908
FXUS61 KCAR 062336
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
736 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move east of the region tonight through Tuesday.
A cold front will slowly cross the area Tuesday night through early
Wednesday. High pressure will build in Wednesday night through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
730PM Update:
Patches of cirrus continue to overspread the area this evening
with unseasonably mild temperatures continuing overnight. Minor
changes were made to sky cover and to forecast high temperatures
for Tuesday.

Previous Discussion:
A mild south to southwest flow will continue tonight as high
pressure continues to slide east out into the open waters of the
western Atlantic. Expect mainly clear skies again tonight but some
low stratus clouds may overspread Downeast areas late tonight.
Lows will range from the mid to upper 50s across much of the
region.

Tuesday will be one more unseasonably warm day as south to southwest
flow persists across the region in advance of an approaching cold
front from Quebec. Record high afternoon temperatures are once
again possible in some locations. Expect a mainly sunny start
to the day followed by increasing afternoon clouds. Afternoon
highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 70s to around 80
degrees inland away from the coast. Some showers in advance of
the front will begin to overspread the North Maine Woods by late
afternoon and then spread east across the rest of northern and
western Maine by sunset.

The cold front will slowly cross the region reaching the coast
toward daybreak Wednesday. Weak areas of low pressure will
track northeast up along the front as it crosses the area
Tuesday night, with a with a widespread soaking rainfall
expected. A rumble of thunder is not totally out of the question
Tuesday evening across northern areas. Lows Tuesday night will
range from the mid 40s to around 50 across the north and lower
to mid 50s from the Bangor region and Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Wednesday: The cold front will continue to progress through the
state from the NW to the SE. By the morning, the front should
have moved through the north. Though rainfall amounts have
decreased, Downeast can expect about half an inch of rain
through the morning. By the afternoon, rain is expected to exit
over the waters. Temps around the upper 50s.

Wednesday night: As high pressure moves into the region,
pressure gradients will tighten and skies should begin to clear.
Decide to increase wind gusts for the night due to the well
mixed boundary layer above the LLJ. Temps expected to be near
freezing.

Thursday: The center of the high pressure moves across New
England, relaxing pressure gradients and keeping skies mostly
clear. Expect temps mainly in the low 50s for the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure is expected to remain in the region for the rest
of the week into the weekend. By Sunday night into Monday,
extended models are hitting a possible tropical system tracking
along the Atlantic coast and into New England. Track and timing
of this system will depend on the strength of the upper level
ridge over the Atlantic and the upper level trof over the
Pacific west coast. Decided to stick with the NBM slight chance
for this update. Temps near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected tonight through much of
the daytime hours Tuesday. Small probability of IFR ceilings
making it into KBHB and vicinity 09z to 13Z Tue, but confidence
too low to include in the TAF. S to SW wind around 5 kt tonight
and then 10 to 15 kt with G25kt Tuesday.

Outlook for Tue night....MVFR/IFR. Rain. S to SW wind becoming
W late. LLWS possible.

SHORT TERM: Wednesday...MVFR/IFR in rain Downeast terminals,
with Aroostook terminals improving to VFR. NW 5-15kts with gusts
to 25kts in the afternoon.

Wednesday night-Thursday...VFR. NW 5-15kts, gusts to 25kts
Thursday.

Thursday night-Sat...VFR. Light W winds becoming SW 5-10kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through
Tuesday morning, and then increase to SCA levels Tuesday
afternoon and continue through Tuesday night.

SHORT TERM: Seas diminish Wednesday morning along with winds.
Fropa will bring nw winds to the waters Wednesday afternoon with
gusts approaching marginal conditions once again Wednesday
night. Seas will remain below 5ft Wednesday morning through the
end of the week with winds below sca levels Thursday morning
through Friday as high pressure builds in.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather will continue through much of Tuesday. Afternoon
relative humidity will generally range from 40 to 50 percent
away from the immediate coast where it will be higher. Southwest
winds will gust from 20 to 25 mph at times in the afternoon.

A wetting rain is expected Tuesday night into early Wednesday,
with rainfall totals of up to an inch possible. Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday should see a return of dry and much
cooler conditions with gusty northerly winds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are possible again on Tuesday.

Record High Temperatures for Tuesday October 7th:

Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High
Caribou               76/2016        81
Bangor                84/1946        79
Millinocket           81/1946        81
Houlton               76/2016        79

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD/MWS
Short Term...ARL
Long Term...ARL
Aviation...TWD/MWS/ARL
Marine...TWD/ARL
Fire Weather...
Climate...