610
FXUS61 KCAR 131828
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
228 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly exits to the east through Tuesday as a coastal
low passes well to the south off the Mid-Atlantic coast. A cold
front crosses Maine Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, followed by
high pressure building in from the west through Friday night. A warm
front lifts to the north on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains in place near the Gaspe Peninsula and is
contributing to subsidence over much of the region. The
subsidence is resulting in considerable dry air at low and mid
levels and preventing much of the precipitation seen Downeast on
radar from reaching the ground. Thus, have reduced chances for
precipitation through tonight as the dry air is likely to stick
around. Only expecting a few isolated showers in the Bar Harbor
area with possible scattered showers offshore. Gusty winds, high
seas, and the potential for dangerous nearshore surf continue
along the coast through Tuesday. Rip currents and sneaker waves
will lead to dangerous beach conditions. Waves crashing against
rocks can splash violently upward and wash onlookers out to
sea. Some minor beach erosion is possible. Our messaging is if
you plan to be along the shoreline, keep your distance from the
water, and never turn your back on the ocean. Winds and seas
should be on a downward trend beginning this evening as the
Noreaster begins to move east offshore. However, seas will be
much slower than winds to decrease.

Farther north tonight, calm winds and breaks in the clouds
should contribute to some decoupling. Temperatures are expected
to dip into the low 30s and thus have added widespread frost to
much of northern Maine. Some fog possible but low confidence
due to the cloud cover. As the Noreaster begins to exit the
region on Tuesday, a weak shortwave pushes through the area
along with a weak cold front. Precipitation chances are fairly
low across the region due to the modest forcing as well as ample
low-level dry air exhibited by model soundings. Winds will
become breezy Tuesday night behind the front which should keep
temperatures on the warmer side and also prevent fog
development.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A developing northern stream closed low crosses Maine Wednesday,
then stalls over New Brunswick Wednesday night and Thursday. The
result will be isolated to scattered showers, mainly across Eastern
Maine. On Wednesday night, it could be could enough for the showers
to mix with or change to all snow across portions of the Northwoods.
At this time no accumulation is expected, except for possibly at the
top of Katahdin.

Highs on Wednesday should be a few degrees below normal, with lows
Wednesday night near normal. Highs on Thursday should be around 5
degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The closed upper low slides offshore Thursday night, then slowly
exits to the southeast through Friday. A few isolated showers near
the eastern boarder with Canada cannot be ruled out.

Deep layered ridging builds in Friday night through Saturday night.
It should be dry, though there is a small number of ensemble members
who exit the ridge axis to the east by late Saturday night allowing
for a slight chance of showers late Saturday night over far W zones.

The region is under SW flow aloft Sunday and Sunday night, with a
gradually increasing chance of showers from W to E.

A northern stream closed low approaches Monday - and depending on
how fast it moves in - will determine the coverage and intensity of
showers during the day. For now going with low end likely pops,
though still not completely convinced the timing on this system will
not change.

Temperatures should be near to slightly below normal Thursday night-
Saturday, then above normal Saturday night-Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
Tonight...VFR. VCSH possible for BHB but dry elsewhere. BR/BCFG
possible at northern terminals, especially HUL and PQI but too
low confidence to include in TAF. Winds light and variable in
the north and 5-10kts out of the E/NE for BGR/BHB.

Tuesday...VFR. VCSH possible at all terminals. Winds N/NE around
5 kts at southern terminals early, becoming light and variable
everywhere in the afternoon.

Tuesday night...VFR. Light and variable winds increase to
5-10 kts out of the NW.

SHORT TERM:

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory remains in effect for the
intra coastal waters through 8 PM Tuesday and for the outer
waters through 8 AM Wednesday. NE winds 15-25 kts with gusts up
to 30 kts will gradually decrease tonight, becoming 5 to 10 kts
by Tuesday evening. Seas 8 to 11 ft with a period of 10-12
seconds this afternoon will decrease much slower than the winds
and stay above small craft advisory criteria through Tuesday
night. A few isolated rain showers are also possible through
Tuesday night.


SHORT TERM:
Wednesday-Thursday night...MVFR possible, with the best chance
at terminals near the eastern boarder with Canada, otherwise
VFR. NW winds G15-30KT possible Wednesday through Thursday.

Friday-Saturday...VFR. NW winds G15-20KT possible Friday
afternoon.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...SM
Short Term...PM
Long Term...PM
Aviation...SM/PM
Marine...SM/PM