124
FXUS62 KCAE 231710
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1210 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Slightly cooler temperatures are expected this afternoon,
cooling further on Monday as high pressure passes to the north.
Tuesday and Wednesday are warm with a chance of showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms with the passage of a cold front on
Wednesday. A very dry and much colder air mass moves in behind
the front for the remainder of Thanksgiving week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Dry and cooler through tonight.

After some morning stratus across the east, drier air has
finally pushed in from the north and brought mostly clear skies
to the area. Those clear skies will last through tonight.
Although there will be plenty of sun this afternoon, it will be
cooler with this airmass. High temperatures still only in the
low to possibly middle 70s. The very dry airmass will combine
with nearly calm winds and those clear skies to bring some good
radiational cooling conditions overnight. With dewpoints
forecast to be in the lower to middle 40s by morning, expect
overnight lows to be relatively close to those numbers too.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Continued dry and a bit cooler on Monday.

- Warmer Tuesday and Wednesday with a chance of showers and
  perhaps a few thunderstorms with the passage of a cold front
  on Wednesday.

The axis of an upper ridge will pass through the region on
Monday while surface high pressure to the north moves offshore.
After any patchy morning fog burns off, the day will begin
mainly sunny with increasing high-level cloudiness as the day
goes on. Winds around high pressure will be northeast shifting
east around midday. As a result, forecast highs are slightly
lower than today despite ridging aloft with values ranging from
the upper 60s to mid-70s. PWATs increase quickly Monday night as
the next storm system approaches allowing clouds to lower and
thicken. This limits cooling somewhat with lows in the mid-40s
to lower 50s.

The upper flow will be southwesterly on Tuesday and Wednesday as
a trough moves from the Upper Great Plains into the Great Lakes
region. The surface cyclone will move from around Minneapolis at
daybreak Tuesday, across Lake Superior, and into Ontario by the
end of the short term. This storm system will drag a cold front
through the FA on Wednesday. Surface winds shift to the south
on Tuesday and southwest on Wednesday ahead of the advancing
cold front. Rain chances increase on Tuesday with rain most
likely Tuesday night into Wednesday when a few thunderstorms
will also be possible. While precipitation is in the forecast,
forecast rainfall amounts are not high and are generally under
an inch with this event. Daytime temperatures will be above
normal both Tuesday and Wednesday with forecast highs in the
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Very dry and much colder weather is expected for Thanksgiving
  and the remainder of the week.

A significant pattern change occurs during the extended as a
much colder and very dry air mass filters in behind the cold
front for Wednesday night and the remainder of Thanksgiving
week. Temperatures Wednesday night fall into the mid-30s to
lower 40s as skies clear out. Below normal temperatures are then
expected Thursday through Saturday. The chance of rain is very
low, less than 10 percent through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the 24hr forecast
period.

Drier air moving in from the north has cleared skies out across
the area. With very limited moisture the next 24 hours, skies
should remain clear and vfr. The dry airmass should help to
inhibit any fog formation at most locations, but as usual at
ags/ogb can not completely rule out brief patchy ground fog from
the nearby rivers at both sites. Winds this afternoon generally
light and out of the northeast, becoming calm overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation concerns
expected through early next week. By mid-week, another
approaching cold front Wednesday into Thursday could bring a
return of restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$