931
FXUS62 KCAE 232315
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
615 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Slightly cooler temperatures are expected tonight, cooling
further on Monday as high pressure passes to the north. Tuesday
and Wednesday are warm with a chance of showers and perhaps a
few thunderstorms with the passage of a cold front on Wednesday.
A very dry and much colder air mass moves in behind the front
for the remainder of Thanksgiving week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Key message(s):

- Dry and cooler through tonight.

The weather continues to be beautiful across the area. High
pressure and dry air settled across the region this afternoon
yielding temperatures into the 70s but much lower dewpoints than
we have had the last few days. Looking towards tonight, high
pressure is forecast to keep things dry and quiet across the
forecast area, with light winds also fostering near ideal
radiational cooling conditions. Dewpoints are in the mid 40s, so
lows won`t be too low tonight but should end up falling into the
low to mid 40s for most tonight. Expect clear skies for the most
part as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Continued dry and a bit cooler on Monday.

- Warmer Tuesday and Wednesday with a chance of showers and
  perhaps a few thunderstorms with the passage of a cold front
  on Wednesday.

The axis of an upper ridge will pass through the region on
Monday while surface high pressure to the north moves offshore.
After any patchy morning fog burns off, the day will begin
mainly sunny with increasing high-level cloudiness as the day
goes on. Winds around high pressure will be northeast shifting
east around midday. As a result, forecast highs are slightly
lower than today despite ridging aloft with values ranging from
the upper 60s to mid-70s. PWATs increase quickly Monday night as
the next storm system approaches allowing clouds to lower and
thicken. This limits cooling somewhat with lows in the mid-40s
to lower 50s.

The upper flow will be southwesterly on Tuesday and Wednesday as
a trough moves from the Upper Great Plains into the Great Lakes
region. The surface cyclone will move from around Minneapolis at
daybreak Tuesday, across Lake Superior, and into Ontario by the
end of the short term. This storm system will drag a cold front
through the FA on Wednesday. Surface winds shift to the south
on Tuesday and southwest on Wednesday ahead of the advancing
cold front. Rain chances increase on Tuesday with rain most
likely Tuesday night into Wednesday when a few thunderstorms
will also be possible. While precipitation is in the forecast,
forecast rainfall amounts are not high and are generally under
an inch with this event. Daytime temperatures will be above
normal both Tuesday and Wednesday with forecast highs in the
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Very dry and much colder weather is expected for Thanksgiving
  and the remainder of the week.

A significant pattern change occurs during the extended as a
much colder and very dry air mass filters in behind the cold
front for Wednesday night and the remainder of Thanksgiving
week. Temperatures Wednesday night fall into the mid-30s to
lower 40s as skies clear out. Below normal temperatures are then
expected Thursday through Saturday. The chance of rain is very
low, less than 10 percent through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the 24hr forecast
period, although some fog/stratus may be possible at OGB/AGS.

High pressure centered over the OH Valley will continue to build
into the region overnight. Skies should remain clear overnight
with only some possible higher clouds moving through the CSRA on
Monday. However, HRRR and NBM guidance is suggesting some
stratus/fog may develop along the Coastal Plain and move
southwestward along the eastern Midlands possibly impacting
OGB/AGS during the 09-13z time frame, so including a tempo group
for IFR restrictions there. Otherwise, near calm winds overnight
then pick up to around 5 to 7 knots from the east after 15z
Monday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation concerns
expected through early next week. By mid-week, another
approaching cold front Wednesday into Thursday could bring a
return of restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$