714
FXUS65 KBYZ 250416
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
916 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Combination of gusty winds (35 to 55 mph) and snow showers may
  cause difficult driving conditions tonight into Tuesday morning
  over portions of southeastern Montana.

- Near to below normal temperatures Tuesday through Friday.
  Periods of light rain/snow possible (20-40%) Wednesday through
  Friday.

- Even colder air arrives Friday night with the potential for the
  first significant snowfall of the season across the area
  through Sunday. Stay tuned if you have Holiday weekend travel
  plans!

&&

.UPDATE...

Today`s cold front has now moved south and east into Wyoming and
the Dakotas, but lingering gusty winds and rain/snow showers exist
as a surface low wraps up over northeastern Montana and
northwestern North Dakota. As this surface low drops south and
east tonight, gusty winds and snow showers are expected to
continue over portions of the region into Tuesday morning.

As far as the winds go, look for the gusty winds to continue
across the area tonight with gusts generally around 25 to 45 mph.
Over far southeastern Montana, wind gusts look to be a bit
stronger with occasional gusts around 50 to 55 mph. Recent model
guidance even suggests 60 mph winds are possible (moderate chance)
over the higher hills of Carter County as strong winds move in
just above the surface. With precipitation in the area, this may
be enough for some of the higher gusts to reach the surface. Will
have to monitor the situation, but have gone ahead and increased
winds over this area for tonight. Look for the gusty winds to
decrease from west to east late tonight through Tuesday morning.

As far as the precipitation goes, the lingering rain/snow showers
are expected to transition to all snow tonight as temperatures
drop below freezing. With this, the combination of gusty winds and
falling snow will likely create blowing snow and reduced
visibility at times, tonight into Tuesday morning. Along with
this, overnight lows in the 20s may be sufficient for roads to
become slick. Therefore, the Winter Weather Advisory for Carter
and Fallon Counties remains in good shape. While blowing snow and
slick road impacts are possible farther west of these counties,
confidence remains lower. However, those with travel plans should
still stay aware traveling east of Billings tonight into Tuesday
morning. Along with the winds, the snow looks to taper off through
the morning hours, coming to an end by mid-day. Arends

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Tuesday...

An active pattern will start with the quick hitting clipper
system entering the region right now. Scattered precipitation
across the area will give way to a narrow band of more intense
precip associated with a cold frontal passage. This front should
be in the foothills by 21z, Billings by 23z, and Southeast Montana
by 01z. The largest question at this time associated with this
FROPA is the precipitation type. Both the HREF and REFS ensembles
show a higher probability that this precipitation falls as rain,
however, the CAA is forecast to be quite strong and thus an
earlier changeover is quite possible. The p-type will have massive
implications in terms of the overall impacts for SE MT and US-212
as snow falling in the gusty post-frontal winds will greatly
reduce visibility. Wind gusts behind the front are forecast to
gust to 40mph with 55mph gusts possible on top of the hills. If
the precip does fall in the form of snow, travel may become
dangerous for a short period of time.

Behind the clipper cold front, Tuesday will feature temperatures
near to 5F below average. Winds are forecast to remain gusty
through at least mid-day. A 700mb jet with winds up to 50kts will
be on the backside of the low which could bring northwesterly
wind gusts in the 40s mph, especially in Eastern Montana and
Northeast Wyoming. Additionally, some backside snow is forecast to
move into the eastern Montana with the most widespread snow
focused around Baker. This could, yet again, pose a travel risk
during the day with falling and blowing snow reducing visibility.
Models also show all road temperatures in this region cooling to
freezing before noon Tuesday may allow for some light accumulation
on roadways as well. Impacted roads do include I-94 and US-12.
WMR

Wednesday into the weekend...

Temperatures are forecast to continue to be roughly around average
through the Thanksgiving holiday. For the Billings area this
translates to highs around 40F and lows in the mid 20sF.

Late in the day on Thanksgiving and into Friday, small amounts of
energy start to make their way into our region. This could allow
for some light snow to start falling in the foothills west of
Billings before the end of Thanksgiving Dinner.

The main show gets going as a high amplitude trough enters the
area during the day Friday. While there are still quite a few
discrepancies between the models, there is a good signal in for a
widespread snow accumulation event this weekend. The entire
forecast area has a 40% chance of seeing at least 3" of snowfall
between Friday and Monday. Following this system, the coldest air
of the season is forecast where widespread single digit lows look
likely. All this to say, if you have travel plans following
Thanksgiving, keep a close eye on the forecast as we get closer
to the event and more details emerge. WMR

.AVIATION...

Rain/snow showers will gradually transition to all snow tonight,
before tapering off through Tuesday morning. Winds will remain
gusty tonight as well with gusts mainly in the 25 to 40 knot
range, with a few gusts around 45 knots over far southeastern
Montana. Look for these winds to decrease from west to east late
tonight through Tuesday morning. The combination of winds and snow
tonight into Tuesday morning may reduce visibility to MVFR/IFR,
with localized LIFR, at times, mainly around KMLS, KBHK, and K97M.
Currently, the chance of seeing visibility drop below 1SM is
moderate to high around KBHK and K97M. While KSHR could also see
brief impacts, snow showers will be much more isolated. After the
snow ends by mid- day Tuesday, VFR conditions will prevail. Arends

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 023/038 025/041 028/038 027/039 017/025 010/020 007/029
    10/U    02/J    12/W    45/W    44/J    54/J    21/B
LVM 018/038 024/043 028/045 029/041 017/030 007/023 011/033
    20/B    24/J    24/W    45/W    44/J    53/J    21/B
HDN 023/038 021/041 025/041 024/037 016/027 008/020 004/029
    30/U    03/W    12/W    56/W    55/J    65/J    32/J
MLS 025/035 019/036 018/035 023/032 014/023 007/018 004/025
    71/N    00/E    00/E    44/J    32/J    42/J    21/E
4BQ 026/034 019/037 021/038 025/036 017/026 010/018 007/025
    62/N    00/E    00/E    23/J    23/J    43/J    21/B
BHK 022/031 012/036 013/035 017/029 011/023 004/018 002/026
    87/J    00/E    00/B    34/J    32/J    32/J    21/B
SHR 018/035 015/039 021/041 022/041 014/028 005/020 003/030
    20/N    02/J    11/E    35/W    54/J    65/J    32/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 11 AM MST Tuesday FOR
      ZONES 33-37.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings