091
FXUS65 KBYZ 081956
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Billings MT
1256 PM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures over the weekend with Sunday morning being
  the coolest morning of the fall for many locations.

- Warmer temperatures return Monday with gusty foothill winds.

- Potential shift to cooler and wetter towards the end of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Through next week...

The clipper system that gave eastern Montana a dusting of snow
this morning will continue to dive into the plains through the day
today. Low stratus may linger throughout the day near the Dakotas
border keeping temperatures seasonably chilly before clearing out
overnight tonight. The CAA behind the dual cold fronts last night
will continue overnight tonight bringing most of the CWA their
coldest lows of the season with Baker getting down into the low
teens by early Sunday morning. With these cold temperatures and
the development of a weak easterly wind overnight tonight, the
potential for fog exists into tomorrow morning. The fog would
likely be localized in nature as some spots may struggle to reach
the dew points in the upper teens and low 20s. Nevertheless, if
fog does develop it would likely do so quickly and visibility
will change drastically over short distances. Additionally, this
may include patchy freezing fog which could create some slick
patches on roads and sidewalks so use caution if traveling Sunday
morning.

As it seems like I have been saying a lot in these AFDs recently;
a broad ridge then builds back into the region to start the week.
This will allow for widespread dry conditions with above average
temperatures. With this ridging developing, the Livingston/Nye
wind machine could get going again Sunday night into Monday
morning. The NAM and GFS show a pressure gradient between IDA-LWT
between 11-16mb at this time as the delta-T between YNP and KLVM
will be around 15F. The ECMWF and GFS both show westerly 700mb
winds around 30kts at this time as well. As of right now it looks
like there is a 60% chance that Livingston sees advisory level
winds (50kts) early Monday morning. As the setup doesn`t change
much the following night, the potential for another windy morning
on Tuesday also exists.

There is a signal that a weak shortwave could drop out of the
Canadian Rockies and through eastern Montana during the day
Tuesday. As of right now it looks like this will be a primarily
wind maker with minimal precipitation. Winds will need to be
monitored as we get more of the mid range models in over the next
few days as a similar story to this past clipper could play out
with a few stronger gusts and maybe some gap winds into the
Harlowton area.

There is a glimmer of hope for those winter/snow lovers towards
the middle of the month as the cluster analysis shows a good
consensus in this pesky ridge finally breaking down. This is, of
course, still quite uncertain as this is in the day 7-9 timeframe
as of right now. WMR

.AVIATION...


Look for the brisk northwest winds to tapper off by this evening.
While the light snow showers over eastern Montana will also come
to an end by this evening, low clouds are expected to persist in
this area through tonight. With this, MVFR to IFR conditions
remain likely around KMLS, KBHK, and K97M tonight. West of this
cloud deck, VFR conditions will prevail, but there is a low risk
(around 20 percent) of fog along an axis around KBIL to KSHR early
Sunday morning. By mid-day Sunday, VFR conditions will prevail
across the region. Arends

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 027/051 035/062 042/064 034/056 038/065 044/062 037/056
    00/B    00/B    00/U    00/B    00/B    13/W    32/W
LVM 024/056 036/064 040/061 034/060 038/065 039/059 034/052
    00/U    00/E    00/N    00/B    00/B    34/W    42/W
HDN 023/051 028/066 040/063 031/056 033/065 037/062 034/056
    00/B    00/B    00/U    00/B    00/B    13/W    42/W
MLS 023/041 027/063 040/058 029/053 031/060 037/062 034/054
    00/B    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    01/B    21/B
4BQ 024/043 028/064 041/058 031/055 034/062 039/063 037/054
    00/B    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    01/B    22/W
BHK 014/037 020/060 035/055 026/051 027/057 034/062 032/054
    10/B    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    01/B    21/B
SHR 021/049 028/068 036/061 029/058 033/065 037/064 032/055
    00/B    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    12/W    33/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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