840
FXUS62 KCAE 021019
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
619 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather likely through the remainder of the week.
Northeasterly flow strengthens will promote cooler than normal
temperatures. Rain chances increase again Sunday and into early
next week as moisture increases.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Cool, dry conditions

An upper level trough shifts offshore today as ridging builds
into the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure centered over
the Northeast will ridge down into the Carolinas promoting
northeast flow and cool, dry conditions. Winds will gust to
around 20 mph through the day diminishing in the evening. Winds
will remain elevated tonight preventing ideal radiational
cooling however, temperatures will still drop into the low to
mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Continued cool and dry with occasionally breezy winds.

Upper ridging will be in place during the short term while
surface high pressure remains centered off the New England
coast. This will maintain the overall weather pattern across
the FA during the period. Northeasterly winds will keep dry air
in place with below normal temperatures. PWATs will remain low
on Friday, gradually rising Saturday and especially Saturday
night as winds shift more easterly. Winds could be breezy at
times with gusts of 20 to 25 mph, higher on area lakes. In
terms of temperatures, the deterministic NBM guidance remains at
or above the 75th percentile, so while forecast highs are in
the upper 70s to lower 80s, would not be surprised if they end
up even further below normal. Friday should be mostly sunny but
additional cloudiness is expected on Saturday as PWATs rise.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Rain chances return during the extended.

- Temperatures warm through the period.

Not much change to the forecast in the long term. Rain chances
return on Sunday as flow shifts out of the east allowing PWATs
to rise above seasonal values. There will be a daily chance of
showers, especially Sunday and Monday. Despite the clouds and
rain, temperatures are expected to gradually rise as upper
ridging remains in place. Wednesday is expected to be the
warmest day of the week as a cold front approaches the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions likely through the 24hr forecast period.

KCAE VAD wind profile shows a 30 kt LLJ around 2,000 ft. Winds
are expected to stay up through sunrise keeping the TAF sites
just under LLWS criteria.

Persistent NE flow will continue through the 24 hr TAF period.
As the low level jet mixes down this morning after 14Z we will
begin to see NE gusts around 20 kts which continue into the
afternoon. Dry air will prevent convection and keep conditions
VFR with only a few high clouds overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Dry air remains in place through
Friday night. Moisture returns to the region Saturday which will
lead to increasing rain chances and the possibility of daily
restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$