740
FXUS61 KCAR 151818
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
118 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be over the area this evening. Low pressure will
develop along the coast late tonight...track up into New Brunswick
on Sunday... and continue north through the Maritimes Sunday night
through Monday. The low will continue north across Labrador on
Tuesday. High pressure will build in from the west Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A corridor of high pressure across the area between the old upper
low centered over Labrador and a new low approaching from the Great
Lakes will bring a clear evening early tonight. The new low,
supported by a vigorous upper level shortwave cascading southeast
from Central Canada, will be located along the Southern Maine coast
by early Sunday morning. Rain Downeast and snow across the interior
will spread in from southwest to northeast early Sunday morning. Low
pressure will intensify and track northeast along our coast on
Sunday, continuing into Southern New Brunswick Sunday evening.

This looks like a moderate snowfall for the Katahdin region on
north. However, the biggest challenge remains how much snow will
fall near the New Bruswick border where downsloping and some warmer
air backing in from the east may limit amounts. Some of the forecast
models show the 1300 thickness line at 1000/850 nudging just west of
the border during the midday and afternoon Sunday. This may indicate
that enough warm air will flow in from the east to mix some rain in
with the snow limiting amounts. Another forecast issue will be how
quickly a dry intrusion aloft lifts north late Sunday afternoon
causing the precipitation to diminish, versus how quickly the
surface low can develop and continue wrapping moisture back into the
area cutting off the dry intrusion and allowing precipitation
to persist well into Sunday evening. Snow of varying intensity
across central and northern areas will likely continue through
Sunday night with the intensity depending how well the low can
organize to our east. Rain over the south may turn back to snow
or snow showers as colder air surges back in under the storms
circulation Sunday night. However, any precipitation across the
south would likely become light and intermittent overnight.

Main impacts will include slippery conditions, as snow will
likely melt from underneath resulting in a layer of slush on the
roads. Also, wet snow weighing on trees/powerlines may cause
some outages.

Strong low pressure will lift north across the Gulf of St. Lawrence
Sunday night with occasional snow continuing over northern and
central areas. A north to northwesterly wind will pick up
behind the low Sunday night which may cause some patchy blowing
snow in areas where the snow doesn`t mix with rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points:

* Lingering snow showers through Monday

* Gusty winds remain Monday through Tuesday

Discussion:
As the occluded low pulls northeast and away from the forecast
area, moisture wrapping around the backside of the occlusion
will lead to scattered snow showers, particularly across the
north through the day on Monday. The northwest cold air
advection will pull moisture off the relatively warm St.
Lawrence river and could create some river-effect snow plumes
across the northern half of the state. Despite this synoptic
setup, moisture behind the low will still be lacking, and
additional snow amounts are likely to remain below one inch.

A tightened pressure gradient between the departing low pressure
system to the east and the approaching ridge of high pressure to
the west will lead to gusty winds through the beginning of the
week. A low level jet will develop around 900 mb at around 40
kts, and could lead to gusts mixing to the surface of around 25
to 30 mph. Winds could be stronger at higher elevations,
particularly in the central highlands where gusts could reach as
high as 35 to 40 mph. At the onset of these winds Monday
morning, heavy snow which may have clung to and weighed down
tree branches could cause branches to snap as winds pick up,
potentially leading to isolated power outages. As winds continue
to increase through the day on Monday and temperatures warm
above freezing, snow will melt and fall from elevated surfaces,
and this threat will quickly diminish.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

* Next storm approaches from the west on Friday; currently looks
  to bring rain to the CWA

Discussion:
A narrow ridge of high pressure will return through mid-week,
and temperatures will rebound lifting into the mid 30s to lower
40s for highs, and lows in the 20s. The next system will be
another occluding low pressure on Friday. Though some showers
may begin late Thursday night, current model trends are for a
later start during the day on Friday or even holding off until
Friday night. With the diurnal swing being on either side of
freezing, timing of this system will have a large impact on what
precipitation type falls. Current guidance suggests that enough
warm air will advect in ahead of this system for most of the
precip to be rain, but if it crosses the area overnight and the
cold air advection on the back side is strong enough, there
could be a period of snowfall with this system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions this evening will drop to MVFR over
the south after midnight tonight, then IFR early Sunday morning.
VFR conditions over the north tonight will drop to MVFR early
Sunday morning. Winds SW around 5 kt becoming SE.

IFR to LIFR conditions are expected Sunday with rain south and snow
north. Winds E around 10 becoming W over the south, and E
around 10 kt becoming NE over the north.

IFR conditions will persist over the north Sunday night with IFR
conditions possibly improving to MVFR over the south. Winds NW
increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt.

SHORT TERM:
Mon: MVFR at northern sites with scattered snow showers. Brief
IFR vis possible within these snow showers. MVFR scattering to
VFR at Downeast terminals. NW winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts 25
to 30 kts.

Mon night - Tues: MVFR scattering to VFR at northern terminals,
VFR at Downeast terminals. W winds 10 to 15 kts gusting 20 to
25 kts.

Wed - Thurs: VFR across all terminals. W winds decreasing to
around 5 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will increase to SCA early Sunday morning then
gale Sunday night. Seas building to 4 ft tonight, 5 to 6 ft
Sunday then up to 9 ft Sunday night.


SHORT TERM: A gale watch remains in effect Monday through Monday
night for gusts to 35 kts on the coastal waters. The
intracoastal waters are likely to see gusts 25 to 30 kts and SCA
conditions through this time. Seas will begin to settle as gusts
gradually decrease into the day on Tuesday, beginning 6 to 9 ft
but falling below 5 ft by Tuesday night, as gusts drop below 25
kts across all waters at this time. Conditions should then remain
below small craft advisory criteria through the rest of the
work week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday
     for MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ050-
     051.
     Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning for
     ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...MB
Short Term...AES
Long Term...AES
Aviation...MB/AES
Marine...MB/AES