Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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564
FXUS62 KCAE 171028
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
628 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and cooler conditions are expected today with temperatures
warming up on Saturday ahead of the next storm system. A cold
front will cross the FA on Sunday bringing breezy winds and the
next chance for rain. Dry weather is likely to follow next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- High pressure building into the region with calm and cool weather
again today.

Strong surface high pressure continues to dig southward into our
area, coupled with the enhanced convergence upstream of the 500mb
trough axis aloft. Water vapor imagery shows a broad shield of mid-
upper level dry air, so along with the surface high pressure and
lack of low level jet we have a solid setup for radiational
cooling into Friday morning. Dew points are in the low-mid 50`s,
with cross over temps right around there as well. Moisture is
slightly higher in the CSRA, and therefore the best chance for
some morning fog especially near rivers. Throughout the rest of
the day, ridging will continue to build in both aloft and at the
surface, with some light northeast winds. So mostly clear skies
and below average temps are expected into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Warmer and continued dry on Saturday.

- An approaching cold front brings breezy conditions on Sunday
  with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday and Saturday Night: Upper ridge axis will be overhead
at the start of the day, moving offshore Saturday night. High
pressure will also move to the east on Saturday, allowing winds
to shift to the south. This will result in modest moisture
recovery though any rain will hold off until Sunday.
Temperatures will be warmer on Saturday with forecast highs in
the mid-70s to lower 80s. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night
will limit cooling, especially in the west with temperatures
falling into the mid-50s.

Sunday and Sunday Night: A potent upper trough will move east
on Sunday, passing overhead late Sunday into Sunday night. The
trough will drag a cold front through the FA on Sunday, though
timing differences remain between the model guidance. The
deterministic GFS shows a weakening line of convection moving
into the CWA around midday Sunday, departing the region Sunday
evening. The deterministic Euro is slower but also shows more
organized convection. In terms of the thunderstorm threat, while
there is a modest 40-50 knots of shear modeled, CAPE is limited
and less than 500 J/kg, therefore a significant severe
thunderstorm event is not anticipated at this time and thunder
has not been added to the gridded forecast. What does appear
more likely is the possibility for breezy conditions ahead of
the cold front and the potential for gusts of 20-25 mph, higher
on area lakes. Will need to watch trends to see if a Lake Wind
Advisory will be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Dry conditions favored during the extended.

A progressive upper pattern is expected during the extended.
The upper trough moves offshore on Monday, being replaced by
weak ridging. Another trough passes to the north late Tuesday
into Tuesday night followed by more zonal flow to end the
period. At the surface, the cold front should be off the coast
by daybreak Monday as high pressure builds in from the west. A
dry cold front will cross the region late Tuesday followed by
the passage of another anticyclone. Temperatures will be
slightly below seasonal values on Monday, warming up Tuesday
ahead of the aforementioned cold front, before returning to near
normal for Wednesday and Thursday. The chance of rain is low,
less than 20 percent, during the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Morning fog with IFR vsby restrictions likely at AGS and OGB,
otherwise VFR.

Elevated moisture in the CSRA is leading to some fog, impacting
AGS and OGB; IFR or LIFR vsby will likely continue to occur
periodically through 13z. Some shallow MIFG is possible for the
other TAF sites around sunrise. For the rest of the day, light
northeast winds and little in the way of cloud cover is expected
as high pressure fills in. Some mid- upper level strato- cu is
possible towards the end of the period and overnight into
Saturday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The next chance for widespread
restrictions will be Sunday morning ahead of a front which will
move across the Southeast.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...