418
FXUS61 KCAR 152107
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
507 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in at the surface through Friday as an area
of low pressure aloft tracks from Northern New Brunswick to the
waters south of Nova Scotia. This high builds overhead Friday
night through Saturday night, then slowly slides to the east
through Sunday night. A complex storm system approaches from the
west Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

5 PM Update...As a shortwave along the periphery of the closed
upper low dives south across western Maine, this has resulted in
enough lift for showers to develop over northern Maine. Added
isolated showers in the north through this evening.

A closed low tracks from near the mouth of the Saint Lawrence
River this evening to near the mouth of the Gulf of Maine by
Thursday evening, then to the waters south of Nova Scotia by
late Thursday night.

The result will be sky conditions becoming overcast tonight,
then showers moving in from the NE tonight, mixing with and
possibly changing to all snow showers over the North
Woods/Katahdin Region, then changing back to all rain showers
for elevations below 2000 ft Thursday morning. Showers should
then taper off from NW to SE Thursday night, except for maybe
coastal Downeast where they could linger through the night. Any
snow accumulation should be minimal, less than an inch and
generally only a dusting at most locations below 1000 ft.
Rainfall should be light with western areas receiving less than
a tenth of an inch, and eastern areas one to two tenths of an
inch. Winds will be gusty Thursday and Thursday night with gusts
of 20-35 mph, strongest near the coast and at higher
elevations.

Lows tonight should range from around 30 to around 40, which is
near normal. Highs Thursday should generally be from the lower
40s to lower 50s, which is around 5-10 degrees below normal.
Lows Thursday night should be near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure that was east of Maine continues to move out into
the Atlantic, as a high pressure and ridging builds in from the
west. This results in a calm and dry weekend, with an
increasing temperature trend, as highs rise into the 50s and
60s. Pressure gradient between the high and the low leads to
some breezy conditions on Friday, which will gradually
settle throughout the rest of the weekend. Skies clear to
partially cloudy with ridging pattern. Mostly clear skies
overnight should drop overnight lows below freezing in the north
Friday night, and 30s and 40s Downeast. 30s and 40s across the
state Saturday night. Potential for frost in the north Friday
night and Saturday night, along with some river valley fog.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure stays over Maine until Monday, as a low pressure
system begins to move in early next week. Models, however, are
disagreeing on what this system is going to do. Currently, GFS
seems to favor an occluding low solution that moves in from the
west, moving over central Maine, bringing rain Monday into
Tuesday. The EURO, however, has a coastal low system sliding
along the Gulf of Maine Tuesday, that would cross central Maine
and merge with a Canadian low by Wednesday. This solution brings
rain Tuesday into Tuesday night, from the south to the north.
Both solutions favor roughly half an inch to an inch of rain
possible, but the timing is very uncertain right now. Breezy
winds possible with this system early next week. Decreasing
daytime high trend, with maxes in the 60s early next week,
becoming closer to the 50s by middle of the week. Overnight
lows generally in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: High confidence in VFR through 21Z. MVFR conditions
then build in from NE to SW starting at KFVE late this
afternoon/early this evening and reaching BGR/BHB late
tonight/early Thursday morning. IFR conditions are probable at
northern terminals by early Thursday morning, otherwise it
should be MVFR on Thursday. N-NW winds G15-25KT, should lose
their gustiness this evening at all but KFVE and KCAR. Winds
then become gusty again (G20-25KT) at all but KPQI late
tonight/early Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM:
Friday - Saturday night: VFR across all terminals. NW winds 10
to 15 kts gusting 20 to 25 kts Fri, decreasing to 5 to 10 kts
Fri night through Sat night.

Sunday: Generally VFR across all terminals, though cigs will
begin to fall towards MVFR heading into Sun night. S winds 5 to
10 kts.

Monday: MVFR ceilings and rain showers possible. S/SE winds at
5-10 kts with gusts 15-20 kts possible during the day.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA conditions continue on the coastal ocean waters
tonight. With increasing confidence in gales on the coastal
ocean waters Thursday/Thursday night, have issued a Gale
Warning there from 6am Thursday-8am Friday. Also, have high
confidence in SCA conditions tonight through Thursday night on
the intra-coastal waters so have an SCA there from 6pm tonight
through 6am Friday.

SHORT TERM: Seas and winds fall below Small Craft Advisory by
the Friday afternoon. Seas at or below 4ft over the outer
waters, and at or below 3 ft over the inter-coastals this
weekend. Winds from the N on Friday, around 15-20 kts with a few
gusts up to 25 kts over outer waters possible before conditions
relax by the afternoon. Winds shift to the NW Saturday night
and become light. Winds again shift to the S on Sunday. Rain may
move in early next week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050-051.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050-
     051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...PM/SM
Short Term...ASB
Long Term...ASB
Aviation...PM/SM/ASB
Marine...PM/SM/ASB