Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
564 FXUS62 KCAE 171028 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 628 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and cooler conditions are expected today with temperatures warming up on Saturday ahead of the next storm system. A cold front will cross the FA on Sunday bringing breezy winds and the next chance for rain. Dry weather is likely to follow next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key message(s): - High pressure building into the region with calm and cool weather again today. Strong surface high pressure continues to dig southward into our area, coupled with the enhanced convergence upstream of the 500mb trough axis aloft. Water vapor imagery shows a broad shield of mid- upper level dry air, so along with the surface high pressure and lack of low level jet we have a solid setup for radiational cooling into Friday morning. Dew points are in the low-mid 50`s, with cross over temps right around there as well. Moisture is slightly higher in the CSRA, and therefore the best chance for some morning fog especially near rivers. Throughout the rest of the day, ridging will continue to build in both aloft and at the surface, with some light northeast winds. So mostly clear skies and below average temps are expected into Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Warmer and continued dry on Saturday. - An approaching cold front brings breezy conditions on Sunday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Saturday and Saturday Night: Upper ridge axis will be overhead at the start of the day, moving offshore Saturday night. High pressure will also move to the east on Saturday, allowing winds to shift to the south. This will result in modest moisture recovery though any rain will hold off until Sunday. Temperatures will be warmer on Saturday with forecast highs in the mid-70s to lower 80s. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night will limit cooling, especially in the west with temperatures falling into the mid-50s. Sunday and Sunday Night: A potent upper trough will move east on Sunday, passing overhead late Sunday into Sunday night. The trough will drag a cold front through the FA on Sunday, though timing differences remain between the model guidance. The deterministic GFS shows a weakening line of convection moving into the CWA around midday Sunday, departing the region Sunday evening. The deterministic Euro is slower but also shows more organized convection. In terms of the thunderstorm threat, while there is a modest 40-50 knots of shear modeled, CAPE is limited and less than 500 J/kg, therefore a significant severe thunderstorm event is not anticipated at this time and thunder has not been added to the gridded forecast. What does appear more likely is the possibility for breezy conditions ahead of the cold front and the potential for gusts of 20-25 mph, higher on area lakes. Will need to watch trends to see if a Lake Wind Advisory will be needed. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key message(s): - Dry conditions favored during the extended. A progressive upper pattern is expected during the extended. The upper trough moves offshore on Monday, being replaced by weak ridging. Another trough passes to the north late Tuesday into Tuesday night followed by more zonal flow to end the period. At the surface, the cold front should be off the coast by daybreak Monday as high pressure builds in from the west. A dry cold front will cross the region late Tuesday followed by the passage of another anticyclone. Temperatures will be slightly below seasonal values on Monday, warming up Tuesday ahead of the aforementioned cold front, before returning to near normal for Wednesday and Thursday. The chance of rain is low, less than 20 percent, during the long term. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Morning fog with IFR vsby restrictions likely at AGS and OGB, otherwise VFR. Elevated moisture in the CSRA is leading to some fog, impacting AGS and OGB; IFR or LIFR vsby will likely continue to occur periodically through 13z. Some shallow MIFG is possible for the other TAF sites around sunrise. For the rest of the day, light northeast winds and little in the way of cloud cover is expected as high pressure fills in. Some mid- upper level strato- cu is possible towards the end of the period and overnight into Saturday. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The next chance for widespread restrictions will be Sunday morning ahead of a front which will move across the Southeast. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...