942
FXUS62 KCAE 201724
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1224 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm stretch continues through the end of the week. Near record
high temperatures remain possible on Friday ahead of the next
system. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
with a cold front before high pressure and dry conditions return
for the start of Thanksgiving week. Rain chances then move back
in during the mid week Thanksgiving week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Cooler today with dry conditions.

Currently: Some pesky lower clouds and patchy fog continue to
hang on over portions of the forecast area, mainly from the
Savannah River to the I-26 corridor. Satellite imagery shows
some signs of erosion, but it`s slow at that.

Rest of the afternoon and tonight: The moisture pooled in the
area that is allowing the clouds to hang on is expected to
remain in the area through the rest of today and tonight. Expect
these clouds to continue to erode, but there is some uncertainty
into how quickly they do clear out, which will affect the high
temperatures today. If the clouds hang on, highs will likely be
lower than currently forecast. Otherwise, we are underneath a
mid-level ridge. A shortwave embedded within this ridge is
forecast to rotate around the northern end, bringing some
showers near the area. Latest guidance indicates that a few
showers may sneak into the far northern portions of the forecast
area tonight, but most of the area is expected to remain dry.
With the shortwave moving through, moisture is forecast to
continue being pooled in the area, so there is potential for
fog, possibly dense, once again late tonight/early Friday in
roughly the same locations as this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Near recored temperatures possible Friday and Saturday.

- Isolated to scattered showers and a couple storms possible
  Saturday.

Friday and Friday Night: The upper ridge holds over the area
most of the day Friday before flattening out overnight and into
Saturday in response to a series of shortwaves moving out of the
Southern Plains. Strengthening southwesterly flow will continue
to advect moisture into the area (PWAT`s near 1.25") and bring
warm advection that will bring temperatures to near record
values, in the upper 70s to low 80s. Dew points also look to be
toward the low to mid 60s so it should feel unseasonably humid
as well during the afternoon. Dry weather is expected to prevail
through the day before isolated rain showers become possible
overnight with surging PWAT`s over 1.50" and subtle height falls
ahead of a shortwave.

Saturday and Saturday Night: At the start of the day, a
shortwave will be nearing the region along with a developing
area of low pressure toward the Mid Atlantic along a diffuse
frontal boundary. Persistent moisture advection should maintain
isolated rain showers into the morning hours before the frontal
boundary and core of the shortwave are expected to move through
the area during the afternoon, clearing the FA overnight. The
plume of enhanced moisture advection is expected to shift east
through the day, leading to more isolated PoP`s during the
afternoon where a couple storms can not be ruled out with
minimal elevated instability noted in forecast soundings. This
activity then likely wanes overnight as the front clears the
region. In terms of temperatures, persistent strong
southwesterly flow could bring another afternoon with near
record temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Temperatures briefly cool to near normal before rising back
  slightly above normal.

- Rain chances move back in through the midweek.

Slightly cooler and drier air is expected to push in along with
brief shortwave ridging behind Saturday`s front for Sunday and
into Monday. This pattern should keep temperatures closer to
normal, but with dry conditions. The pattern likely amplifies
Tuesday and into the midweek as seen in the EC Ensemble and GEFS
mean solutions where deep troughing moves into the Central US,
maintaining moist southwesterly flow aloft in the FA. A series
of shortwaves should move through Tuesday and Wednesday,
bringing at least isolated chances for rain each day with
temperatures just above normal. There has been a consistent
signal in global models that a stronger cold front could push
through toward the late week, bringing back cooler/drier
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR/MVFR cigs give way to VFR this afternoon. Another period of
fog is possible again late tonight.

The terminals (except DNL) are all reporting IFR/MVFR cigs at
the time of this writing. Satellite imagery shows clearing at
AGS as well. Expect these to cigs to continue for a while, but
there is uncertainty in how long the low clouds hang on. Once
they do finally clear out, VFR conditions expected through later
tonight when fog and low cigs are possible once again. As of
now, it looks like the onset of this fog is anticipated around
the 06z-08z time frame. Generally light easterly winds around
5 kts can be expected through about 00z before they become light
and variable and calm overnight. Winds switch to southwesterly
and increase after about 15z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions likely continue
Friday afternoon. Increasing moisture Friday night into
Saturday will lead to chances for rain and possible
restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$