Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
023 FXUS62 KCAE 060013 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 813 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated showers possible on Monday. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected early next week with ridging in place. The next significant chance of rain comes mid-week as a cold front sweeps through the forecast area, followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler and dry air. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Key message(s): - Cloudy and warmer into Monday morning. Onshore flow continues but a swath of lower PWAT`s will pivot through overnight and keep precip low chances into Monday morning. Cloud cover and some weak boundary flow will keep temps warm again tonight, with lows in the mid-upper 60`s. Another subtle inverted trough and coupled shortwave aloft will rotate into the region towards the end of the period, but rain chances will remain confined to the coastal plain until later Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Decreasing clouds with lower rain chances by Monday afternoon. - Partly to mostly sunny and dry on Tuesday. - Near to slightly above normal temperatures both days. Ridge remains aloft to start off the week, then begins to flatten out into Tuesday ahead of the next approaching upper trough axis moving into the Great Lakes. For the most part at the surface the wind flow will continue to be out of the east on Monday, although slightly weaker with possibly less moisture advection. Could still see isolated showers move inland, very similar to what we saw Sunday. Should be more breaks in the clouds by the afternoon, which will allow for a warmer period of temperatures. Highs back into the lower 80s possible. Tuesday should be drier as surface winds turn more out of the southeast to south, but remain light. With less cloud cover and more sun Tuesday, afternoon highs should be even warmer, with readings in the middle 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key message(s): - Cold front expected to move through Wednesday evening into Thursday with showers and thunderstorms possible. - A dry and cooler air mass filters in behind the front to close out the extended. Upper ridge continues to be suppressed further south as the digging trough aloft moving through the region on Wednesday. This upper trough will push a cold front into the area during the daytime on Wednesday, but the colder air is not expected to really begin pushing into the area until Wednesday night. Ahead of and along the front, scattered showers and even an isolated thunderstorm, can not be ruled out, although the thunderstorm chances will remain low due to limited instability. By Thursday the front will be south and east of the forecast area, although lingering showers may still be found closer to the coast. Much cooler and drier air will setting into the region through the end of the week. Highs Thursday and Friday much closer to 70 degrees, with slightly warmer reading possible next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions to begin the TAF period, with MVFR anticipated around daybreak and possible showers. Mainly high clouds with some scattered lower clouds being noted to start the TAF period. Expect the clouds to gradually lower through the night with MVFR cigs anticipated to develop around 10-12z, including CAE and CUB based on latest model trends. Ceilings should improve around 18z at each terminals, but adjustments may be needed as we move forward. A few showers are also anticipated near OGB, AGS, and DNL. Uncertainty is high for any shower activity near CAE and CUB, so left mention of it out of their respective TAFs. Generally light and variable winds overnight become northeasterly after about 12z, and increasing to 5-10 kts. Winds are then expected to shift more easterly after about 18z. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture remains in place through mid week ahead of a cold frontal passage, keeping potential for morning restrictions each day. The next chance for rain is forecast to be Wednesday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$