwise, as the low passes by, expect precipitation
(mainly rain) to become more widespread again across areas south of
Lake Ontario Sunday afternoon. P-type continues remains difficult to
pin down across portions of the Niagara Frontier during the
afternoon hours as model discrepancies continue with regard to the
exact track of the surface low even at this short distance in time.
This will play a large role in p-type on the west flank of the low
with a sharp temperature gradient just to the west of the system.
Will continue with a rain/snow mix across these areas, with the best
chance for an early changeover to snow toward Niagara County. This
will continue to be monitored and updated as newer guidance flows in.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday night a lobe of energy/cold pool from the main upper level
Hudson low will dive southward into the Ohio Valley, while a lee
side seaboard surface low develops and deepens off the east coast.
As this surface low deepens, northwest cold air advection will
change much of the mixed precipitation, including SLV/North Country
freezing rain over to all snow overnight, with the exception of
southeast of Lake Ontario where enough boundary lake warmth will
keep a mix of snow/rain through Monday morning. With the loss of
synoptic moisture Monday, any precipitation will be on the lighter
side, with much of the day dry.

By Monday and Monday night as the core of the cold air passes over
our region precipitation will be all snow with initial northwest
lake effect light snow becoming westerly lake snows through the day
Tuesday. Adding to the complexity of the lake effect event will be a
secondary shortwave from the Hudson Low, with this shortwave
dropping across our region Monday night and into Tuesday. While this
shortwave will return favorable synoptic moisture, it will also
bring added wind shear may prevent lake snowbands from organizing to
their full strength. Slight warming aloft Tuesday behind the core of
the upper level low will allow for mixed precipitation of rain/snow
to reenter into our region...especially near and inland of the still
warm eastern Great Lakes.

In terms of snowfall, much of the region will see at least some
accumulating snow Sunday night with the onset of the cold pool
aloft, with snowfall amounts generally around an inch or less,
except for the Chautauqua Ridge where upslope NNW flow will likely
bring several inches of snow accumulation.

A coating of snow Monday morning, with a bit more snow on the
Chautauqua Ridge and Tug Hill Plateau. Additional snow accumulation
Monday night and into Tuesday with a band of potential snow with an
upstream connection near the state line, though the wind flow may
remain northerly enough to keep the heavier snow totals west and
south of Chautauqua County. Uncertainty remains high, especially as
we head towards Monday night and Tuesday with wind direction...and
subsequent lake effect snowband placement.

Monday will be the coldest day with surface temperatures only in the
low to mid 30s for highs. While most of our region will be dropping
below freezing Sunday night, the coldest night will be Monday night
with over night lows in the low to mid 20s...and interior locations
possibly reaching down into the upper teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An amplified pattern will continue this period with initial upper
level trough slowly being replaced by a building ridge of high
pressure from the Central Plains. Behind the core of the cold air,
we should see moderating temperatures this period...such that much
of the falling precipitation will be plain rain, with still some
higher elevation snow...or overnight snow region-wide.

Ahead of another shortwave trough late Tuesday night and into
Wednesday a LLJ of 40 to 50 knots will bring an increase to surface
winds, with a westerly flow gusting into the 30 to 40 mph range. As
this low crosses southern Quebec, winds will veer to northwesterly,
but remain gusty on Thursday, and not till Thursday night into
Friday when surface high pressure ridges towards our region that the
pressure gradient will relax and put an end to the stronger surface
winds.

Will have precipitation Wednesday through Friday in the forecast with
the upper level trough nearby, but for the start of the next weekend
as the Central Plains ridge builds towards our region, chances for
precipitation will go down for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure will move ENE across the Ohio Valley to north central
PA through early Sunday evening. Areas of precipitation will develop
from southwest to northeast across the area from mid-evening through
the overnight hours. Precip will be mainly rain for most of the area
overnight through Sunday morning. The one exception will be across
the eastern Lake Ontario region, where precip will begin as wet snow
or a rain/snow mix.

Precipitation type becomes highly uncertain by Sunday afternoon. A
wintry mix, possibly including sleet and freezing rain may develop
across the North Country including KART. The rain may also change to
wet snow across Western NY, first across the Niagara Frontier near
KIAG, then progressing south and east from there. Changeover could
be as early as 16z at KIAG. Remaining precip will change to all snow
from west to east Sunday evening as colder air pours into the
eastern Great Lakes.

Flight conditions will deteriorate to widespread IFR by late tonight
and Sunday morning, with widespread IFR continuing through Sunday
evening. VSBY will deteriorate to areas of MVFR in rain, with IFR
possible in rain/snow mix and snow.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR/MVFR with scattered light snow showers southeast of the
lakes.

Tuesday...Lake effect snow and local IFR/LIFR southeast of the
lakes, VFR/MVFR with scattered light snow showers elsewhere.

Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with rain and snow showers, especially east of
the lakes.

Thursday...Areas of MVFR with rain and snow showers likely,
especially southeast of the lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight low pressure will deepen and become better organized as it
makes its way from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio
Valley. As the low approaches winds will veer to northeasterly/
easterly and freshen again, with these becoming rather brisk by
Sunday morning on Lake Ontario, and during Sunday on Lake Erie. This
will eventually necessitate yet another round of Small Craft
Advisories on both lakes, with elevated winds and wave action likely
continuing through the first half of the new week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday
     for NYZ007-008.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSK/JM
NEAR TERM...HSK/JM
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Hitchcock/HSK
MARINE...HSK/JM/JJR