Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
858 FXUS61 KCAR 010615 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 215 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track northeast across the Northern Maritimes today. High pressure will build in from the west tonight and Sunday and slide southeast of the area Monday. An occluded front will cross the area Monday night. High pressure will build to our south Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Strong surface low pressure and upper trough will rapidly exit northeast across the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Newfoundland today. A tight gradient behind the storm will bring strong gusty westerly winds. Northern areas will remain mostly cloudy with scattered showers while Downeast will turn out partly to mostly sunny in downsloping. The sky will become partly cloudy over the north and mostly clear Downeast tonight with winds gradually diminishing as the low continues away. It will become much cooler with lows in the 20s over the northwest and near freezing elsewhere. High pressure building to our southwest will bring a sunny day Downeast on Sunday. A bit of residual moisture over the north will bring a partly cloudy sky across the north. Winds will be much lighter Sunday as the high nears the region. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sfc ridge axis will be cresting over the area Sunday night as hipres slides offshore overnight. With light winds and clear skies over srn areas expect patchy fog to develop with patchy river valley fog expected over the north. Winds back around to the southwest toward daybreak ahead of next system approaching from Canada. Upper level disturbance currently heading twd the Pacific Northwest will track through Canada over the weekend. By 12z Monday sfc low will be located over Hudson Bay. Ridge axis will remain over most of the area on Monday as moisture approaches. Because of this have slowed down arrival of pops acrs the northwest Monday afternoon with with likely pops not arriving until the evening hours. With warm advection ahead of the boundary, temps will climb to near and/or slightly above normal for maxes. Fast moving system will bring rain showers to the area Monday night. Total rainfall amounts will be around 0.10 inches. Winds aloft will begin increasing twd the end of the period with gusts increasing twd 20mph late Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WNW winds will gust during the day on Tuesday with strong low-level winds and pressure gradient increasing with sfc low deepening over the Maritimes and hipres building into the central Appalachians. Winds remain strong during the overnight before lightening up on Wednesday afternoon. Latest guidance continues to be all over the board for the next system moving in from the Midwest, leading to continued uncertainty in solutions. 00z GFS, CMC and ECMWF AI models bringing late week storm south of the area. 00z EC has trended slightly further south and weaker than it/s prior run so will continue to cap pops at chance and lower pops over nrn areas. As mentioned by day shift either system will miss CWA entirely to the south or temps will warm enuf ahead of EC solution with a cold rain expected and by the time cold air moves in behind it, precip will end as a little bit of snow over the northwest. For all the snow lovers out there, you/ll likely have to wait a little bit longer! High pressure will build in late in the week. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions over the north and VFR conditions across the south are expected today. Strong gusty westerly winds 15 to 20 kt gusting to 30 kt. MVFR to VFR conditions north and VFR conditions south are expected tonight with west winds 10 to 15 kt gusting to 20 kt. VFR conditions throughout the area Sunday. West winds 10 kt gusting to 15 kt. SHORT TERM: Sunday night...VFR, though may see brief IFR vsbys in fog late. SSW 5kts. Monday...VFR. S 5-15kts. Monday night-Tuesday...MVFR/IFR in rain showers and low cigs. Conditions improve to VFR late Downeast terminals. SSW 5-15kts becoming W 10-20kts gusting to 25-30kts on Tuesday. Tuesday night-Wednesday...Mainly VFR. W 5-15kts gusting to 20-25 kts on Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A gale warning will continue today for strong gusty W winds. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Winds will diminish to SCA tonight then below SCA on Sunday. Sea subsiding to 6 ft late tonight then 4 ft on Sunday. SHORT TERM: Conditions remain below small craft levels through Monday with winds increasing to aoa sca Monday evening. Gale force winds possible on Tuesday through the evening hours. Winds diminish through Wednesday. Seas will increase to near 5ft late Monday night, especially over the outer waters and remain elevated through Tuesday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...MB Short Term...21 Long Term...21 Aviation...MB/21 Marine...MB/21