638
FXUS61 KCAR 150735
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
235 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will remain over Eastern Canada through Saturday.
A new area of low pressure will develop along the coast Saturday
night and intensify as it lifts northeast into the Maritimes
Sunday into Sunday night. Low pressure will lift north across
Labrador Monday into Tuesday. High pressure will begin to build
in from the west on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Key Message...High confidence in a winter storm Saturday night
through Sunday that will produce accumulating snowfall in the
north and mainly rain Downeast. Highest totals in the North
Woods.

Low pressure over the maritimes is expected to retrograde
northwest across Newfoundland and northern Quebec today. A weak
corridor of high pressure will build in over the area between
the low to our northeast and a new low approaching from the
Great Lakes region. This should make for a dry day with minimal
cloud cover.

Clouds increase tonight ahead of an approaching low pressure
system moving in from the west. Secondary low development will
occur in the Gulf of Maine which will intensify and move along
the coast. Precipitation will begin just after midnight in
central areas before spreading northeast into eastern Aroostook
by daybreak. Expect precipitation to begin as snowfall
everywhere except along the immediate coast before warmer
maritime air wrapping around the east side of the low quickly
changes snow to rain Downeast. As the warmer air progresses
northward snow will gradually change to rain from south to
north. However, the warmer air will likely stay south of
Katahdin, keeping northern Maine in mostly snow. Expect the
highest totals over the North Woods region with progressively
lower totals towards the southern areas. One key area to watch
will be eastern Aroostook as snow totals will likely be lower
east of Route 11. This is because as the low moves into New
Brunswick by Sunday evening the warmer maritime air wrapping
around the system will approach this region. How far west the
low ends up and how much warm air wraps around the system will
be very important to snow totals. Another key player will be the
wind direction as the currently expected easterly winds will
favor downsloping. Currently thinking that eastern Aroostook
will only see a few inches during the day on Sunday with higher
totals to the west.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message...Snow continues Sunday night through early Monday,
mainly to the north of the Katahdin region, with slick travel
possible. Gusty Northwest winds on Monday.

Low pressure drifts east through the Canadian Maritimes Sunday night
with periods of snow continuing, mainly to the north of the Katahdin
region. There is still some uncertainty regarding precipitation
type. If the low tracks a bit farther west it is not totally out of
the question that there could be a snow/rain mix into Sunday evening
near the Maine/New Brunswick border. That could keep snow amounts
down a bit across eastern portions of Aroostook county. Mainly snow
is expected to the west of route 11 corridor. The Bangor region will
see a rain/snow mix before colder air behind the low changes
precipitation to snow showers Sunday night. Low pressure will
lift to the north of the region on Monday with any steadier snow
across northern areas tapering to showers by afternoon. The
pressure gradient will tighten behind the low with gusty west to
northwest winds expected on Monday. Could be some lingering
snow showers across the north Monday evening, otherwise it will
be partly to mostly cloudy across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message...Gusty West to Northwest winds continue Tuesday,
otherwise no hazardous weather expected.

Low pressure will remain well to our north across eastern Canada
with a mainly dry west to northwest flow expected through mid week.
High pressure begins to build across the area on Wednesday. The
high moves east off the coast Friday. Afternoon high temperatures
will continue a bit below normal for this time of year, then
moderate to near normal by late week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Primarily MVFR conditions expected through about 12z.
VFR through 6z tonight although a few low clouds may remain
through this morning. Conditions deteriorate after 6z to MVFR
and then IFR first at southern terminals and then at northern
terminals by mid-Sunday morning. IFR Sunday at all terminals but
southern terminals may improve to MVFR by late afternoon/early
evening. Snow, possibly mixing with rain for northern terminals
and mainly rain for southern terminals late Saturday night
through Sunday. NW winds around 10 kts today, becoming light and
variable in the evening. Winds increase to around 5 to 10 kts
kts out of the E by Sunday morning and eventually become N/NW by
the evening.

SHORT TERM:

Sunday night....MVFR/IFR. Snow. W to NW wind.

Monday...MVFR/IFR early north in snow showers. VFR for KBGR/KBHB.
Gusty W to NW wind.

Monday night through Tuesday...VFR. Gusty W to NW wind.

Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory is in effect for the outer
waters through 9 AM. Winds and seas remain below SCA criteria
through about midnight tonight and then winds increase to near
gale criteria through the evening.

SHORT TERM: A gale watch has been issued Sunday night through Monday
evening for the outer waters for the possibility of gusts to 35
to 40 kt.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday
     for MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for ANZ050-
     051.
     Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$


Near Term...SM
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...SM/TWD
Marine...SM/TWD