


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
703 FXUS61 KCAR 170609 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 209 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure slowly builds in today while a low tracks southeast of Nova Scotia. The high builds overhead tonight through Saturday night, then slowly slides to the east through Sunday night. A complex storm system moves through the area Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... A ridge of high pressure will continue to increase its influence over the forecast area today. As the previous low pressure system slowly moves eastward and away from the region, the pressure gradient aloft will slowly decrease. A 30 kt LLJ will gradually mix out through the morning, and gusty winds 20 to 30 mph will begin to diminish into this afternoon, with winds becoming light and variable tonight. Skies will also begin to gradually clear through the day, becoming clear or almost clear overnight tonight. With ideal radiational cooling conditions tonight, temperatures may quickly drop, falling into the mid to 20s up to around freezing across the north, and into the upper 30s Downeast. This could lead to patchy frost development down through the Bangor region and Upper Penobscot valley, though if temperatures fall just another degree or two more over the Interior Downeast region, frost could very well develop here as well. Dry weather and mostly clear skies continue into the day on Saturday, along with light winds. This will aid in temperatures rebounding into the upper 50s over most of the forecast area, with parts closer to the coast reaching into the lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Saturday night: Surface ridging remains in place for the night allowing for early clearing. The approaching cold front should gradually increase cloud cover throughout the night. In addition, winds should switch to a southerly flow, bringing temps to the upper 30s, especially along the coast and higher terrain. Sunday: The warm front moves to the north as the low pressure system and the cold front move north. This should make for mostly sunny skies and temps increasing into the 60s across the region. As pressure gradients tighten, S winds should increase making for a breezy day. Sunday night: The cold front moves closer to the region. The NBM was more aggressive with the progression of the rain, so pushed the start of the rain back to Monday morning. Otherwise, expect a cloudy night with temps in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Models are in good agreement with the timing of the rain starting Monday afternoon. However, the most recent model runs lose consistency with track of the center of the low pressure system. This track should dictate the amount of rainfall for the region. This rain should continue through Tuesday. Another low pressure system is expected to move into the northeast by the middle of the week, though models are inconsistent with the track and timing of the system. Temps should be near normal. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Generally MVFR conditions across all terminals early this morning will begin to scatter out through the morning, becoming VFR by this afternoon. N to NW winds 10 to 15 kts gusting 20 to 25 kts early will gradually decrease through the day, with gusts tapering off by tonight and winds becoming light overnight tonight. Light and variable winds and SKC conditions continue into the day on Saturday. SHORT TERM: Saturday night: VFR. NW winds 5 to 10 kts. Sunday: Generally VFR. Cigs will begin to fall towards MVFR Sun night. S winds 5 to 10 kts. Monday: MVFR in rain. S/SE winds at 5-10 kts with gusts 15-20 kts possible during the day. Monday night-Tuesday: MVFR/IFR in rain showers. E winds 5 to 10 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Gusts up to 35 kts on the coastal waters will linger a few more hours this morning, prior to decreasing to 25 to 30 kts through the rest of the day. The intracoastal waters will begin gusting 25 to 30 kts early this morning and should decrease below small craft advisory levels by mid morning. Seas 4 to 6 ft will continue on the coastal waters until tonight, when all seas in our area fall to 2 to 4 ft. Conditions likely below SCA criteria through the day on Saturday. SHORT TERM: A brief period of small craft winds will return Monday morning, but overall winds will remain less than 25 kts through the period. Seas 3 to 5 feet becoming 4 to 6 feet Monday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ052. && $$ Near Term...AES Short Term...ARL Long Term...ARL Aviation...AES/ARL Marine...AES/ARL