190
FXUS61 KCAR 301904
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
204 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front crosses early this evening, followed by a cold
front late tonight. A secondary cold front crosses the area on
Monday, followed by high pressure building in Monday night. A
coastal low approaches from the southwest on Tuesday, passes
offshore Tuesday night, then exits into the southern Canadian
Maritimes on Wednesday. A cold front then moves in Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Precipitation has started ahead of the warm front expected to
cross the area later this evening. At the moment, mostly snow is
falling across the region, with some sleet mixed in along the
coast. There will be a rapid transition to snow/rain mix and
then to all rain along the coast this afternoon, with a slightly
slower transition to a mix northward through eastern Aroostook
County. Overall accumulations will be greatest over the western
mountains, but even there less than 4" of snowfall is expected.
Eastward, 1 to 3" of snow is expected over the Rte 1/Rte 11
corridor. This will be lessened by the period of rainfall mixing
in later tonight.

Precipitation will end around midnight for all areas, with a
cold front expected to move through tomorrow morning. Some
concerns were raised for the potential of snow squalls with this
front, however the early morning timeframe is not conducive for
peak convective activity and the lowering amounts of QPF
expected with the front indicate that snow will be brief and not
as heavy as expected. Would not rule out a squall or two but
this should not be a widespread concern for tomorrow.

Colder air will follow behind the front and lows Monday night
will reach the single digits across northern Maine for the first
time this season.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key messages
-Noreaster may bring warning snowfall to interior Downeast and the
coast
-Cold temps Tuesday Night with wind chills near zero degrees

H5 trof will be moving east of the MS Vly Tuesday morning. Dry air
with the sfc ridge axis will remain over the CWA into the morning
hours. Upr system is currently crossing the intermountain west at
this time with a nor`easter looming early in the week. Latest 12z
guidance has shifted just slightly south with the developing
noreaster on Tuesday night, with the center moving just south of
Nova Scotia. Given this track, the best area for higher snow totals
likely to be south of a Danforth to Dover-Foxcroft line Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Cannot rule out some snow banding over interior
Downeast as the low wraps up. However, 12z EC has continued to
stick with the furthest south solution.

Snow exits the area Wednesday morning as low exits into the
Maritimes. Gusty north winds on the backside of the system will
funnel in cold air with temps dipping into the single digits acrs
the northwest. Wind chills will approach zero degrees Wednesday
morning. Ridge axis crests over the CWA on Wednesday with partly to
mostly sunny skies expected. Highs will run around 10 degrees blo
seasonal norms on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key messages
-Snow squalls possible on Thursday
-Very cold temps Thursday night with wind chills below -20F

Arctic cold front Wednesday evening will be draped from wrn Quebec
thru the Great Lakes. Front moves thru Thursday afternoon with snow
squalls possible, with steep low-level lapse rates and 25-30kt low
level jet behind front. Low temps likely to be below zero across the
north as H8 mb temps drop toward -25C. Winds remain well-mixed,
resulting in wind chill temps down below -20F late Thursday night.
Brief high pressure will build in Friday night with guidance
diverging on track of next lopres.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Current conditions are MVFR/IFR in cigs across the
north, with some IFR for vis in snow, particularly at the
FVE/CAR. Expect IFR/MVFR to continue through the overnight
hours, with some tempo LIFR when snow is actually falling. Rain
will mix in by later tonight across the north, raising
vis and keeping conditions at MVFR through the morning hours.
BHB/BGR are currently VFR, but expect some MVFR/IFR overnight
with falling rain. South winds will increase this evening and
will be quite gusty, with gusts over 25 kts possible.

Monday should be mostly VFR HUL, BGR, and BHB, but MVFR at
times mainly in the morning for PQI, CAR, FVE.  NW winds
increasing to around 15 gusting 25 kts.

SHORT TERM:
Tuesday-Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR in snow. S 5-10kts becoming NNE
5-15kts Tuesday evening, gusts to 20kts south.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...Mainly VFR. NNW 5-10kts becoming SSW
5-10kts Wednesday evening.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR tempo LIFR in snow showers. SSW 5-15kts,
gusting to 20-25kts.

Thursday night-Friday...Mainly VFR, though MVFR possible north.
W 5-15kts, gusts to 20kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Very high confidence in southerly gales late today
into this evening. Winds switch to westerly late tonight and
remain W/NW into Monday. As the switch happens, winds ease a
bit, and will be borderline gale/small craft. Seas build close
to 11 ft late tonight then ease to around 6 ft later Monday.

SHORT TERM: Gales possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Winds increase toward SCA levels Wednesday night with gales
once again behind cold front on Thursday. Winds diminish late on
Friday. Seas increase above 5ft Wednesday morning, remaining
elevated through Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
     morning for MEZ011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EST Monday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...LF
Short Term...21
Long Term...21
Aviation...LF/21
Marine...LF/21