Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
162 FXUS62 KCAE 051745 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1245 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Periods of rain remain possible today, with highest chances in the eastern Midlands and lower CSRA. Unsettled weather then continues into the weekend and potentially into early next week. Dry conditions are then anticipated for the mid to late week period while temperatures remain below normal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key message(s): - Rain and low clouds have overspread the region finally, locking in a dreary, cold day. - Temperatures likely will not move much over the next 12-18 hour given copious cloud cover. Rain redeveloped this morning within broad southwesterly flow and decent warm advection. Guidance was pretty terrible with this and continues to do fairly poorly with the placement and coverage of this. The eastward movement of the trough axis helping to force this is limited, and the expectation is that rainfall will continue to periodically develop through this evening. Even where rain lightens up or becomes less copious, drizzle is forecast as forecast soundings reveal a favorable setup for drizzle especially with low clouds already in place. Look for highs to maybe move 1-3F from where they are right now but even that feels like a stretch. Overnight, the favorable setup for light showers or drizzle will continue, with low clouds holding temperatures in the low to mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Widespread showers Saturday, especially south of I-20 but trending drier Sunday. - Below average temperatures continue. By Saturday morning, a relatively strong moisture gradient will be in place across the area with HREF mean PWATs near a half an inch in the NW portion of the forecast area and closer to an inch in the southeastern area. Forecast soundings show sufficient moisture in the upper and low levels to continue to support widespread clouds, although HiRes guidance is indicating lower clouds scouring out in the western portion of the forecast area through the day. While moisture may not be as high as Friday, a more well defined shortwave will approach from the west which will likely lead to widespread rain showers south of I-20, with rain chances decreasing north. Rain is expected to be generally light with blended guidance indicating around 50 percent probability of total rainfall less than a quarter inch in the southeasternmost portion of the area (where the most rain will fall in the area). Another cool day expected Saturday with highs a couple degrees warmer than Friday, generally in the low 50s. Model consensus continues to trend towards drier air pushing in Saturday night into Sunday which will lead to decreasing clouds and temperatures expected to drop into the 30s. LREF mean PWATs continue to trend lower for Sunday as latest runs indicate around 60-80 percent probability of PWATs less than a half inch. A gradual warming trend continues to be indicated by blended guidance with temperatures a couple degrees warmer than Saturday, although highs still expected to remain below seasonal average with clouds lingering into Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key message(s): - Upper trough moves through Monday with additional rain chances. - Drier and colder air mass settles over the region through midweek. Uncertainty next week in regards to the timing of a strong upper trough that will pass through Monday at some time Monday. While moisture continues to be limited, blended guidance favors a slight chance of showers with strong forcing. Higher confidence that behind this trough, a colder air mass settles over the forecast area with GEFS and EC ensemble means indicated 500mb heights around one standard deviation below normal. Blended guidance continues to show high confidence in temperatures well below normal early next week with some moderation towards the end of the long term period, although still below average. Dry weather and below average PWATs expected to continue beyond Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LIFR and IFR conditions are expected through the majority of the period. Rainfall redeveloped across central Georgia and quickly pushed across South Carolina this morning. Rain is still ongoing at area TAF sites and has resulted in LIFR or IFR conditions at all sites. While the predominant rain is expected to push northeastward today, periodic showers are forecast to continue redeveloping this afternoon and evening, with drizzle remaining common when showers aren`t occurring. Given the presence of in- situ cold air damming, these conditions are likely to remain this bad through the period. The TAFs are quite pessimistic as a result, with low VIS from drizzle and low cigs expected throughout the period. Winds will likely be light and variable throughout as a weak pressure gradient exists across the area. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely to continue into Saturday as low ceilings continue and another round of rain remains possible, but chances for rain have decreased. Rain chances diminish Sunday and into the early week, but ceiling restrictions may remain in place at least part of Sunday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$