047
FXUS65 KBYZ 170247
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
847 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lower elevation rain and mountain snow through tonight; heaviest
  precipitation east of Billings; snow levels fall to around 7000
  feet.

- Brisk wind and a little warmer with scattered showers Friday and
  Saturday; showers most likely to occur Friday night and early
  Saturday, with a rain/snow mix into the foothills and light snow
  accumulations in the mountains.

- Dry and warmer Sunday (temps in 60s to near 70F).

- Turning cooler with chance of precipitation again Monday;
  followed by drier conditions and seasonable temps Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...

Many locations from Rosebud County and east have received
0.75-1.5 inches of precipitation over the last 36 hours. Rain
showers will slowly shift eastward through the overnight before
exiting into the Dakotas by Friday morning. Winds this evening
have gusted into the 30s and 40s mph for typical windy locations
from Livingston to Molt. These breezy conditions are expected to
continue overnight and through the day tomorrow. Torgerson

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Tonight...

An upper low tracking north and east through Wyoming was bringing
areas of showers and mountain snow to the area. As the low lifts
north and east into the Dakotas this evening, expect the rain and
snow to gradually shift to the north and east as well.
Precipitation is expected to move east of the area by daybreak
Friday. Additional precipitation totals through tonight will be
greatest over the east, where an additional 0.5 to 1 inch of
rainfall is possible. Additional snow accumulations will be
greatest above 8k ft on north/northwest facing slopes, with only
light accumulations in the Beartooth/Absaroka mountains, and a few
inches in the Bighorn Mountains.

Friday and Saturday...

Mainly dry and breezy conditions can be expected on Friday as
subsidence works into the region behind the exiting low. Ensembles
suggest the probability of gusts exceeding 40 mph as high as 90%
for our western foothills in the morning thanks to a decent
pressure gradient and 700mb winds 30-40 kts. Cannot rule out a few
gusts to 50 mph at Harlowton, Big Timber or Livingston (45%
chance). Elsewhere, wind gusts of 20 to 40 mph are possible,
strongest near the Dakotas border. Highs on Friday will be in the
mid 50s to lower 60s.

A fast-moving clipper in WNW flow aloft will push across the area
Friday night through midday Saturday. This feature will bring
more showers to lower elevations Friday evening through Saturday
morning, with a rain/snow mix along the foothills, and a few
inches of mountain snow, followed by another dose of breezy W-NW
winds on Saturday. Will need to keep an eye on the foothills, as
this type of system has a tendency to change the precipitation
over to snow sooner than indicated in guidance. Highs on Saturday
will be a little cooler than Friday, mainly in the 50s.

Sunday...

Shortwave ridging will bring drier and warmer conditions to the
area on Sunday, with highs in the 60s for most places. Tightening
pressure gradients and increased 700 mb winds (30-40 kts) will
bring increasing gap winds for the western foothills Saturday
night into Sunday morning. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph are possible at
Livingston and Nye (50% chance of winds greater than 50 mph).

Monday through next Wednesday...

Cluster analysis indicates better agreement that a broad low
amplitude trough will push across Montana Sunday night through
Monday bringing another shot of rain showers and mountain snow.
The probability for 0.25 inches or more of precipitation is
30-80%, highest over the western mountains. Several inches of snow
are possible in the mountains.

Ridging to westerly zonal flow is progged by ensembles Tuesday
through Thursday with seasonal temps and mainly dry conditions.
STP



.AVIATION...

Rain showers east of KBIL are expected to slowly move off to the
east through the overnight before exiting into the Dakotas around
9Z Friday. MVFR/IFR conditions will continue to be common with
these showers, with occasional IFR/LIFR possible under heavy rain
and very low ceilings. Gusts around 20-30 kts will be common for
most locations by Friday morning, with gusts of 35 to 45 kts over
the western foothills, including near KLVM and K6S0.
Archer/Torgerson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/064 037/055 041/065 040/053 033/058 037/058 038/064
    31/U    40/U    04/W    54/W    10/U    11/U    10/U
LVM 032/060 029/054 036/061 029/049 026/057 029/058 032/063
    01/N    50/U    16/W    75/W    10/B    11/U    10/U
HDN 037/064 035/055 033/066 037/053 029/059 033/058 031/065
    61/U    71/U    03/W    74/W    20/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 040/060 035/054 034/064 038/053 031/058 035/057 033/065
    90/N    30/U    03/W    42/W    10/U    11/U    00/U
4BQ 041/059 036/051 034/066 039/050 031/057 035/055 034/065
    90/U    51/U    01/B    52/W    10/U    01/U    00/U
BHK 037/058 032/053 029/064 035/051 027/055 032/055 031/063
    91/N    20/N    01/B    41/N    10/U    01/B    00/U
SHR 032/062 031/052 028/068 032/050 025/059 030/056 030/067
    50/U    72/W    01/B    75/W    20/U    11/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings