850
FXUS65 KBYZ 232222
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
322 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong cold front Monday. Scattered precipitation (rain/snow w/
  some rumbles of thunder) chances (40-70%) along and behind the
  front.

- Gusty to occasionally strong wind gusts (30 to 50 mph) Monday
  afternoon through Tuesday morning behind the cold front.

- Near to below normal temperatures Tuesday through Friday.
  Periods of light rain or snow possible (20-40%) Wednesday
  through Friday.

- Even colder air arrives Friday night with the potential for the
  first significant snowfall of the season across the area
  through Sunday. Stay tuned if you have Holiday weekend travel
  plans!


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of Today through Sunday...

Breezy conditions in the foothills west of Billings will diminish
through this afternoon. Otherwise clear and dry conditions will
prevail into the overnight hours. A favorable pressure gradient
with moderate 700mb winds sets up over the western gap locations
tomorrow morning. Gusts in the 40s to 50 mph are possible, though
the chance for highlights is low.

The much discussed upper trough and cold front is still depicted
coming through the region Monday afternoon and evening. The chance
for precipitation is moderate to high, increasing from west to
east. Gusty winds will accompany the front, with gusts of 30 to 50
mph. Locally higher gusts are possible in the northwestern
foothills Monday afternoon. The higher hills in southeastern
Montana will then see strong winds Monday night and Tuesday
morning.

The arrival of the cold front happening later on Monday will
allow warm temperatures (highs in the upper 40s and low 50s) to
keep precipitation as rain initially across the area. As colder
air spreads across the southeastern MT and northern WY, expect a
rain/snow mix and subsequent all snow transition Monday
evening/overnight. The latest HREF depiction for precipitation
shows a squall-like feature with the front, moving across the
western foothills and down I-90 towards the MT/WY stateline,
Monday afternoon/evening. Along with this, there is some
instability shown in soundings, with 50-100 J/kg of CAPE. A rumble
of thunder or two will be possible as the front moves through the
mentioned area. Storm total snow amounts continue to drop across
the lower elevations, with less than a half-inch forecast. The
exception being the higher hills in Fallon County where up to an
inch is possible. The combination of strong winds and falling
snow will reduce visibilities in eastern Montana late Monday
through Tuesday morning. Those with travel plans should prepare
for wintry conditions.

The rest of Tuesday and into Friday, upper level flow goes
northwesterly but surface flow varies. Models currently depict a
surface boundary across the western foothills through southeast
MT. This will help keep southwest winds over the mountains and
foothills, bringing downslope flow and warmer temperatures (upper
30s and low to mid 40s) over the plains (30s to 40F). The
boundary will likely push off of the foothills but to what extent
is still unclear. A deep fetch of Pacific moisture will be flowing
into the region throughout the week as well. This overrunning
combined with weak impulses through the NW flow will bring the
chance of rain/snow showers. The potential for mixed precipitation
exists with any boundary oscillations. It is unclear if/when this
could happen throughout the week though. For now will continue to
advertise near to below normal temperatures and unsettled
conditions around the Thanksgiving day period.

Significant cold air has been forecast to arrive late Friday,
along with the first significant snowfall of the season, for the
past week or so in the long range models. This mornings mid range
models have diverged for the weekend into early next week with
many solutions trending warmer than previously advertised, and
also cutting off the snowfall earlier than previously indicated.
For now the Friday night into Sunday continues to indicate
widespread light snowfall and colder temperatures. The snowfall
will be modulated by the strength and positioning of the cold air
intrusion so the current NBM may be feeling the effects of
lingering forecasts from the past day or two keeping precipitation
chances artificially high compared to the latest model runs.
Those with travel or outdoor plans into the weekend should
continue to monitor the forecast this week for more specific
forecast details during this busy holiday travel period.
Matos/Chambers

.AVIATION...

Gusty southwest winds will temporarily decrease this afternoon
around KLVM before increasing once again tonight into Monday
morning ahead of a cold front passage. This cold front, which is
expected to cross the region mid-day into the evening Monday, will
bring gusty west to northwest winds (gusts mainly 25 to 40 knots)
and scattered precipitation (rain transitioning to snow) back
across the area. With the winds, a few gusts to 45 knots are
possible mainly along the front, but chances remain low to
moderate. With the precipitation, there is a low chance of thunder
over south- central Montana during the afternoon and early
evening Monday, and the combination of wind and snow late Monday
into Monday night may lead to blowing snow impacts around KBHK and
K97M. Arends

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 036/052 025/038 022/038 028/041 025/033 015/023 007/015
    15/W    20/B    01/E    23/J    34/J    55/J    43/J
LVM 035/049 017/037 019/041 031/046 027/039 015/027 003/017
    28/W    20/U    03/W    44/W    35/W    55/J    43/J
HDN 031/055 023/038 018/038 025/041 023/034 014/024 006/017
    05/W    60/B    01/E    23/J    35/J    66/J    65/J
MLS 032/049 025/034 016/035 020/034 020/030 013/022 005/014
    02/W    61/N    00/E    11/E    33/J    43/J    42/J
4BQ 035/053 024/033 018/036 023/038 023/033 015/024 008/015
    01/E    61/N    00/B    01/E    22/J    33/J    43/J
BHK 029/048 021/032 011/035 014/032 015/028 009/021 002/016
    02/W    72/J    00/B    01/E    23/J    43/J    32/J
SHR 029/053 018/035 013/038 021/043 023/037 013/027 003/018
    02/N    71/N    00/E    12/J    24/J    56/J    65/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings