926
FXUS61 KCAR 131801
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
201 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach tonight and cross the area Sunday.
High pressure will build over the region Monday into Tuesday
then move east of the area Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The cold moving across Quebec will enter into the region
tonight. For this evening, the current shortwave moving across
the state will begin to exit to the east. High res models show
the could deck moving off the Downeast coast before midnight.
Upper air model soundings show the clouds ahead of the cold
front will move into the North Woods around midnight. The timing
of the next round of clouds will play into how low the temps
will get tonight. Due to the return flow, decided to side with
the NBM and keep temps in to mid to low 40s.

For Sunday, the cold front will move across the region. High
res models have greatly decreased the amount of rain expected
with this system. More models are in better agreement with rain
in the form of isolated to scattered afternoon convective
showers. Decided to leave the isolated thunderstorms in the
afternoon, due to the warmer temps in the 70s and the rapid
developing instability along the front.

For Sunday night, the front will exit over the waters and rain
showers should move off the coast after midnight. High pressure
will settle in for the rest of the night. Patchy fog will
develop in low terrain and river valleys. Due to the clouds
clearing, decided to decrease guidance temps with low 40s in the
north and low 50s in the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Very quiet weather Monday trough Tuesday with surface high
pressure centered over the area, upper level high pressure
centered a bit to our west, and vertically stacked low pressure
around the North Carolina/Virginia coast. This is a blocking
pattern, and very little changes from Monday into Tuesday other
than a bit of warming on Tuesday. Highs Monday in the upper 60s
to mid 70s, and mid to upper 70s Tuesday. Lows Monday night
still seasonably cool with 40s to low 50s, but no frost. With
good decoupling and mostly clear skies Monday night, look for
patchy valley fog again. Skies Monday through Tuesday generally
mostly clear, with just a few cirrus spilling in from the
northwest and a couple daytime fair-weather cumulus. No rain
Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The blocking pattern discussed above continues Wednesday and
Thursday, with upper level high pressure over the area. This
means continued dry weather and mostly sunny skies, with patchy
early morning fog. Temperatures warm a bit more toward
Wednesday and Thursday, and NBM has been trending a bit warmer
with temps these days. Went a touch warmer than NBM for high
temperatures both days, with generally upper 70s to low 80s.
This will definitely be warmer than average, but not quite
record levels. Dewpoints generally in the 50s, so heat indices
won`t be running any higher than the air temperatures.

Thursday night into the weekend, models disagree significant as
to how the pattern evolves. Sometime Thursday night into
Friday, most models bring a decent cold front through from north
to south. While this looks like a front with a decent thermal
gradient, it`s unlikely to tap into any moisture from the
south like a lot of systems lately, and we are only looking at
a chance of rain around Friday. Most models have dry/cooler
weather for the weekend, but a minority of models/ensembles
bring in increased moisture from the west/southwest overrunning
the cooler air at low-levels. The chance of seeing wetting rain
over the weekend looks to be less than 25 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions for all terminals tonight, Sunday, and
Sunday night. Possible MVFR conditions in isolated showers
Sunday afternoon for north terminals. Light S winds tonight,
then switching to NNW Sunday into Sunday night.


SHORT TERM: VFR other than patchy valley fog 3z to 13z each day,
with could bring local LIFR conditions. Best shot at the fog is
PQI, HUL, and BGR. Winds generally less than 10 kts, with a
general backing of wind direction from NW to S through the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels tonight,
Sunday, and Sunday night.


SHORT TERM: Winds 10 kts or less and seas less than 3 ft through
Thursday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...LaFlash
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...LaFlash/Foisy
Marine...LaFlash/Foisy