461
FXUS61 KCAR 100040
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
740 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure crosses the area tonight through Monday, then
moves north of the region Tuesday. Upper level disturbances will
cross the region Wednesday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
740 am update...
Low pressure currently located over northern New Jersey with
inverted trof extending up into northern New England.
Overrunning pcpn has made it into nrn Maine as of 00z and
continues to move into nrn Aroostook. Expect snow should begin
over the St. John Valley within the next 1-2 hours. Light snow
amounting to a dusting occurred in the Central Highlands from
latest webcams. Further east, very little fell with the Bangor
Region having reported just rain mixed with some sleet and
briefly with snow this afternoon. Cold air damming can be seen
in the typical places with BGR at 37 degrees and Greenville
stuck around 30 degrees.

00z raob out of KCAR shows the warm nose around 800mb up near
negative 1C and with winds around this level out of the
southwest and not expected to back from the south for another
few hours, expect that snow should continue over nrn areas thru
midnight. Pcpn should then lighten around midnight before LLJ
and next wave moves in from the south, giving added lift to
pcpn. This likely to keep pcpn falling as snow over nrn
Aroostook before weakening around daybreak, mixing with rain
around 4am. Warm nose likely to remain below 0C over the North
Woods until closer to sunrise, holding onto a snow/fzra mix
before falling as all rain after daybreak.

Total snowfall amounts still expected to be around 0.5-1 inch
over nrn Aroostook with a dusting expected to the south. Still
expecting slick conditions over the north by morning with ice
accums ranging from a glaze to 0.10 inches.

Prev discussion blo...
Ridging moves east of the region today, as a deepening low
pressure system to the southwest moves into New England this
evening. Associated warm front brings some warm air advection in
from the south to the north by daybreak. Wind speeds begin to
pick up this evening, with some gusts up to 20 mph possible
overnight into tomorrow. Moisture advects in, with rain and snow
showers beginning Downeast this evening, gradually moving north
through the night. Relatively tight rain/snow line going
through central Maine. Northwards of I-95 will see snow, rain
and snow mix in the Bangor/Upper Penobscot Valley, and rain
along the coast. Current afternoon temperatures are teetering in
the mid-30s, so mixed precipitation has been reported so far in
the Bangor region.

Tonight, warm air advects into Downeast Maine, raising
temperatures into the low-40s, keeping precipitation as rain.
Rain/snow line rises up to the Central Highlands into portions
of southern Aroostook. North Woods and Central Aroostook
forecast to get snowfall. Snow total accumulations around an
inch or two in the North Woods, and potentially arnd half an
inch in eastern Aroostook. Based on soundings, there is a
periods after midnight, where freezing rain in Aroostook county
and the North Woods is expected. Ice accumulations expected to
be less than a tenth of an inch, with the heaviest accumulations
in the North Woods. Winter Weather Advisory in effect later
tonight, so prepare for poor driving conditions during this
period, especially for late night / early morning commuters.
Exercise caution when driving in freezing rain, especially on
bridges and overpasses. Freezing rain will quickly transition
over to rain by daybreak, with snow and ice accumulations
expected to melt off as temperatures rise. Overnight lows in the
upper-20s in the north, low-30s in the Central Highlands
region, and upper-30s to low-40s Downeast. There is a surface
trough to set up in central Maine, which could result in some
cold air damming in the Central Highlands overnight into
tomorrow. With southerly flow along the coastline, there is a
potential for some low-stratus and/or fog along the coast
tonight, which would reduce visibility.

Tomorrow, low pressure approaches Maine from the southwest, and
rain showers persist throughout the day. As cold front
approaches, there is minimal elevated instability that could
lead to a rumble of thunder Downeast or over the waters, but
very marginal. That being said, MUCAPE around 200-400 J/kg, and
there is decent low-level shear and helicity, so will not rule
it out. Daytime highs in the low-40s in the north, low-50s in
eastern and central Maine, and upper-50s Downeast.

Tomorrow night, low pressure finally swings through Maine from
southwest. Increased cloud cover, and rain transitions over to
snow ion the North Woods, as temperatures drop. Overnight lows
in the upper-20s and low-30s in the North Woods, mid-30s in
Eastern Maine, and low-40s Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure centered north of Maine will lift toward western
Labrador Tuesday, while an upper trof crosses the forecast area.
Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of rain/snow
showers across northern areas Tuesday, with partly sunny/mostly
cloudy skies along with a chance of rain showers Downeast. The
upper trof exits across the Maritimes Tuesday night, with high
pressure building toward the region late. Expect mostly cloudy
skies along with a chance of rain/snow showers across northern
areas early Tuesday night, with partly/mostly cloudy skies late.
Across Downeast areas, could have a slight chance of rain/snow
showers early with otherwise partly cloudy skies. High pressure
briefly crosses the region early Wednesday. Another upper level
disturbance and occluded front then approach later Wednesday.
Clouds increase Wednesday. Will also have a chance of afternoon
rain/snow showers north, with a chance of afternoon rain showers
Downeast. Upper level troffing will develop Wednesday night,
while the initial upper disturbance exits. Expect mostly cloudy
skies along with a chance of snow showers across northern areas
Wednesday night. A slight chance of snow showers are possible
across Downeast areas early Wednesday night, with otherwise
partly/mostly cloudy skies. Expect near normal, to slightly
below normal, level temperatures Tuesday. Slightly below normal
level temperatures are expected Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level troffing will remain across the region Thursday/Friday
while a series of difficult to time disturbances move through the
trof. Will have a chance of rain/snow showers across northern areas
Thursday, with a chance of snow showers Thursday night. Across
Downeast areas, expect a chance of rain showers Thursday with a
slight chance of rain/snow showers early Thursday night. Expect
mostly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of rain/snow showers
across northern areas Friday, with generally partly cloudy skies
Downeast. The upper trof should begin to exit across the Maritimes
Saturday, though how rapidly this occurs is still uncertain. High
pressure should then begin to build toward the region late.
Generally expect partly/mostly cloudy skies north, partly cloudy
Downeast, Saturday. However, if the upper trof is slower to exit
could also still have a slight chance of rain/snow showers across
the north and mountains. High pressure should cross the region
Sunday, with a warm front possibly starting to approach late.
Generally expect partly/mostly cloudy skies Sunday. Dependent on the
timing of the warm front, could also have a slight chance of
afternoon rain/snow showers north, slight chance of afternoon rain
showers Downeast. Expect slightly below normal level temperatures
Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR will diminish to MVFR over the next
hour or two as light snow moves in. HUL likely to see pcpn
transition to rain by 04z with nrn sites transitioning between
07-09z. FVE looks to be fully into rain by 12z. IFR vsbys
expected in snow overnight with cigs diminishing to LIFR in the
afternoon

KBGR/KBHB: MVFR will diminish further to IFR cigs by 06z.
Terminals will see rain next 24 hours, varying in intensity.
LIFR cigs move in after 13z Monday.

All terminals will see LLWS out of the southeast between 35-45
kts overnight with Aroostook terminals keeping LLWS into the
afternoon.

SHORT TERM:

Tuesday...Occasional IFR possible early. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR. A
chance of rain/snow showers north, with a chance of rain showers
Downeast. West/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to
around 20 knots.

Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers north. VFR
Downeast with a slight chance of rain/snow showers early. West winds
10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of rain/snow showers north. A chance
of rain showers Downeast. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots.

Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR with a chance of snow showers north.
VFR/MVFR Downeast with a slight chance of early rain/snow showers.
Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of rain/snow showers north. A slight
chance of rain showers Downeast. West/northwest winds around 10
knots.

Thursday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers north. VFR
Downeast with a slight chance of rain/snow showers early.
North/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow/rain showers
north. VFR Downeast. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts
up to 20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Waters are below Small Craft Conditions this
evening, before wind gusts begin to ramp up late tonight into
high-end Small Craft Advisory conditions. Winds from the E,
shifting to the SE, with a few Gale level gusts up to 35 kts
possible tonight. Seas 6-8 ft possible over all waters. Rain
late tonight through tomorrow. Potential for some fog over the
waters early tomorrow morning. Potential for some isolated
rumbles of thunder over the waters tomorrow afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions early Tuesday. A Gale
Watch has been issued for Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday.
Small craft advisory conditions later Wednesday into Wednesday
night. A chance of rain showers Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for MEZ001>006-
     010.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ050>052.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning
     for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...ASB/21
Short Term...CN
Long Term...CN
Aviation...ASB/21/CN
Marine...ASB/21/CN