465
FXUS61 KCAR 071853
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
253 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front slowly crosses the area tonight through early
Wednesday. High pressure will build in Wednesday night through
Friday. A weather disturbance will cross northern areas Friday
night followed by a return of high pressure on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Calm this afternoon, as a front moves through New England this
evening and tonight, with rain and clouds moving into the
western zones. In terms of instability, there is a slight
chance for some rumbles of thunder across northern Maine this
evening through the night, but instability is not really
favorable for significant convection to occur. CAPE is minimal
(roughly 200mb), lapse rates are not impressive, but the front
does bring a good source of lift. PWATs are roughly 1.5 inches
with this system, and there may be some locally higher rainfall
amounts, primarily in the northwestern North Woods, and southern
Aroostook region. Gusty winds this evening through tonight, as
low level winds and pressure gradient tighten up. Wind direction
currently southwesterly, which will shift to the northwest as
the front passes. Not expecting much cool down for Downeast
region tonight ahead of the warm front, alongside plentiful
cloud cover to trap heat. Behind the front, however, northern
Maine overnight lows in the mid 40s. Could be some patchy fog
when rain settles down in the north.

Tomorrow, after the front passes, high pressure from the mid-
west builds into New England, with cold and dry air settling
over the area. Overcast skies,. With high temperatures expected
to be in the 50s in the north, and low 60s Downeast. Northwest
winds behind the front. Skies begin to clear out Wednesday
night, with some lower temperatures in the low 30s in the north,
and upper-30s Downeast. Potential for some frost and freeze
throughout northern and eastern Maine Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure begins to build into the area behind the previous
frontal passage, leading to clearing skies and the return of dry
weather. As the high pressure begins to move in, a tightened
pressure gradient will lead to breezy conditions through the day
on Thursday. The associated cold air advection will lead to
temperatures only lifting into the lower 50s, to mid 50s along
the coast. The north could even struggle to escape the 40s
through Thursday afternoon.

For Thursday night, temperatures will continue to drop, this
time due to radiational cooling as winds diminish and skies
remain clear. Temperatures will likely fall below freezing
across the majority of the forecast area, with widespread frost
development expected.

As high pressure remains over the area on Friday, temperatures
will slowly rebound, lifting into the mid to upper 50s
throughout the region. Skies will remain mostly clear due to the
robust high pressure and dry air mass.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The ridge of high pressure will dominate the synoptic pattern
over northern and eastern Maine through the weekend and into
early next week. Pressure could top out at around 1030 mb and
maintain mostly clear skies and dry weather for the region.
Temperatures may slowly climb each day, reaching back into the
lower 60s by early next week. A low pressure system may approach
from the south, but current consensus across ensemble members
suggests that the ridge of high pressure will be strong enough
to keep any disturbances away from the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR this afternoon, before becoming MVFR as
rain begins to push in from the west overnight with frontal
passage. Skies quickly become overcast along the front as well.
There is a slight chance for some thunder, but kept it out of
the TAFs due to low confidence. Window of LLWS for northern
terminals tonight. Rain will become heavy late tonight, through
early morning Wednesday. Winds shift from SW to NW overnight,
generally around 10 kts. Gusts up to 25 kts possible this
evening and tomorrow evening. Ceilings lift gradually
throughout the morning on Wednesday.

KBGR/KBHB: VFR this afternoon at KBGR, and IFR at KBHB from
passing low-level clouds along the coast. Skies quickly become
overcast along the passing front. There is a slight chance for
some thunder, but kept it out of the TAFs due to low confidence.
Window of LLWS late tonight. Rain will become heavy late
tonight, through the day on Wednesday. Winds shift from SW to NW
overnight, generally around 10 kts. Gusts up to 25kts possible
this evening and tomorrow evening.


SHORT TERM:
Thurs: VFR across all terminals. NW winds 10 to 15 kts with
gusts 25 to 30 kts.

Thurs night-Sun: VFR across all terminals. Light WSW winds
becoming 5 to 10 kts on Fri, then W 5 to 10 kts on Sat, and N
around 5 kts on Sun. Winds light and variable each night.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Small Craft Advisory up this evening through
tomorrow morning for the intra-coastals, and through tomorrow
afternoon for the outer waters. Wind gusts up to 30 kts
expected, and seas 4-7 ft. Winds from the SW this afternoon,
becoming SW by late tonight. Rain begins early tomorrow morning,
becoming heavy over the waters in the afternoon/evening time.


SHORT TERM: Winds will continue to gust 25 to 30 kts Thursday
morning, but gradually improve through the day on Thursday,
while seas remain below 5 ft. Winds and seas will then remain
below small craft advisory levels through the end of the week
and into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather will continue through the rest of the evening.
Afternoon relative humidity will generally range from 40 to 50
percent inland, and 60 to 70 percent along the coast. Southwest
winds will gust from 20 to 25 mph at times this afternoon into
evening.

A wetting rain is expected tonight into early Wednesday with
rainfall totals of up to an inch possible. Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday should see a return of dry and much cooler
conditions with gusty northerly winds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are possible again today.

Record High Temperatures for Tuesday October 7th:

Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High
Caribou               76/2016        81
Bangor                84/1946        79
Millinocket           81/1946        81
Houlton               76/2016        80


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...ASB
Short Term...AES
Long Term...AES
Aviation...ASB/AES
Marine...ASB/AES
Fire Weather...ASB
Climate...ASB