438
FXUS62 KCAE 230021
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
721 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers are possible this afternoon and evening ahead
of an approaching cold front that will pass through the region.
Behind the front, temperatures will cool down, but still remain
above normal through the middle of the week. Another stronger
front will move through by Thanksgiving, bringing additional
rain chances and much colder temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Key message(s):

- Isolated storms possible across the north ahead of a front.

- Mild temperatures continue through tonight.

The cold front is slowly pushing towards us out of the central
Appalachians, forcing isolated showers and storms along the
NC/SC border. These are expected to remain isolated as we head
through the evening hours, with the rest of the area remaining
relatively dry ahead of this front. The best synoptic scale
forcing is well to our north, and this front isn`t exactly
packing a punch either. So tonight should feature fairly benign
weather, with lows falling into the mid 50s for lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Dry and not as warm as high pressure passes to the north.

The shortwave trough will pass to our east Sunday morning with
northwesterly flow aloft as a ridge builds in from the west. The
ridge axis passes overhead on Monday before the flow turns
southwest in advance of the next trough. At the surface, high
pressure builds in from the west on Sunday, with the center
passing north on Monday and then offshore Monday night. Any
lingering clouds clear out Sunday morning in the wake of the
cold front with forecast highs in the lower to mid 70s. Monday
is cooler due to northeast to east flow at the surface as the
aforementioned high passes to the north with highs in the mid
60s to lower 70s. Dry conditions prevail both days but PWATs are
expected to rise quickly Monday night ahead of the next storm
system.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Warmer temperatures expected as rain chances return for
  Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Much cooler weather moves in behind the next storm system to
  close out the extended.

The upper ridge axis will be to our east at the start of the
period giving the region southwesterly flow aloft. This
continues into Wednesday before a potent trough swings through
with troughing in place through the remainder of the extended.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure continues to move away from the
region on Tuesday as an area of low pressure moves northeast
towards Lake Superior. This storm system will drag a cold front
through the FA late Wednesday or Wednesday night followed by a
much cooler and drier air mass and high pressure for
Thanksgiving and the remainder of the extended.

In terms of the weather during the long term, Tuesday and
Wednesday are both warm thanks to southerly flow on Tuesday and
southwest winds on Wednesday. Showers will be possible both
days, with improving conditions Wednesday night once the cold
front crosses through the region. Thanksgiving and Friday are
dry but also noticeably colder with below normal temperatures.
The cold and dry pattern likely remains in place through the
remainder of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the 24hr forecast period.

A cold front will push through the region later this evening and
overnight bringing a drier and cooler air mass to the region.
Skies have generally cleared this evening outside of some
lingering mid level clouds at AGS/DNL which should clear by 03z.
Some higher clouds may accompany a shortwave passing by later
tonight which will drive the front through but no restrictions
are expected. Depending on how fast the drier air can infiltrate
the area there is a possibility of some intermittent fog at
prone AGS and OGB but confidence is low so not included in this
forecast. Winds should be light and from the southwest until the
front passes then shifts to the northwest. Winds pick up from
the northeast around 5 knots by 14z before shifting back to the
northwest during the afternoon but remaining relatively light.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation concerns
expected through early next week. By mid-week, another
approaching cold front Wednesday into Thursday could bring a
return of restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$