119
FXUS61 KCAR 070545
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
145 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move east of the region today as a cold front
approaches. The cold front will slowly cross the area tonight
through early Wednesday. High pressure will build in Wednesday night
through Friday. A weather disturbance will cross northern areas
Friday night followed by a return of high pressure on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A continuing very warm return flow behind high pressure to our
southeast will combine with an approaching cold front to bring
another exceptionally warm day across the area today with inland
temperatures topping 80 in most places. A mostly sunny morning will
be followed by increasing clouds from the northwest as the cold
front approaches. Showers may begin to press into the northwest
ahead of the front late today and a few spots may have an isolated
thunderstorm. The NAM continues to advertise some CAPE up to around
200 J/KG while the GFS still shows too much capping for convection.
Frontal convergence may help spawn some convection over the
northwestern edge of our area at the end of the day.

The cold front will slowly press across the region tonight. Strong
frontal convergence and moisture ahead of the front is expected to
support a solid band of rain over the area and some of the guidance
is suggesting there may be narrow bands of heavier showers over the
north. The rain may begin to taper off over far northwestern areas
very late tonight as the front continues pushing south.

The front will continue south toward the coast Wednesday morning. A
solid band of rain will continue from central areas on across the
south early Wednesday morning. Rain will taper off from northwest to
southeast through the day on Wednesday as the front pushes offshore.
A large high pressure system centered over the Great Lakes will
begin pushing much cooler and drier air in from Eastern Canada on
gusty northwest winds Wednesday afternoon as clearing pushes in from
the west and north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will be located south of the Gulf of Maine Wednesday
evening with showers rapidly coming to an end over the waters. Cold
air from Canada will be advecting in with low-level jet and tight
pressure gradient resulting in continued gusty northwest winds.
Higher elevations likely to see gusts upwards of 25-30mph during the
nighttime hours. Skies will slowly clear late, especially over
Downeast. Cannot rule out stratocu moving in over the north as upr
trof lingers to our west. Either way, frost looks to develop over
the valleys in the North Woods after midnight. Cannot rule out light
snow showers mixing in over the St. John Valley for a brief period
of time with trof passage.

Pressure gradient very slowly relaxes on Thursday, though with low-
level jet remaining from 25-30kts in the morning/early afternoon,
expect that northwest winds will gust to around 30mph.  High will
run about 7-10 degrees below normal with highs in the u40s/nr 50
north and mid-upr 50s south. H5 trof moves east into NB during the
afternoon with partly cloudy skies over the northeast before
clearing late.

H5 ridge will begin building in late Thursday night with center of
sfc high over western New England. Clear skies and a light west wind
overnight likely to support temps dropping below freezing for all
locations. Have trended down from NBM temps with lower 20s for
deeper valleys over the northwest and freezing temps elsewhere. Have
added in widespread frost overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An extended period of high pressure looks to return Friday morning
into early next week. Temperatures moderate through the long term
with 60s making a return on Saturday and sticking around through at
least Monday of next week. Operational models indicate potential
tropical system over the southeast will be making it/s way up the
Atlantic coast but where it goes from there is anyone/s guess.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
Today...Patchy low clouds or fog may briefly result in IFR or MVFR
conditions along the coast early this morning. Otherwise, VFR
conditions today with a gusty SW wind.

Tonight...MVFR dropping to IFR north early tonight. VFR dropping to
MVFR then IFR south later tonight. SW wind shear possible across the
north early tonight and the south late tonight. Winds SW, becoming
NW over the north late tonight.

Wednesday...MVFR improving to VFR north. IFR south, improving to VFR
late. Gusty NW winds over the north and SW winds becoming NW over
the south.

SHORT TERM:
Wednesday night...Brief MVFR cigs possible over nrn Aroostook
terminals with VFR elsewhere. NW 10-20kts.

Thursday...VFR. NW 10-20kts, gusts to 25kts in the afternoon.

Thursday night-Saturday...VFR. Light W becoming WSW 5-10kts Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
A SCA will be up from late this afternoon through tonight for SW
winds gusting over 25 kt and seas up to 5 ft late today and 6 to
7 ft tonight. Winds will diminish as the front moves over the
waters Wednesday. Humid air over the cooler waters may result in
some fog and mist today, tonight and into Wednesday with
improving vsby late Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: Northwest winds behind cold front Wednesday night will
gust to aoa 25kts into Thursday afternoon before diminishing. Seas
range from 2-3 feet over the outer waters with seas 1 foot or less
over the intracoastal zone through the end of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather will continue through much of the day today.
Afternoon relative humidity will generally range from 40 to 50
percent away from the immediate coast, where it will be higher.
Southwest winds will gust from 20 to 25 mph at times in the
afternoon.

A wetting rain is expected tonight into early Wednesday with
rainfall totals of up to an inch possible. Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday should see a return of dry and much cooler
conditions with gusty northerly winds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are possible again today.

Record High Temperatures for Tuesday October 7th:

Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High
Caribou               76/2016        81
Bangor                84/1946        79
Millinocket           81/1946        81
Houlton               76/2016        80

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...MB
Short Term...21
Long Term...21
Aviation...MB/21
Marine...MB/21
Fire Weather...MB
Climate...MB