


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
439 FXUS61 KCAR 140717 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 317 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure slowly exits to the east through today while a coastal low tracks well to the south from the Mid-Atlantic coast. A cold front crosses Maine Wednesday morning, followed by high pressure building in from the west through Friday night. A warm front lifts over the area on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Today high pressure near the Gaspe Peninsula is drifting slowly east while the Mid Atlantic coastal storm drifts east. A weak shortwave at 500mb approaches from the NW with a weak surface cold front. Any showers today will be few and far between and many locations remaining dry. High temperatures top out in the upper 50s to low 60s. Today expecting relatively good weather along the Downeast Coast in places like Acadia National Park. If anyone is heading to the coast to experience peak foliage or heading to the beaches will experience dangerous nearshore surf. We are continuing a High Surf Advisory for areas along the coast till 8PM. Today seas 4-8ft every 10-12 seconds will be crashing into the coastline along with a high risk of rip currents. Rip currents and sneaker waves will lead to dangerous beach conditions. Waves crashing against rocks can splash violently upward and wash onlookers out to sea. Some minor beach erosion is possible. Our messaging is if you plan to be along the shoreline, keep your distance from the water, and never turn your back on the ocean. Tonight, the front will cross the area into Wednesday morning. Behind it pressure gradient tightens and winds shift N-NW with a breeze developing by daybreak. Temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s tonight but a few spots in the North Woods and St. John Valley dip back into the low 30s with frost. On Wednesday an upper level low dips south over Maine with significantly cooler air aloft. 540 line dives south over the Gulf of Maine as 850mb temps fall back into the -3C to -4C range. A weak semi-inverted surface trof will extend back over New Brunswick near the Maine border. This will be the focus for isolated to scattered showers on Wednesday as daytime heating bubbles up cu under the colder airmass. Expecting mainly rain showers but cannot rule out graupel mixing in if there is more robust convective showers. At the same time some snowflakes will mix in at higher elevations like Katahdin with perhaps a dusting. Most of the shower activity will be confined closer to the New Brunswick border. It will be a cool day with NW winds gusting 15-30mph across the area. Highs top out in the upper 40s to low 50s north with mid to upper 50s for the Central Highlands and around 60F along the Downeast coast. Expect areas that have peak foliage to lose a significant amount of the leaves. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Wednesday night the upper level low will continue to move southeastward over Eastern Maine and New Brunswick. This will bring some instability over northern Maine, with the potential for showers over Eastern Maine. Cold air behind this low brings the possibility of snow mixing in during the early morning hours on Thursday. This should be fairly short-lived as temperatures warm with diurnal heating. Winds will also be somewhat gusty Wednesday night and Thursday as approaching high pressure tightens the gradient. Gusts of 20 to 25 mph are likely for most of the area, possibly reaching 30 to 35 mph over the highest terrain. By Thursday night, the main trough axis will have shifted far enough eastward that Maine will feel more of the influence of the ridge, and winds will slowly decrease through the evening. Temperatures will remain in the mid 30s over the eastern half of the forecast area, while over the western half, the atmosphere will decouple and temps will drop into the upper 20s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Cooler temperatures will last through Saturday morning, with highs on Friday in the mid-50s and morning lows on Saturday generally below freezing for the northern half of the forecast area. On Saturday, the apex of the ridge will move eastward and return flow will begin to affect the region. There is some question as to whether a weak warm front will cross the area on Sunday, bringing showers with it. Due to model uncertainty, forecast only contains a chance of showers for now. What is more certain however, is that warming temperatures are expected with southwest flow. Highs on Sunday will be unseasonably warm, reaching the low to mid-60s. The likelihood of precipitation increases Monday and Tuesday, as a cold front associated with the same system approaches from the west. Monday looks like the best chance for widespread precipitation in a while. After Monday, models have significantly different solutions for the main low, so confidence in the pattern for Tuesday at the moment is low. However, a cooling trend will return and the weather is expected to be more seasonable. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR cigs. VCSH at southern terms this morning. Mainly VFR through tomorrow. Winds today light and variable. Tonight continued light and variable shifting NW late. VFR tomorrow, cannot rule out brief SCT MVFR cigs over northern terms tomorrow afternoon. Areawide NW winds 10-15kt gusting 20-25kt. SHORT TERM: Weds night...VFR for southern sites. VFR/MVFR for northern sites becoming MVFR late. NNW winds 10-15 kts with gusts to around 25 kts. Thurs...VFR for southern sites. MVFR for northern sites improving to VFR in the afternoon. NNW winds 10-15 kts with gusts to around 25 kts during the day. Thurs night through Sat...VFR. NNW winds 10 to 15 kts, weakening on Friday and becoming light and variable on Saturday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds subsiding below SCA this morning but long period swells remain. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 5AM Wednesday for the intra-coastal waters and 8PM Wednesday for the coastal waters. Seas 7-11ft this morning subsiding to 5-8ft this afternoon with periods of 10-12sec. Seas generally lower at 3-6ft along the Hague Line near the Bay of Fundy. Tonight the winds will shift NW and seas subsiding to between 4 and 6ft. Tomorrow NW winds will increase and gusts may approach SCA levels by late day. Seas generally 4-5ft except 3-4ft near the Hague Line and Bay of Fundy. Sea surface water temperature are in the 53-55F range from the Downeast coast out 25nm and east to the Hague Line including Passamaquoddy and Penobscot bays. SHORT TERM: Small craft winds will remain present through Thursday, gusting up to 30 kts. Some possibility for min gales exists in the very outer waters on Thursday, although at this point it is a low chance. Winds will finally decrease below 25 kts on Friday. Seas during this period will be generally 4 to 6 feet on Thursday, subsiding to 3 to 5 on Friday. Offshore flow will keep higher seas further offshore during the short term. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ052. && $$ Near Term...JS Short Term...LF Long Term...LF Aviation...JS/LF Marine...JS/LF