Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
768 FXUS62 KCAE 060539 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 139 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated to scattered showers today favoring the I-26 corridor and south. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected early this week with ridging in place. The next significant chance of rain comes mid-week as a cold front moves through the forecast area, followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler and dry air to end the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key message(s): - Warmer with chances of rain again mainly south of I-26 corridor The upper level ridge will begin to weaken and shift southeastward today in response to the phasing of shortwave energy lifting northward from the Gulf Coast region with an approaching shortwave trough moving through the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region. Surface high pressure will remain centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast ridging into the Carolinas with low level east-southeasterly flow off the Atlantic. This will provide continued moisture advection across the forecast area, favored over the southern half of the forecast area. The combination of above normal PWATs (140-160 percent of normal) and low level moisture advection should support the chance for showers through the period, with the best chances over the southern Midlands and CSRA along and south of the I-26 corridor. Forecast soundings indicate a bit of diurnal instability so an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. A mix of sun and clouds is expected and should allow temperatures to rise back into the lower 80s today. Tonight, PWATs lower as some mid level drier air moves over the area with 700mb winds shifting from southeasterly to more southerly. However, low level moisture will remain in place with surface southeasterly winds. While some initial clearing is expected during the evening, guidance is suggesting possible widespread stratus clouds developing and this may limit radiational cooling. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Partly to mostly sunny on Tuesday with near to slightly above normal temperatures. - Low chance (less than 20 percent) for a passing shower or two during the day from continued onshore flow. The upper ridge flattens out on Tuesday in response to a sharp trough digging into the Great Lakes. Heights remain above normal though, promoting another warm day under partly to mostly sunny skies. Latest CAMs produce light showers from onshore flow as winds shift to the southeast but any rain that does fall should be light with limited impacts. Expect highs to reach the lower to mid 80s, slightly above seasonal values. The trough continues eastward Tuesday night with a cold front positioned in the Appalachians by daybreak Wednesday. The FA should remain dry but clouds should increase across the northwest towards daybreak. Low fall into the mid-60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key message(s): - Cold front expected to move through late Wednesday into Thursday with showers and thunderstorms possible. - A dry and cooler air mass filters in behind the front to close out the extended. Upper trough moves into New England on Wednesday pushing the attendant cold front into the CWA. Clouds increase with showers and isolated thunderstorms moving in late Wednesday and into the overnight hours. Instability still appears limited, therefore severe weather is unlikely at this time. Temperatures should warm to near or slightly above normal values on Wednesday. A few showers may linger into Thursday depending on how quickly the cold front can clear the FA, but skies should gradually clear from northwest to southeast as a cooler and drier air mass filters in. A tight pressure gradient may result in breezy post- frontal winds Thursday and Friday. Forecast confidence decreases after Thursday with a wide range of solutions regarding the evolution of the synoptic pattern, but cool and dry conditions are favored late this week and into next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions initially, then MVFR cigs expected around daybreak with possible showers through the day. Continued easterly flow off the Atlantic will keep moisture advection over the area resulting in widespread clouds through the period. VFR stratocumulus expanding inland at this time and expect some MVFR cigs to develop around 10z-12z all terminals which may last through 16z-18z. Expect some passing showers late mid morning through the afternoon favoring AGS/DNL/OGB with lower confidence at CAE/CUB but will continue the mention of VCSH all terminals through the afternoon. Light easterly winds expected to pick up to around 8 to 10 knots by 15z and shift a bit more southeasterly by afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture remains in place through mid week ahead of a cold frontal passage, keeping potential for morning restrictions each day. The next chance for significant rain is forecast to be Wednesday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$