003
FXUS62 KCAE 071127
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
627 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Near to above temperatures are expected to continue through the
weekend. The next chance of rain arrives late tonight as moisture
increases. Showers and thunderstorms are possible again on
Saturday night and Sunday ahead of a well-advertised cold
front. Well below normal temperatures look increasingly likely
early next week, with a hard freeze possible Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm possible tonight

Surface high pressure will shift offshore this morning leading
to moist, onshore flow over southern SC and eastern GA. The
increase in moisture is expected to be too shallow to produce
any precipitation but may result in early morning stratus and
fog, especially in the CSRA.

Weak moisture advection through onshore or southerly flow
today will lead to PWAT values approaching 1 inch by the end of
the day and up to one and a third inches tonight. Temperatures
will rise into the mid 70s with dewpoints up into the mid/upper
50s. A weak shortwave trough will work across the Southeast
today and will help spark convection ahead of the associated
surface front. As the convection continues east into the
forecast area this evening and overnight, the loss of diurnal
heating and departure of the strongest dynamics will likely
lead to diminishing convective coverage. That said, there may
be enough moisture and elevated instability to support scattered
showers or even a few elevated thunderstorms overnight. Mean
most unstable CAPE values from the HREF and SREF are around 500
J/kg across the CSRA with the HRRR and several SREF ensemble
members topping out near 1000 J/kg. The lack of any surface
based instability will make severe weather unlikely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Continued warm this weekend with a chance of showers and
  thunderstorms, mainly Saturday night.

Saturday and Saturday Night: The FA will be under the influence of
deepening upper troughing with increasing southwesterly flow aloft.
At the surface, a weakening cold front will stall over the region.
This will result in continued warm temperatures and a lingering
chance for showers on Saturday. A few showers may linger past
daybreak (mainly in the eastern Midlands) with a low end chance of
additional development for the remainder of the day due to the
aforementioned front in place, with the highest probabilities in the
CSRA. By Saturday night, the atmosphere may be more conductive to
shower and thunderstorm development. A strengthening low-level jet
will result in favorable ascent across the region which could
produce isolated elevated convection which may be able to tap
into weak to moderate instability and moderate deep layer wind
shear. While severe trends have backed off, it will be worth
monitoring. As mentioned, temperatures will be near to above
seasonal values with forecast highs generally in the mid to
upper 70s. The clouds and rain limit cooling at night so
temperatures only fall into the mid-50s to lower 60s by daybreak
Sunday.

Sunday and Sunday Night: A powerful trough takes shape over the
Central CONUS on Sunday, diving towards the FA. This upper feature
will drag a strong cold front through the region Sunday night. Skies
are expected to be partly cloudy for much of Sunday with another
chance for showers and thunderstorms ahead of the boundary. The warm
air advection continues ahead of the cold front, allowing
temperatures to once again climb into the mid to upper 70s. Should
we see more sunshine than currently expected, some locations could
reach the lower 80s, especially closer to the coast. Southwest winds
will be breezy at times as the pressure gradient tightens. Rain
chances end from west to east Sunday night as the well-advertised
cold front sweeps though, ushering in what will be the coldest air
mass of the season thus far. Low temperatures will be dependent on
how quickly skies clear out behind the boundary, but the winds
should prevent idealized radiational cooling. Forecast lows are in
the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west and the lower to mid 40s
south and east. The elevated winds should also prevent the
widespread development of frost towards daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Much colder temperatures on Monday and Tuesday and a hard freeze
remains possible Monday night.

- Dry weather through the period, with warmer temperatures Wednesday
and Thursday.

The shortwave trough axis passes overhead on Monday and to the east
on Tuesday, though longwave troughing likely remains across the
eastern CONUS through the extended. At the surface, the cold front
will have likely cleared the entire CWA by daybreak Monday with high
pressure starting to build in from the west. A tight pressure
gradient results in breezy conditions as a cold, dry air mass is
ushered into the region. Well below normal temperatures are expected
and the wind will make it feel even colder. The pressure gradient
weakens at night as high pressure approaches and the wind will remain
the primary caveat in the low temperature forecast Monday night.
Having said that, confidence remains high in the possibility of
subfreezing temperatures for most, if not all, of the Midlands and
CSRA which will likely end the growing season.  High pressure passes
near or south of the region on Tuesday with lighter winds expected,
though it will continue to be chilly outside. Air mass modification
is expected later in the long term resulting in warmer temperatures
Wednesday and Thursday. The chance of rain during the extended
period is low, less than 10 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High chance of fog/stratus this morning, showers possible tonight

A cold front draped over the Southeast has stalled a little
further north than expected. With surface high pressure now
moving offshore we will see easterly flow strengthen leading to
shallow moisture increases this morning. Models have
consistently shown stratus and fog developing near and south of
the front. With the front stalling further north than previously
forecast there is a greater chance that AGS and DNL will see
several hours of IFR or lower restrictions through 15Z. The
other sites could also experience restrictions but are more
likely to be brief. Satellite imagery shows a solid plume of
stratus west and south of the TAF sites with more patchy
coverage to the north causing periodic restrictions.

Any morning restrictions should ease by 15z. Expect winds on
Friday out of the southeast around 8 kts. A weak front and
associated shortwave will work into the Southeast tonight and
could bring scattered showers and possibly an elevated
thunderstorm or two to the forecast area between 06Z and 12Z.
The scattered nature of the convection limits the overall
chances of impacts to the TAF sites.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A strong upper level trough and
surface front will bring gusty winds and convection into the
area Sunday through Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$