448
FXUS61 KCAR 190208
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1008 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the region overnight and crests
south of the region Saturday. Another cold front will approach
from the northwest on Sunday and cross the area Sunday
afternoon. High pressure will build in from the west on Monday
and crest over the area Tuesday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
Have issued a Beach Hazards Statement for the Downeast Coast
tomorrow with this update. High pressure will build across the
region overnight with with clear/mostly clear skies. Low
temperatures will range from the lower to mid 50s north, to the
mid to upper 50s Downeast. Have also updated to adjust for
current conditions along with overnight temperatures and clouds.

Previous Discussion...
Surface high will build offshore late tonight allowing winds to
back toward the southwest on Saturday. Highs during the day
will climb back toward normal values. Diurnal cu is expected in
the afternoon with mid-high clouds increasing during the evening
hours as next surface front approaches from the north.

Upper lvl trough will drop into eastern Canada Saturday night with
subtle s/wvs bringing chance for showers across the far north late
in the evening before pressing southward.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Sunday: The upper level trof shifts across the midwest into New
England. Models are in better agreement with the cold front
timing. However, the timing and amount of QPF is still different
across the extended models. Vorticity shows a vort max moving
across the south, so sided with the NBM rain fall amounts being
higher in the south for Sunday.

Sunday night: The low pressure system will intensify and pick
up speed. This will push the rest of the rain out of the region
after midnight. The cold air behind the front is expected to be
much more substantial with 925mb model temps around 6C. In
addition, with clearing later in the night, temps could drop
into the upper 40s in the north and low to mid 50s in the south.

Monday: High pressure settles back into the region. Expect
partly sunny skies with breezy NW winds. Temps should each into
the mid 60s in the north and low 70s in the south.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure is expected to dominated the region through the
rest of the week. Temps should warm back towards the upper 70 to
low 80 by the end of week. The next round of rain shower may
reach the area this weekend, but extend models are very
inconsistent with the times and track. Decided to go with slight
chance with the NBM.
&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally VFR overnight through Saturday night.
Clouds gradually lower Saturday night from north to south but
remain VFR. Exception will be Downeast terminals late with
potential for MVFR/IFR cigs to move in toward Sunday morning.
West/northwest winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest
overnight. Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots Saturday.
South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots Saturday night.

SHORT TERM: Sunday...MVFR north. VFR south. Light SW wind.

Sunday night...VFR, briefly dropping to MVFR at times in showers
over the north. VFR south. NW wind becoming gusty.

Monday...VFR. gusty NW wind.

Monday night...VFR. Light NW wind.

Tuesday...VFR. Light NW wind.

Wed...VFR. SW winds.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
overnight through Saturday night.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions
through this time period.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Saturday through
     Saturday evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/Buster
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...Norcross/Buster/LaFlash
Marine...Norcross/LaFlash