316
FXUS62 KCAE 251616
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1116 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather continues with a chance for showers this afternoon
and into Wednesday. A very dry and cold air mass moves in
behind the front for the remainder of Thanksgiving week.
Temperatures return to seasonal values late in the weekend but
the chance of rain also returns by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Showers and a few thunderstorms will move across the
  Southeast today and tonight.

Shortwave moving across Ga this morning has brought a line of
heavy showers into the northern CSRA. This line will continue to
track eastward into the early afternoon hours. While the
southern end of the line has slowed and weakened, the
central/northern portions continue tracking east/northeast. This
should bring the activity into the central/northern Midlands,
with mainly a brief period of moderate rainfall possible.
Lingering scattered light rain expected behind this line
through the afternoon. In addition to this activity, additional
light showers will be moving inland from the coastal plain, with
that activity nearing the far eastern counties during the
afternoon too. Afternoon high temperatures will reach the mid to
possibly upper 70s in many areas prior to the rain, then
temperatures cool into the mid to upper 60s behind the line of
rain showers for a period. during the afternoon.

Later this evening and overnight, break in the rain early this
evening, then another round of showers will become possible
late tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. This rain is
not expected until after midnight, with highest pops closer to
sunrise Wednesday morning. Overnight lows still on the mild
side, with readings around 60 due to warm advection and cloud
cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Scattered rain showers and isolated storms into early
  afternoon ahead of cold front.

- Breezy and warm Wednesday before cold front moves through.

- Much colder and drier Wednesday night through Thursday night

Wednesday and Wednesday Night: Strong upper low/trough moves
into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley driving a cold front
through the forecast late Wednesday into Wednesday night. A line
of scattered showers is expected to be ongoing at the start of
the forecast period with the axis of highest PWATs around 1.5
inches moving through the forecast area and strong moisture
convergence along and ahead of the front. Isolated thunderstorms
also possible with MUCAPE values as high as 500 J/kg but mainly
across the eastern half of the forecast area. Overall rainfall
totals are not expected to be very high with most locations
receiving a tenth of an inch or less but isolated locations
could see up to a quarter inch.

Breezy conditions are expected with an increased pressure
gradient and 850mb winds around 25 to 35 knots resulting in wind
gusts of 25 to 30 mph at times. Strong winds also expected with
the surge of cold advection that arrives Wednesday evening
behind the front and a lake wind advisory may be needed although
it looks marginal at this time. Temperatures will continue to
be warm with above normal highs as the cold air lags a bit
behind the front and surges in during the evening hours. Highs
should again be in the 70s but temperatures plunge Wednesday
night with lows falling into the 30s with the cold advection,
despite non-ideal radiational cooling.

Thursday and Thursday Night: A significantly colder and drier
air mass settles over the forecast area on Thanksgiving day with
dewpoints in the low to mid 20s and possible upper teens by
Thursday afternoon. This will likely result in near critical RH
(25%) but winds should be quite a bit lower than on Wednesday.
High temperatures will be well below normal with 850mb temp
anomalies 5 to 10 degrees below normal resulting in highs in the
50s with continued cold advection. Overnight lows expected to
drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s under mostly clear skies
but still not ideal radiational cooling as the center of the
surface high remains to our west over the MS Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Cold and very dry air mass remains in place into the weekend.

- Temperatures moderate some late in the weekend into early
  next week with possible increasing rain chances.

The upper trough axis shifts east of the area on Friday with
500mb heights and flow becoming more zonal as strong surface
high pressure migrates eastward to the east coast Friday night
and Saturday. The cold and dry air mass will remain over the
forecast area Friday and Saturday with high confidence in below
normal temperatures with highs struggling to get out of the 40s
and low 50s both Fri/Sat. Friday night looks to be the coldest
night with near ideal radiational cooling with calm winds and
clear skies and very dry air mass resulting in lows well into
the 20s. NBM may still be on the warm side for lows as the NBM
50th percentile is several degrees colder and MOS guidance is
also a few degrees colder.

Ensemble mean 500mb flow Saturday into early next week shifts
more southwesterly across the southeastern states in response to
upper level troughing over the western part of the country.
This upper flow pattern should support a transition to more near
normal temperatures with increasing moisture and chances of
rain. While details remain uncertain that far out, ensemble
PWATs rise to 150-175 percent of normal Sunday into early next
week which would favor increased chances of rain with any
shortwave energy moving through the southwesterly flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Variable conditions as rainfall moves through the region the
next 24 hours.

A line of showers will be moving into the CSRA and central
Midlands at initial taf issuance timeframe this afternoon. This
could bring a brief period of mvfr visibilities along the
leading edge in areas of heaviest rainfall. Have started off
ags/dnl/cae/cub with at least vcsh and a tempo group through
20z. May still see some isolated to scattered light rain behind
the main area of precip, so will hold onto vcsh through 00z at
most of those sites for now. At ogb, confidence is lower in
regards to rainfall due to the southern end of the line slowing
and weakening. If it holds together it may be just west of ogb
around 18z. Will make final decision on whether to include vcsh
and tempo at that site closer to actual 18z issuance time
period. In addition to the showers, skies will go from mostly
sunny and vfr, to overcast with ceilings low end vfr behind the
line. Broken vfr ceilings then expected overnight ahead of the
next approaching cold front for Wednesday. There should be
another round of rainfall late tonight, some time after 06z and
through 14z at least on Wednesday. This will bring an additional
period of lower mvfr ceilings and visibilities as it moves
through. Drier air then moves in after 15z, with some lifting of
ceilings near the end of the taf period. Winds today out of the
south ahead of showers, then turning more southwest behind the
rainfall. Winds on Wednesday will turn more westerly as the
front move through, with wind speeds and gusts picking up near
the end of the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Return of VFR expected Wednesday
evening and through the remainder of the period.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$