128
FXUS65 KBYZ 041643
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
943 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty westerly winds (35 to 50 mph) over the foothills west of
  Billings today (Livingston, Nye, Big Timber, Harlowton).

- Periods of moderate to heavy snow in the mountains today into
  Sunday morning. Total accumulations over a foot forecast,
  greatest on west and northwest facing slopes.

- Isolated to scattered rain/snow showers over the lower
  elevations this afternoon into Friday morning.

- Better chance of accumulating snow over the lower elevations
  Friday evening into Sunday morning (uncertainty remains on
  amounts).

- Confidence increasing on warmer and potentially very windy
  weather pattern for early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...

Updated forecast for latest precipitation and wind trends. Winds
stayed on the lower end of guidance overnight along the upper
Yellowstone and Stillwater river valleys as a disturbance crossing
the area disturbed the delicate gap wind setup for most of the
night. However winds have been increasing over the western
foothills over the past few hours as one disturbance pulls away
and another is approaching. Gusts to 48 mph have been recorded in
Big Timber over the past hour and gusts northward to Harlowton
have reached the mid 30s. Latest guidance seems to have a better
handle on things for this afternoon and expect to see gusts in the
35 to 50 mph range across the western foothills today.

The aforementioned disturbance arrives late afternoon and will
bring a chance (20-40% lower elevations) for light snow to most
areas late in the day into the evening hours. Best chances for
lower elevation accumulating snow will be from Rosebud county east
to the Dakotas, but this is only around a 10% chance for an inch.

Precipitation sags into the northern Bighorn and Pryor mountains
overnight tonight and hangs around into Friday morning. Winter
Weather Advisory handles this well for 4 to 8 inches of snow
there, with lesser amounts expected further south into the Burgess
Junction vicinity. Western mountains will get into a prolonged
period of snow that lasts through Saturday as this disturbance
arrives. Going Winter Storm Warnings for the
Beartooth/Absaroka/Crazy mountains is in good shape with no
changes this morning. Chambers

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday...

Gusty to strong winds will impact the foothills west of Billings
today. Around Livingston to Nye, wind gusts in the 40 to 55 mph
range are forecast, but mid-level winds out of the northwest are
currently hindering any strong gap winds from developing. As we go
through the morning hours, these mid-level winds may shift to be
a bit more out of the west, which could favor a short period of
stronger winds at Livingston to Nye (up to the 50 to 55 mph
advertised), but a bit of uncertainty remains on this occurring.
Around Big Timber to Harlowton, wind gusts generally in the 35 to
45 mph range are forecast today, strongest mid-morning into this
afternoon. With increased winds aloft, there are hints that these
locations could see occasional gusts to 50 mph today, but the
chances remain moderate around 50 percent.

With persistent northwesterly flow in place over the region,
active weather is expected to continue today into this weekend.
With this, there looks to be two waves of precipitation. The
first comes this afternoon into Friday, with the second late
Friday into early Sunday morning.

The first round looks to bring isolated to scattered rain/snow to
the lower elevations of eastern Montana and northern Wyoming
today (20 to 60 percent chance, greatest around Big Horn County).
Over south-central Montana, around and west of Billings, downslope
westerly winds look to limit any precipitation from occuring. By
late this evening into tonight, the remaining precipitation over
the lower elevations looks to switch to snow. With this, generally
a dusting to 1 inch are forecast, with a few inches possible over
the higher hills and Wolf Mountains where temperatures may remain
cold enough for precipitation to be all snow, albeit wet snow. In
the mountains, moderate to heavy snow is forecast. The one
exception is on east facing slopes of the Beartooth and Bighorn
Mountains where only light to moderate snow is forecast.

While the second round of precipitation may start as a rain/snow
mix over the lower elevations on Friday, a cold front dropping
into the area later Friday looks to cool temperatures enough to
favor all snow by the evening. Behind this cold front, surface
winds around and east of Billings look to switch out of the east.
This may favor a more prolonged period of light to moderate snow
over the lower elevations. At this time, snowfall amounts for
later Friday into Sunday morning remain around 1 to 4 inches for
areas around, north, and east of Billings. Will have to see how
this trends over the next few model runs. If amounts trend up,
more hazard winter travel conditions could develop. Stay tuned.
Outside of the lower elevations, the mountains look to see another
good period of snow with this second round of precipitation.
Again, west to northwest facing slopes look to be favored when it
comes to snowfall amounts.

With periods of moderate to heavy snow forecast in the mountains
today into at least Saturday, a Winter Storm Warning was issued
for the Absaroka- Beartooth and Crazy Mountains from 2 PM MST this
afternoon to 2 PM MST Saturday afternoon. While this snowfall
will be longer in duration, with a break in the middle, amounts
anywhere from 12 to 24 inches, greatest on west facing slopes
where locally higher amounts are possible, lead to the issuance.
Note, much less snowfall is forecast over the east facing slopes
of the Beartooths from Nye to Red Lodge. Over the Pryor and
northern portions of the Bighorn Mountains, a Winter Weather
Advisory was also issued for 4 to 8 inches of snow between 5 PM
MST this evening and 2 PM MST Friday. While the second round of
snow is expected to impact these areas again, more uncertainty
remains on the extent and impacts.

As ridging builds over the west coast Sunday into early next
week, the main focus in the weather turns to warmer temperatures
and wind, especially over the foothills west of Billings. Arends


.AVIATION...

Gusty surface winds around 35 to 45 kts will continue to impact
KLVM, K6S0, and K1KM into this evening. Snow showers will begin
near KLVM around 18Z and spread east through the afternoon and
evening, becoming rain and snow showers. Expect mountain
obscuration and occasional ceiling and visibility reductions to
MVFR and IFR with the showers. Archer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037 029/036 021/031 017/038 030/042 032/046 029/038
    2/O 33/S    85/S    20/B    11/N    14/O    55/O
LVM 037 026/039 028/039 024/041 031/044 032/049 032/046
    5/S 76/O    87/S    31/N    21/N    24/O    55/O
HDN 038 027/037 018/030 013/039 024/042 026/046 025/037
    3/O 63/S    97/S    41/B    21/B    24/R    65/O
MLS 036 025/032 012/021 007/029 020/040 025/041 022/032
    3/O 51/B    72/S    40/B    20/B    14/O    53/S
4BQ 036 028/034 019/028 013/036 024/042 028/044 025/036
    2/B 51/B    42/S    30/B    10/B    13/O    54/O
BHK 034 022/031 008/017 002/029 016/039 021/039 016/030
    2/Q 43/S    52/S    30/E    10/N    14/O    42/S
SHR 040 023/036 018/035 016/042 022/045 025/050 025/041
    2/B 65/S    64/S    30/B    10/B    12/O    55/O

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Storm Warning in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 2
      PM MST Saturday FOR ZONES 67-68.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to
      2 PM MST Friday FOR ZONE 171.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings