175
FXUS62 KCAE 101752
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1252 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds are expected the remainder of today and into tonight
as an abnormally cold airmass works into the area. Temperatures
are very likely to drop into the 20s tonight into Tuesday
morning with a Freeze Warning in effect starting at 8 PM.
Temperatures moderating for the second half of the week to near
average.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Wind gusts of 30-40 mph possible through this evening before
  diminishing tonight.

- Hard Freeze likely tonight with lows into the 20s.

The upper low can clearly be made out entering northern
Tennessee in WV imagery early this afternoon as strong cold
advection persists, only allowing temperatures to reach the
upper 40s to low 50s as high temperatures today. The anomalously
deep trough (NAEFS 500 mb and 200 mb heights at a
climatological minimum) will continue to shift overhead through
this evening and tonight with its nearly -40C core scraping near
the Pee Dee region. This will help also bring 850mb
temperatures near a climatological minimum (-10 to -12C). Strong
cold advection is likely to persist overnight, aiding in
bringing a hard freeze with low temperatures into the mid to
upper 20s, though spots into the low 20s are not out of the
question. NBM probabilities for temperatures less than 28F
remain between 80-90% tonight, thus the high confidence in a
hard freeze for most areas. Record low temperatures at both CAE
and AGS likely will be neared if not broken tonight. Due to this
well advertised shot of cold air, a Freeze Warning is in effect
from 8 PM until 9 AM Tuesday.

The other main story for the remainder of today and this
evening is blustery northwest winds as a tightening pressure
gradient occurs with high pressure positioned to our west and
the mixing down of 30-40 kts of flow between 925 and 850 mb,
aided from the strong cold advection. Persistent gusts to 20-25
mph have been seen so far but as the LLJ cranks up this evening
and pressure gradient tightens, a couple hour window with gusts
to 30-35 mph is likely with occasional gusts pushing 40 mph
possible. This nears Wind Advisory criteria but recent HRRR and
NAM3km runs are not as impressed with these higher end gusts and
NBM probabilities for over 35 mph are around 30-45% in
localized spots, thus have decided to hold off on this. These
gusts then are expected to wane tonight.

The last part of today`s forecast is the low probability but
non-zero chance for spotty (no impact) sprinkles or even
flurries this evening into the early overnight near the Pee Dee
region. Forcing from the upper trough will be approaching this
evening with its very cold core and a very strong PV anomaly
scraping near the NC/SC border into the Pee Dee region. Moisture
will generally be lacking but forecast soundings continue to
indicate around a 1 km deep cloud layer lining up with the
passing of the aforementioned forcing and perhaps even a subtle
pocket of 850 mb warm advection as seen in the recent GFS, NAM,
and RAP. Very dry/mixed low levels are seen under this, thus
despite wet-bulb temperatures being near 0C this evening,
confidence in evaporation being able to cool/moisten the low
levels enough to bring precip to the surface is low. With this
said a couple CAM solutions continue to show the possibility of
a couple sprinkles or no impact flurries reaching the Pee Dee.
Current thinking leans toward sprinkles still as the timing is
when surface temperatures are still between 33-36F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Cold weather continues Tuesday, warming into midweek.

It continues to look quite cold on Tuesday. Center of the
surface high is forecast to be near the forecast area through
the day on Tuesday, slowly propagating eastward. The airmass is
anomalously cold and dry, with 850 hPa temps remaining below the
10th percentile. It will be difficult for temperatures to warm
much especially with the core of the surface high passing nearby
& with temperatures beginning the day in the mid 20s. So look
for highs generally in the upper 40s across the area. Temps will
likely cool very quickly on Tuesday evening before tapering a
bit, with lows likely being hit early on, especially across the
central and northern Midlands. A strong, fast moving surface low
is forecast to push into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern US
early Wednesday and during the day on Wednesday. This should
create a tight pressure gradient across the area, with breezy
winds picking up late Tuesday night and continuing through the
day on Wednesday. Lows will likely be in the upper 20s or low
30s across the southern Midlands and CSRA closer to the surface
high, with mid 30s more common near the NC border. The
aformentioned winds are expected to continue through the day on
Wednesday, with gusts of 20-25 mph possible out of the
southwest. This should begin our warming trend, with highs
pushing into the low to mid 60s. Lows are expected to warm on
Wednesday night too, falling into the upper 30s and low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Temperatures moderating to near average by the end of the
  week.

A quiet period of weather looks likely in the long term, with
increasingly nice weather expected heading towards the weekend.
Heights will gradually rise through the end of the week, with
dry high pressure maintaining is grip over our weather. PWs are
forecast to be below 0.75" for much of the period, only rising
near 1" by the late weekend period. Temps will slightly rise
each day, rising from the mid 60s Thursday back into the low to
mid 70s by Sunday, with lows generally in the 40s. Precip
chances are very low until Sunday or Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions with gusty winds continue into tonight before
winds wane overnight.

SCT cumulus are seen forming this afternoon as breezy 10-15kt
northwest winds are developing with gusts to 20 kts generally.
These winds should ramp up some more late this afternoon and
during the evening where frequent gusts to 25-30 kts are
expected with occasional gusts to 35 kts possible. Overnight
these winds slowly wane to 5-10 kts but still out of the
northwest with clear skies expected and VFR conditions. VFR
conditions likely continue to the end of the TAF period with
winds remaining out of the northwest to west.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions likely continue into
at least the mid week with drier air in place.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
     Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
     SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
     135>137.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
     Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
     GAZ040-063>065-077.

&&

$$