639
FXUS62 KCAE 190608
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
108 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After a day featuring above-normal temperatures, a backdoor
cold front will move through tonight resulting in cooler
temperatures for much of the forecast area on Thursday. Near
record high temperatures remain possible on Friday ahead of the
next storm system. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible
on Saturday with a cold front before high pressure returns for
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Warm and dry conditions expected today

High clouds are passing through the area currently as a shortwave
passes through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic at this
hour. Some of these clouds are just debris cloudiness originating
from convection in TN but some of it is mid-level stratus developing
as moisture slowly increases from the west. Overall, though,
the weather is quiet. Temperatures are much warmer than they
were last night, owing to an increase in surface moisture.
Additionally, low- level winds are forecast to pick up as the
primary surface low passes to our north and increases the
pressure gradient across the area through the night. Lows should
stay elevated in the mid 40s for most.

As we get into the day today, a mix of sun and clouds is expected
across the area. The shortwave trough is forecast to pass to our
north and this should keep the bulk of the forcing for ascent well
north of the area. Still, as a weak front approaches the region from
the west, moisture will increase relatively quickly as there is
a pool of 50s and 60s dewpoints to our west. Southwesterly flow
should be common to start the day but will gradually shift more
westerly as the day progresses. Flow above the surface is
expected to gradually veer through the day and become
northwesterly by this evening. This is important because there
is some guidance trying to suggest isolated showers developing
this evening. While this is certainly possible, especially in a
better low-level moisture regime, it seems unlikely as we should
see increased downslope flow above the surface by this
afternoon and evening. This is typically unfavorable to
precipitation across the area. Highs today look quite warm but
may be muted by cloud cover, with highs expected to be in the
upper 70s to around 80. Tonight, expect high clouds to continue
passing through the area as the front/backdoor front slowly
works its way into the area. Lows are forecast to be in the low
50s. Some patchy fog is possible but is very uncertain right now
and seems like it may be limited in aerial extent.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Not as warm on Thursday due to northeast flow behind a
  backdoor cold front.

- Near record highs possible on Friday as winds shift back to
  the southwest.

Thursday and Thursday Night: The passage of a backdoor front
should promote northeasterly flow at the surface for locations
north of the boundary. Much of the FA will spend the day on the
cool side, resulting in lower daytime temperatures than today.
Forecast highs range from the lower 70s in the Northern Midlands
to around 80 degrees in Burke County, Georgia which will be the
last to see the wind shift. Despite the presence of the front,
rain is not expected. Clouds increase in coverage Thursday night
ahead of the next storm system limiting overnight cooling.
Forecast lows are generally in the mid-50s.

Friday and Friday Night: An upper ridge axis will be positioned
over the FA on Friday, flattening at night in response to an
approaching shortwave. At the surface, winds shift southwest
early as the boundary from the previous day becomes a warm
front and shifts north of the region, promoting moisture and
warm air advection. Near record high temperatures remain
possible on Friday, with forecast highs in the mid-70s to lower
80s, but how warm the region gets will be dependent on the cloud
cover, which should lower and thicken as the day goes on. A
cold front associated with the next storm system approaches
Friday night, with a chance for a few showers towards daybreak
especially north and west of I-20. A mild night is expected with
lows near 60 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key message(s):

- A cold front crosses the region on Saturday with a chance of a
  few showers or thunderstorms early in the day.

- Sunday and Monday are warm and dry.

- The next chance for rain arrives on Tuesday.

A shortwave quickly passes north of the region on Saturday.
Meanwhile, low pressure centered over North Carolina at daybreak
Saturday moves eastward, dragging a cold front through the FA,
shifting winds from southwest to northwest by daybreak Sunday.
A few showers or thunderstorms could accompany the frontal
passage during the first half of the day, followed by clearing
skies as a drier air mass filters in behind the front.
Temperatures could be tricky and highs may end up lower than
currently advertised due to timing differences with the front,
but values will likely remain well above average. Winds could be
breezy at times and may stay up into the night, limiting
radiational cooling.

A new upper ridge approaches the region on Sunday, passing
overhead on Monday. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure
centered to the north will keep the region dry through Monday
night. Temperatures both days should be above seasonal values.
The next chance of rain arrives near the end of the extended as
upper ridging and high pressure are pushed east in response to a
developing storm system emerging from the Southern Great Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR expected through the period.

Mid to high level clouds are working their way across the
forecast area. There is some altostratus noted across the
upstate and western Georgia but is struggling to develop
eastward. Moisture is slowly increasing across the area, hence
the overall increase in cloud cover, but it isn`t expected to
yield much in terms of aviation impacts. Low-level winds are
forecast to increase over the next few hours but should be weak
enough to avoid any LLWS. As we get into today, we should see a
mix of sun and clouds with ceilings generally settling into the
4-6 kft range this afternoon. Winds should be southwesterly to
start, veering to westerly by this evening. The low-level jet
should mix through early afternoon, with 7-12 knot winds and
gusts up to 20 knots possible. Tonight, high clouds should
continue to hang around with winds falling near calm again. VFR
conditions continue to prevail.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions likely continue through
most of the week with dry air in place. Increasing moisture
Friday night will lead to chances for rain and possible
restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$